There are predictions for inflationary recession, there are predictions for deflationary recession, where prices go down because nobody wants to buy anything. From what I've heard, many stores are getting closed back in the States and they are offering very deep discounts. Do you know any product that got more expensive since last month?

Also, I expect that US government will take special measures to deal with increasing uneployment and, for example, give money to companies to pay people's salaries. Well, not exactly for free but in form of some low rate loans and they will be very forgiving to non-payers.

I doubt that outsourcing will be supported in this situation.

It's just my opinion after all. Let's just see what will happen.

Yes, Igor, food is rising considerably. Not as much as in Argentina, of course, however it is rising a lot by American standards. I hear complaints all the time from people living in the US. Anyway, the crisis has hardly even begun in the opinion of some economists. There is also strong speculation that the US will start to print money to deal with its debts and that that will cause inflation.

Sergio,

I am watching DBA as a proxy for food prices. It's been going down so far. I assume that when inflation takes place, it will go up.

Surely that 700Billion pumped into the US system could cause major inflation, although i'm sure they've thought of that! like in the 1920's when they burnt money to keep warm.
On another note, does anyone know a good website to follow the price of commodities? I've read that soy, wheat and so on is at 2007 price levels now but I would be interested to follow it to see what happens as I guess Argentina's economic future is largely dependant on this

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Buenos Aires Nightlife

I also believe so. But at the same time 700 billion is like 1/10th of total bank deposits in the US.

You can get current quotes on Yahoo.
For historicals check out http://futures.tradingcharts.com/menu.html

I think depression as in the title of the thread is probably a bit over dramatic, but the slowdown coming(just getting started in my opinion) will be very severe.

My guess is this will have a very negative impact on the economy in Argentina as commodity prices are taking a big hit. This will have an impact on both individuals and on the government. People that were making good money and investing in things like real estate probably will retrench their activities. Government revenues are going to fall, so it will be hard to maintain spending levels. Inflation will continue until economic activity is significantly reduced (probably next year) which should help moderate inflation. Tourism will be down as people from overseas won't have extra money to spend on vacations. This could impact a lot of expats that have temporary apartments as investments. Overall, I would guess the COL living for expats could flatten out or go down somewhat next year with a weaker peso and lower inflation.

Some level of social unrest I would say is possible as the incomes of a lot of Argentines has not kept up with inflation. All the same time a lot of the subsidies paid for by the government will be cut as they will no longer have the resources to pay for them. Unemployment there will probably increase as well.

Right now the risk to the world economy is deflation not inflation. The winners coming out of this mess will likely be the Asian economies. The U.S. and European economies will probably end up in a weaker position versus Asia when this is over.

Thanks this is a good site.
It will be interesting to see what happens with agricultural commodity prices over the next year, as although oil prices have collapsed in response to the world economic crisis, food commodities such as soya beans for example seem to be holding at a pretty good price considering (currently at mid 2007 levels). I guess that food is a much safer bet than oil to invest in.

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Buenos Aires Nightlife

http://www.portfoliopersonal.com/
In spanish. For prices' history I think you must do a Google particular search

Many believe that food prices will be the only commodity that will not crash in this crisis. In the coming years the price of wheat, meat, corn and soy will rise dramatically.

Argentina has the worlds best arable land and can technically feed 1 billion people I support the government in promoting substainable farming as the land of Argentina is it greatest asset and must be used carefully.

I am seeing more expats moving here than ever before due to the unease in the world and the threat of war . There will be an increase of military conflicts in the coming years creating a lot of displaced people. The Southern cone countries of Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay will see a huge increase of immigration soon.

I am an Italian citizen and on one hand you have immigrants (Romanian, Albanian...etc..) coming to Italy with only half willing to work. The others want to sell stolen goods on the streets and have hope and dreams of marrying an Italian. You are right though...low birth rate, aging population..not very good immigration tactics.

Also...There is a lot of US outsourcing in Canada. I worked for an American company in Canada. I can`t see Americans relocating companies to Argentina when they are right next door to Canada, where it isn`t corrupt and the economy isn`t in shambles. Just my own personal thoughts anyway.