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Argentina decides to control oil firm YPF


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#1
dennisr

dennisr
This is going to get ugly  http://www.reuters.c...E82U08520120331

And Spain shall retaliate with A Ban on Argentine Biodiesel Imports http://www.bloomberg...mundo-says.html

#2
MarcR

MarcR
I suppose you guys living in Argentina are somehow experts in Argentinian political/economic issues (and possibly about other south-american countries too), so can any of you foresee the argentinian government expropriating multinationals like Mcdonald's or the Coca-Cola branch or other medium-sized argentinian companies in the future like it is happening in Venezuela right now?

Or there is no chance such things would occur and people saying that to you are only overreacting?

Thanks,

#3
ElNicoOriginal

ElNicoOriginal
  • LocationCap Fed

MarcR said:

I suppose you guys living in Argentina are somehow experts in Argentinian political/economic issues (and possibly about other south-american countries too),

If anyone ever told you that they are experts on Argentine politics and economic issues, they lie. It changes every day here, no one knows what is going to happen. You just pick up on things WHEN they are about to happen.

As for them nationalizing other things. No one knows. YPF is next and when that happens, Argentina has basically screwed itself over.

What little confidence investors had in Argentina is going to go away right when Argentina either nationalizes the company or exerts more state control over it.

Cristina is shooting in the dark right now and she is hitting all the wrong targets.

#4
notebook.fix

notebook.fix
  • LocationBuenos Aires Capital
In very simple & general terms, the only way to begin to understand the government in Argentina is to view it as an Italian/Spanish mafia....then you have to ad the wild card - an emotionally unstable -schizophrenic nut case like Cristina as it's boss.  If you can imagine a mafia group with a nut job as it's head boss...this is where you start.  

YPF? McDonnalds? Coca Cola? - Yes they would if they feel a desperate need to recapture the populist vote in order to stay in power.

MarcR said:

I suppose you guys living in Argentina are somehow experts in Argentinian political/economic issues (and possibly about other south-american countries too), so can any of you foresee the argentinian government expropriating multinationals like Mcdonald's or the Coca-Cola branch or other medium-sized argentinian companies in the future like it is happening in Venezuela right now?

Or there is no chance such things would occur and people saying that to you are only overreacting?

Thanks,


#5
james p

james p
Same ol same ol! When something national isn't working sell it or give it away(with all of its debts) and when the new owners fix it and make it profitable REPOSSESS IT! Then when you run it to ruins do the same again! Sounds like a couple of little islands nearby!Don't underestimate Sra K. I personally would put her in the classe of geneous, but then so was Hitler. Neither of whom I would want as MY close friend and confidante. Keep your friends close, keep your enemies CLOSER!

#6
Santiago F

Santiago F

james p said:

Same ol same ol! When something national isn't working sell it or give it away(with all of its debts) and when the new owners fix it and make it profitable REPOSSESS IT! Then when you run it to ruins do the same again! Sounds like a couple of little islands nearby!Don't underestimate Sra K. I personally would put her in the classe of geneous, but then so was Hitler. Neither of whom I would want as MY close friend and confidante. Keep your friends close, keep your enemies CLOSER!

I understand, but... you have to take into account that the ones who "sold" (at a very low price, BTW) YPF in the 90s weren't the same as the ones who want to repossess it now.

#7
james p

james p
It was sold by Menim and his goons when it was loosing money! 15 years later it was making over a BILLION US DOLLARS in profit. Now new goons want to take it over.....a goon is a goon......a dictator is a dictator! In 5 years after these goons run it into the ground the next goons will sell it and the cycle continues, all in the name of WE NEED TO BUILD THE STRENGTH OF OUR NATION! ah but all without mentioning how much PERSONAL money the goons pocket.....ALL IN INTEREST OF THE BETTERMENT OF THE NATION??????? i think not!

#8
Santiago F

Santiago F

james p said:

It was sold by Menim and his goons when it was loosing money! 15 years later it was making over a BILLION US DOLLARS in profit. Now new goons want to take it over.....a goon is a goon......a dictator is a dictator! In 5 years after these goons run it into the ground the next goons will sell it and the cycle continues, all in the name of WE NEED TO BUILD THE STRENGTH OF OUR NATION! ah but all without mentioning how much PERSONAL money the goons pocket.....ALL IN INTEREST OF THE BETTERMENT OF THE NATION??????? i think not!

I agree in general. What I meant was that having sold it (at least at such a miserable price and with corruption involved) at Menem's time was a huge mistake. The reasons for selling YPF in the 90s were not related to the good of the country (all the contrary). At present, I guess the government does what it does because it needs more money, but... Repsol-YPF's heads aren't very well viewed either (no matter whether they make money, money isn't all that matters).

#9
trennod

trennod
  • LocationPalermo Chico
These kind of actions are going to have dire consequences for the future of this country. Its exactly the kind of stuff that sends country / sovereign risk through the roof.

Argentina needs foreign investment and access to capital markets to grow and reach its potential in the future, obviously the Ks do not care about this but when (if) this country finally gets a decent government that heads in that direction, these kind of decisions will come back to bite. 2001 may have been a while ago but this kind of stuff doesnt make it seem too far gone, really. Different government, same old stuff.

#10
dennisr

dennisr
Some of this stuff is so baffling, wonder if they have some sort of death wish or something? Argentina will import about $9 billion dollars worth of REFINED petroleum and LNG products this year. Damn, half the shortfall of refined products can be blamed on strikes at the refineries. Read somewhere they averaged 160 working days last year at the refineries. And they are suppose to be a 24/7*deal.
If this economy goes TU this go around, it will be disastrous. At least in 2001 when they defaulted some cash was freed up and they had seed money. This go around, nothing it would seem. Hope I am all wrong.




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