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Campaign Watch


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#1
Magico Gonzalez

Magico Gonzalez
The coming of spring marks the official start of campaigning for October's Senate & Depurty elections. I thought we could open a thread to discuss the campaign. Let's try and keep it local and stay away from the usual US or European debates.

New Voters:
1. 600k (about 50% of those eligible) new 16 and 17 yr olds registered to vote

New way to vote
1. Gone are the stamped seal on your DNI, and making a first appearance are electoral stubs with a serial number identifier.

Who is up for election?
1. Half of the lower house: Camara de Diputados for the 2013 to 2017 period
2. A third of the upper house: Senado de la Nacion for the 2013 to 2019 period

Where?
1. Lower house (Diputados/Deputies) will be elected from every district
2. Upper House (Senado/Senate) will be elected from : Chaco, Entre Rios, Neuquén, Rio Negro, Salta, Santiago del Estero, Tierra del Fuego and GCBA.

To date:
1. Corrientes has already voted for it's governor. Ricardo Colombi (UCR) beat the FpV candidate

Likely to happen?
1. Sadly, the FpV aren't exposed in too many races, they have only 37 lower house seats up for dispute and using the August PASO (candidate selection) elections as a guide it looks like an overall reduction in popular vote but peversely a marginal gain in seats in the upper and lower houses. Outside of the city it looks unlikely the FpV will lose any seats.

In other words, marginal change but potential further fall in the popular vote. All sides likely to point to their preferred statistic (% of popular vote vs actual seats taken) in the run up to 2015. Massa's Frente Renevador will continue to grow in terms of % of vote without real gains (i.e. Seats) in either house and Macri will need a strong showing in the city to reverse the gains made by the left leaning UNEN alliance.

Yesterday Massa's crowd were forcefully ejected from Ciudad Evita in the province of BA which if he plays it right will strengthen his hand regarding security. He can point to Scioli and say that they cant even protect politicians whilst campaigning in full view of the press.
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#2
Magico Gonzalez

Magico Gonzalez
contd...(I am used to talking to myself at this stage, and I am a bit of a political geek..soooooo)

Inflation:

The inflation debate no longer informs the electorate as far as I am concerned, the anecdotal evidence is so overwhelming and people feel the pinch so acutely that their voting patterns might well be shaped according to their own experience rather than an arbitrary figure. Real interest rates on bank loans also inform voting patterns, those interest rates aren't artificially pegged to the Indec (as no bank anywhere would make a loan!) so again that process has transgressed beyond whatever the INDEC figure is.

Right now it only serves as an easy target to attack the government with. It is clear policy will not change under this govt, money will be printed and will continue to fuel inflation.

1. What happened to Macri's proposed GCBA city index? Seems to be all quiet on that front. i was expecting it to be a key electoral strategy for him? Too busy repaving the microcentro ?

2. Is Massa telling us anything different from FpV ? Indications are that he won't shut down the printing press either.

Without a paradigm shift in thinking the only logical end to the infationary cycle is crisis, it's just a matter of when and how abrupt it will be?

Anyone for talk of a soft landing?
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#3
PhilipDT

PhilipDT
  • LocationCapital Federal
Massa is just Scioli with more balls and less experience. He did what Scioli probably wanted to do but couldn't get up the nerve, Scioli has been angling for President in 2015 since he took office but he knows that on the back of La Plata and the awful security problems in GBA his only chance is to be Cristinas designated succesor which is why he takes all the abuse. I suspect +a isn't telling us anything different policy wise because he really has no idea about running the country other than installing lots of security cameras.

On the other hand back home, Bergmen seems like a bit of a moron but I personally think Macri has enough support to carry him. Michitti is in and unfortunately probably Solanas too. Filmus is going the same place he always goes, nowhere.

#4
Gringoboy

Gringoboy
  • LocationLa Lucila, Buenos Aires
We'll see the usual dirty tricks and smear campaigns, the majority emanating from the K faction.
I don't think it's going to be a pleasant night for the K's whichever way you look at it, but you can be sure that they will be in denial when the cancer is confirmed.
It's post election that worries me the most.
That's when I expect them to roll up their sleeves and continue the rape and pillage of the country.
I'm sorry folks, but I'm not optimistic for the future stability of this country in the short to medium term.
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#5
PhilipDT

PhilipDT
  • LocationCapital Federal
Also whats up with de Navarez? He must really hate massa these days.

#6
Magico Gonzalez

Magico Gonzalez
Bergman is the one that UNEN will gun for, god help us all if UNEN ever got control of the city, a complete ragtag bunch of misfits without a coherent policy between the lot of them.

Bold move to run a Rabi with perceived right wing politics in the city. I would have thought a softer centrist candidate might help soften Macri's profile nationally.
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#7
Magico Gonzalez

Magico Gonzalez

Gringoboy, on 23 September 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:

We'll see the usual dirty tricks and smear campaigns, the majority emanating from the K faction.
I don't think it's going to be a pleasant night for the K's whichever way you look at it, but you can be sure that they will be in denial when the cancer is confirmed.
It's post election that worries me the most.
That's when I expect them to roll up their sleeves and continue the rape and pillage of the country.
I'm sorry folks, but I'm not optimistic for the future stability of this country in the short to medium term.

I think they will actually come out statistically much worse off but in real terms they haven't got much of an exposure. This is what they will cling to, either way I share your opinion. They will be emboldened or lashing out, but either way she'll pursue her paranoid policies to the end.
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#8
Gringoboy

Gringoboy
  • LocationLa Lucila, Buenos Aires
Your last sentence is the one to watch.
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#9
PhilipDT

PhilipDT
  • LocationCapital Federal

Dublin2BuenosAires, on 23 September 2013 - 02:16 PM, said:

Bergman is the one that UNEN will gun for, god help us all if UNEN ever got control of the city, a complete ragtag bunch of misfits without a coherent policy between the lot of them.

Bold move to run a Rabi with perceived right wing politics in the city. I would have thought a softer centrist candidate might help soften Macri's profile nationally.

I don't think Macri should have run a softer candidate, I think he's done pretty well by putting himself pretty firmly in his own position and running CABA like his own little country at war with the national government. I just think bergman dosn't connect at all with the electorate. If he gets the votes it will because PRO did all the work, I don't know anybody who actually gets excited for Bergman as a candidate.

#10
Magico Gonzalez

Magico Gonzalez

PhilipDT, on 23 September 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

I don't think Macri should have run a softer candidate, I think he's done pretty well by putting himself pretty firmly in his own position and running CABA like his own little country at war with the national government. I just think bergman dosn't connect at all with the electorate. If he gets the votes it will because PRO did all the work, I don't know anybody who actually gets excited for Bergman as a candidate.

I think he needs to break out of the city and nationalise his profile, I don't think Bergman helps that cause. I never like strongly religious candidates of any persuasion and I think it can be a turnoff. I'd still rather Bergman than anyone he is running against, the amount of people I know who voted for UNEN or strongly considered voting for UNEN without really knowing what they stand for is worrying, same applies for Massa. Seems those security cameras are a big draw. I also find a lot of resistance to Macri without people being able to tell me why.

For the record, I'd vote Pro or no one. Impressed with metrobus and the work done in the microcentro and would hold out some hope that he would re-engage with the international community in a constructive way.
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