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Economist Simon Kuznets said: "There are four kinds of countries: developed countries, underdeveloped countries, Japan, and Argentina."

The IMF is p a humanitarian organization. It is the world's lender-of-last-resort. Play I Am ass is focused on return of principal, but not necessarily an adequate return on investment. Aiims will lend Argentina money when no one else will, at an interest rate lower than any rational investor...

Yes - why would anything change due to a VP pick? Let's look at what policies a Biden/Harris administration would pursue: increase corporate tax rates, increase personal income tax rates on the upper middle class and upper class, universal healthcare, student loan forgiveness, increased...

Regarding Blackrock, if they purchased their bonds at issuance, roughly 100 cents, then the firm stands to lose a fortune. These negotiations reduced those losses. During the lowest of times, many tranches of Argentine bonds crashed to as low as 35 cents. Any investor purchasing the bonds in...

Your question on the IMF is a good one. Many people on this page have hinted around this question, but none have asked it. The IMF does not accept "haircuts" on its debts ("haircuts" translates into reductions in Net Present Value of obligations). The IMF is a political organization that is...

Please consider the differences between the concepts of "maximize return" and "safety [of principal]." These are two very different concepts in finance and they often are/can be mutually exclusive.

Blackrock has a legally binding, fiduciary duty to its investors to maximize their return. It also has an ethical obligation. Many of those investors - indirectly - are firefighters, teachers, truck drivers, state and municipal employees of one sort of another, etc... I don't believe anything...

Unless there is a behind the scenes understanding between AR and the commercial airs, pretty soon they are going to have to start canceling first half September flights. The commercial airs usually need about 6 weeks lead time to schedule international routes. This is made easier because right...

I find it strange that a repatriation flight would be sold under a "hot sale" discount promotion. International diplomacy meets "On Sale."

https://www-ambito-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.ambito.com/negocios/aerolineas-argentinas/vuelve-volar-nueva-york-ofrece-descuentos-y-12-cuotas-el-hot-sale-n5120516?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15960106034007&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&amps...

Today, Aerolineas announced a fare sale, with two flights between EZE and NYC on August 20 and 27. From this announcement, it appears we can infer that all commercial September flights are a go. I find this development strange given that it was recently announced that domestic flights, which...

The AF government's stated objective was to bend down the curve. The opposite is currently taking place, yet the quarantine is being relaxed. AF has accepted that neither extreme works with Chinavirus. It doesn't work to shut everything down, because the economy hits the floor. It doesn't work...

I hate to interrupt the Venezuela dialogue, but: Alberto just announced phased reopening of several sectors of the economy - based on provincias. But there is no mention of air travel, especially international. Anyone (antipodean) heard anything?

Curtailment of the EZE - JFK direct flight tells us what American thinks in the near to intermediate term. That is a city pair, only 10 to 11 hours apart, with over 20 million people combined. Antipodean can probably bring greater insight, but my guess is American forecasts the outbound...

Predictions of this nature are simplistic to the point of being worthless. As I wrote before on this site, a currency exchange rate is made up of two currencies. Not one. The exchange rate is the result of supply and demand for the respective currencies that are being compared. Any prediction...

It is likely no accident that the debt renegoiation has come unbuckled just after the Vicentin fiasco. How can you sign a contract with someone that just ignored rule of law? How can you grant three years of non-payment to a debtor that follows an almost certain path to ruin?

It says a lot about how Latam views the Argentine market going forward. Cabotaje was set to resume within a month or two - to the best of my knowledge. The casa matriz is right next door in Chile. And Latam stood to get traffic flow from Delta. Even with all those potential revenue drivers...

It doesn't sound pretty. And it isn't. But at this point, the relationship is a negotiation. As we are all learning by watching Argentina and creditors, negotiations are swayed by leverage. Given the economic imbalance, the poster on this thread has leverage. If that leverage is used rationally...

Yeah, but there are a ton of seats already sold on flights pre-Sept 1. I am the proud owner of a few of them. If Argentina opens to international flights earlier, then the airlines, both Aerolineas and foreign competitors, can start earning that revenue. Rather than having to give it back when...