Dublin2BuenosAires
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The coming of spring marks the official start of campaigning for October's Senate & Depurty elections. I thought we could open a thread to discuss the campaign. Let's try and keep it local and stay away from the usual US or European debates.
New Voters:
1. 600k (about 50% of those eligible) new 16 and 17 yr olds registered to vote
New way to vote
1. Gone are the stamped seal on your DNI, and making a first appearance are electoral stubs with a serial number identifier.
Who is up for election?
1. Half of the lower house: Camara de Diputados for the 2013 to 2017 period
2. A third of the upper house: Senado de la Nacion for the 2013 to 2019 period
Where?
1. Lower house (Diputados/Deputies) will be elected from every district
2. Upper House (Senado/Senate) will be elected from : Chaco, Entre Rios, Neuquén, Rio Negro, Salta, Santiago del Estero, Tierra del Fuego and GCBA.
To date:
1. Corrientes has already voted for it's governor. Ricardo Colombi (UCR) beat the FpV candidate
Likely to happen?
1. Sadly, the FpV aren't exposed in too many races, they have only 37 lower house seats up for dispute and using the August PASO (candidate selection) elections as a guide it looks like an overall reduction in popular vote but peversely a marginal gain in seats in the upper and lower houses. Outside of the city it looks unlikely the FpV will lose any seats.
In other words, marginal change but potential further fall in the popular vote. All sides likely to point to their preferred statistic (% of popular vote vs actual seats taken) in the run up to 2015. Massa's Frente Renevador will continue to grow in terms of % of vote without real gains (i.e. Seats) in either house and Macri will need a strong showing in the city to reverse the gains made by the left leaning UNEN alliance.
Yesterday Massa's crowd were forcefully ejected from Ciudad Evita in the province of BA which if he plays it right will strengthen his hand regarding security. He can point to Scioli and say that they cant even protect politicians whilst campaigning in full view of the press.
New Voters:
1. 600k (about 50% of those eligible) new 16 and 17 yr olds registered to vote
New way to vote
1. Gone are the stamped seal on your DNI, and making a first appearance are electoral stubs with a serial number identifier.
Who is up for election?
1. Half of the lower house: Camara de Diputados for the 2013 to 2017 period
2. A third of the upper house: Senado de la Nacion for the 2013 to 2019 period
Where?
1. Lower house (Diputados/Deputies) will be elected from every district
2. Upper House (Senado/Senate) will be elected from : Chaco, Entre Rios, Neuquén, Rio Negro, Salta, Santiago del Estero, Tierra del Fuego and GCBA.
To date:
1. Corrientes has already voted for it's governor. Ricardo Colombi (UCR) beat the FpV candidate
Likely to happen?
1. Sadly, the FpV aren't exposed in too many races, they have only 37 lower house seats up for dispute and using the August PASO (candidate selection) elections as a guide it looks like an overall reduction in popular vote but peversely a marginal gain in seats in the upper and lower houses. Outside of the city it looks unlikely the FpV will lose any seats.
In other words, marginal change but potential further fall in the popular vote. All sides likely to point to their preferred statistic (% of popular vote vs actual seats taken) in the run up to 2015. Massa's Frente Renevador will continue to grow in terms of % of vote without real gains (i.e. Seats) in either house and Macri will need a strong showing in the city to reverse the gains made by the left leaning UNEN alliance.
Yesterday Massa's crowd were forcefully ejected from Ciudad Evita in the province of BA which if he plays it right will strengthen his hand regarding security. He can point to Scioli and say that they cant even protect politicians whilst campaigning in full view of the press.