Cracks Surface in Argentina’s Ruling Coalition as Crisis Deepens

Alpinista

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For me a realistic scenario is that Alberto will have to step down before the end of next year. And the story line will be that he was not a real peronist, and then one of the pure "K's" will take over to save the republic.
 

antipodean

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For me a realistic scenario is that Alberto will have to step down before the end of next year. And the story line will be that he was not a real peronist, and then one of the pure "K's" will take over to save the republic.
I notice Máximo K is putting himself in the media and political spotlight more than previously. Plans underway for the dynasty to continue sooner than later?

A pitty if so, as only one of the more moderates like Masa could actually make progress and build bridges with all sectors to be able to try and move the country out of this polarized crisis.
 

wrangler

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In my opinion, he caught a falling knife. Things were already a disaster and getting worse during Macri's tenure, then the "pandemic" arrives. What do you expect? My family in the U.S. is complaining as well, and want to leave from there.
 

Alpinista

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In my opinion, he caught a falling knife. Things were already a disaster and getting worse during Macri's tenure, then the "pandemic" arrives. What do you expect? My family in the U.S. is complaining as well, and want to leave from there.
No one is denying that. 2018 the crisis already started, and it got a lot worse after the PASO in August 2019. Then Covid hit Argentina, which was going to have a negative effect on the economy no matter what.
However, you couldn't have possibly handled the crisis any worse then Alberto did. The world's longest, most dysfunctional lockdown, resulting not only in an economic disaster but also in terms of Covid cases / Covid deaths. Even complete ignorance towards the crisis (AMLO or Bolsonaro style, basically doing nothing) would have been much better retrospectively. Because let's not forget: the impact on the economy in Argentina will be much harder than in most other countries on the continent, resulting in an extreme poverty never seen in Argentina before (which will lead to thousands of unaccounted deaths due to malnutrition, depression, bad medical situation, violence etc)
 

wrangler

Registered
No one is denying that. 2018 the crisis already started, and it got a lot worse after the PASO in August 2019. Then Covid hit Argentina, which was going to have a negative effect on the economy no matter what.
However, you couldn't have possibly handled the crisis any worse then Alberto did. The world's longest, most dysfunctional lockdown, resulting not only in an economic disaster but also in terms of Covid cases / Covid deaths. Even complete ignorance towards the crisis (AMLO or Bolsonaro style, basically doing nothing) would have been much better retrospectively. Because let's not forget: the impact on the economy in Argentina will be much harder than in most other countries on the continent, resulting in an extreme poverty never seen in Argentina before (which will lead to thousands of unaccounted deaths due to malnutrition, depression, bad medical situation, violence etc)
I don't think it will be that bad. We'll be just fine. Argentina always recovers.
 

antipodean

Registered
No one is denying that. 2018 the crisis already started, and it got a lot worse after the PASO in August 2019. Then Covid hit Argentina, which was going to have a negative effect on the economy no matter what.
However, you couldn't have possibly handled the crisis any worse then Alberto did. The world's longest, most dysfunctional lockdown, resulting not only in an economic disaster but also in terms of Covid cases / Covid deaths. Even complete ignorance towards the crisis (AMLO or Bolsonaro style, basically doing nothing) would have been much better retrospectively. Because let's not forget: the impact on the economy in Argentina will be much harder than in most other countries on the continent, resulting in an extreme poverty never seen in Argentina before (which will lead to thousands of unaccounted deaths due to malnutrition, depression, bad medical situation, violence etc)
Exactly. When we are able to compare the cost of COVID recovery for Argentina with Mexico (or Chile) we will see that Argentina plunged itself from the hole into the abyss. The difference we will see is that other countries have focused on having a structure to facilitate recovery tomorrow while Argentina has focused on a structure to survive only today by "freezing" the economy (and society) but changing nothing... sooner or later someone needs to get paid, and nothing brings back the dead. Yet we have a government with zero plan who takes zero meaningful actions, other than reforming the judicial system, while they hide behind 2018 and they hide behind COVID. The only way for Argentina to recovery now is to essentially collapse completely and "start again" a la 2001/2 - however every "new start" is never going to be as good as the one before... as we have seen since the 1950s.
 

artisans

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I don't think it will be that bad. We'll be just fine. Argentina always recovers.
Very good Wrangler, although 'pearls before swine' here. There's a deep need that's apparent to paint it black, to stigmatize especially Alberto Fernandez, to embellish and personalize the doom and gloom. They work off a palette of limited, obscure colors and niggardly praise.
 

Alpinista

Registered
Very good Wrangler, although 'pearls before swine' here. There's a deep need that's apparent to paint it black, to stigmatize especially Alberto Fernandez, to embellish and personalize the doom and gloom. They work off a palette of limited, obscure colors and niggardly praise.
I belong to the "doom and gloom" section here. The reason why i believe that this is not one of the usual "two steps back, one step forward" crisis are the followings:
  • Public deficit is higher than 10%, basically no possibility to tap the international USD bond market after another default. The government does not even pretend to lower the deficit
  • Accordingly, the money printing goes around the clock with the hyperinflation around the corner
  • The official currency regime is on the brink of collapse. Exports are down (they are not selling at the official rate), importers have a huge problem to access the USD. And we are not only talking about imports of consumer end products, but also products which are needed here for local production
  • Exit of international companies, and in my view that is only the beginning
  • There are various measures that government took to have short term relief (e.g. price controls, companies cannot fire employees), measures which have negative consequences in the mid and long run (it's like keeping the ball under water for a short time)
  • The cushion in terms of poverty rates, unemployment, size of state sector was much better when we entered into the last big crisis in 2001/2
  • I don't see a commodity boom on the horizon which will help Argentina recover as in 2003 and the following years
  • But the worst thing is: No one is going to invest in the foreseeable future here in Argentina. It is nearly impossible to do business here under the current conditions. Particularly I mean sky high taxes, bureaucracy, unions / labour issues, price controls. I don't even need to go into Vicentin, wealth tax etc. in detail, needless to say that this doesn't exactly help to give confidence to potential investors.
In my opinion there is a wide spread view here that "Argentina will recover as always", "we will be fine" etc. I respect your optimism, but on what is it based?
 
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