Economics, inflation, long-term COL

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JSB

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Greetings!

I'm a would-be (probably will-be) expat fascinated with BA and in frequent dialog with others either already relocated to South America, buying property there or seriously considering it.

Our main guy (let's call him JC) lives in Santiago and says Chile is the only place to be. Others have personally scouted Belize, Panama and Uruguay. I enjoy comparing notes with them all, variously playing devil's or angel's advocate or just sharing links and other findings -- including BAExpats', of course. Thus far, AR[gentina] isn't in the running for any of those folks.

One of our chief concerns is the projected economic situation wherever we are (!) or end up. All of you seem to be quite comfortable with AR's economics, even if you agree it's hardly ideal. Tell us, please, your view of its future, especially re inflation. Wikipedia alleges that the peso's current official rate of inflation is 7.8% with an "estimated" real figure of 22%.

Inflation has wrought havoc on AR in recent times. You folks have brought yankee dollars with you which have real clout there at present, and more power to you. But where do you see inflation in BA going long-term, and how do you anticipate dealing with it?

How do you plan to get by if for instance the rate goes to 50-60-70%, or maybe 500,000%, with corresponding hikes in the cost of living? The dollar could easily go there but let's leave the dollar out of the discussion for the moment.

If you have reason to believe such things will never happen in AR -- or that any kind of hedges exist against them -- let's hear it. JC says Chile has an automatic system of adjusting bank accounts and wages to any level of inflation, but it's the only country that seems to have done so.

Throw in any and all views and angles, please. Who knows, you may gain some converts!

Thanks!
 

Lucas

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JSB said:
Greetings!

I'm a would-be (probably will-be) expat fascinated with BA and in frequent dialog with others either already relocated to South America, buying property there or seriously considering it.

Our main guy (let's call him JC) lives in Santiago and says Chile is the only place to be. Others have personally scouted Belize, Panama and Uruguay. I enjoy comparing notes with them all, variously playing devil's or angel's advocate or just sharing links and other findings -- including BAExpats', of course. Thus far, AR[gentina] isn't in the running for any of those folks.

One of our chief concerns is the projected economic situation wherever we are (!) or end up. All of you seem to be quite comfortable with AR's economics, even if you agree it's hardly ideal. Tell us, please, your view of its future, especially re inflation. Wikipedia alleges that the peso's current official rate of inflation is 7.8% with an "estimated" real figure of 22%.

Inflation has unfortunately been a curse on AR in recent times. You folks have brought yankee dollars with you which have real clout there at present, and more power to you. But where do you see inflation in BA going long-term, and how do you anticipate dealing with it?

How do you plan to get by if for instance the rate goes to 50-60-70%, or maybe 500,000%, with corresponding hikes in the cost of living? The dollar could easily go there but let's leave the dollar out of the discussion for the moment.

If you have reason to believe such things will never happen in AR -- or that any kind of hedges exist against them --let's hear it . JC says Chile has an automatic system of adjusting bank accounts and wages to any level of inflation, but it's the only country that seems to have done so.

Throw in any and all views and angles, please.

Thanks!
I really think you will be better off in Chile according to JC or may be Bolivia, so seriously forget any plan you have about settling in AR and set foot over there you will enjoy standards of living similar or maybe better than USA....who knows? Maybe your main guy JC knows better, why bother to move down here.
 

soulskier

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FYI, the pesos just hit 3.5 to 1 today. That's a full 15% down from several months ago. That definetly should be factored into your inflation index.

You should expect a post from Stanley any time know.
 

JSB

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Thanks.

I'm honestly interested -- hope I didn't totally obscure that fact! Among other advantages AR has over CL is that AR (certainly the BA area) isn't right smack on the "ring of fire."

The Featured Post in today's BAExpats mass mailing fired my imagination: "The world is going to experience what the Argentines have lived with forever..... They just do it with finesse here.... and a smile of their face....."
 

RWS

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JSB, I've friends and family in both Chile and Argentina, and I, an American, have spent time in each country. The two countries are not similar. Argentina may now come in a distant second to Chile financially, but there are aspects of life in Argentina which are very, very appealling -- at least to me.

Every place is different, and each of us is different. You'll decide best which country you prefer if you come down and spend a month or two in each land. And you're almost certain to enjoy your time doing so, no matter what you decide in the end.
 

perry

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Yes Chile is stable and runs well but comparing it to Argentina you will be bound to be disapointed.

Chile is like your old spinster aunt while Argentina is..........................
 

JSB

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Bravo -- all intriguing. More, more, more! CL is not my main heart throb, but if any of you have specific comparisons to make either way, that should really liven things up. The gang up here is actually leaning toward Uruguay at the moment -- whose advantages famously include proximity to AR/BA. They're having a lunch meeting Saturday to hear reports on two people's trip.

This must cover the info soulskier refers to:

http://www.freshplaza.com/news_detail.asp?id=37994

Says stocks rose -- that's good.
 

Lucas

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Read what this fellow thinks of this country.

Argentina will be the Last Frontier

"The world is in terrible upheaval at the moment and my feeling says that it is the end of the financial world as we know it. There will be great devastation in the coming months and I feel a severe war is just around the corner.

Its been such a long time since I have last posted but the urgency of this situation made me post tonight are at a crossroads and we all will be affected.

People ask me why did I move to Argentina and my answer is this I just had a tremendous urge to come here from a young boy and I remember saying to my mother that Argentina will be the last frontier where a new world will form from the dust of the old. Seeing what is happening now around the world I feel much safer here in this isolated but stunningly beautiful land that can sustain all ."


Greek Australian in Buenos Aires

Seems he is not so much worried about Economics, inflation, long-term COL etc, etc...money helps but isn't all in life.. if that worries you so much your best option will be Chile... Good luck.
 

Stanexpat

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If you are just going to be here for a limited period of time renting then it really doesn't make much difference which country you pick.

If you are talking about establishing a business or buying real estate then I would suggest Uruguay or Chile. Both are more stable politically and financially than Argentina. Until the political problems are resolved in Argentina(unresolved now for at least 50 years) any kind of investment there should be considered high risk and generally avoided.

Inflation will continue in Argentina but should moderate late in the year.

Another country you might want to consider depending on what you are trying to accomplish is Peru where the economy is doing well. Growth in the economy there is forecast to grow 8.5% in 2009 versus -2.0% in
Argentina.
 
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