Global recession: An Argentine expat view

[Barney]

It's hard to predict the future now but for me there will be a huge debt crisis in both the EU as USA for the forseeable future(1 to 3 years) with low growth or even recession, unpredictable stock market, low interest rate, high inflation and high unemployment. Latin America seems to be doing fine so far and most of the other first world countries as well

How do you think this will affect the expats in BA/Argentina? Will the long term expats stay because they can atleast have some kind of job/income in a (not yet) expensive big city? 1500 to 2000 dollar still gives you a good lifestyle or will they jump on the first plane to get a job in the first world. Or aren't there any jobs for people who have been away 2 to 5 years?

Will the richer expats start to invest in properties eventhough there is high inflation and high risk? An average of 5 percent of ROI is not bad in this world or will they start buy homes to protect them from the economic crisis?

Will people with cash move to BA/Argentina and buy lands/properties because it gives them the option to lay back and make a relative safe investment?

Will Argentines and other south Americans move back even more? Will south Europeans move to the south for a few years?

How do you think everthing will play out in the next 1 to 3 years?

 

[windy]

I think the Euro zone collaspe is now a matter of when not if. The mess in the states and the downgrading. The crises with Italy and Spain and the fact that no one is still prepared to lend them money. They are both to big to Bail.
So i think the Euro Zone is about to implode, and gods knows what will follow.

 

[Barney]

And how do you see the impact on Argentina and the expats?

 

[Philsword]

Too make a long story short the places that have done well the last few years are heading for big problems over the next couple of years, those in trouble today will probably look a lot better in a year or two.

 

[Barney]

Maybe the global econonomy can be discussed in a different thread but I am more interested in the impact on Argentina and the expats.

 

[BROOKLYN]

History will repeat its self...Argentina was one of the richest countries back in the day

 

[chris]

I agree about recession and unemployment but what makes you think there will be high inflation in the US?

 

[Barney]

I agree about recession and unemployment but what makes you think there will be high inflation in the US?

Inflation has been high so far, mainly due to high oil and food prices

Eurozone inflation has been 2,5% and thats about has high as the interest. Salaries are also lower

 

[ghost]

re: Global recession
When it's "global", there is no place to hide. As for the credit down grade, hog wash, these are the same fools that just wiped out the global economy by rating mortgage derivatives as AAA. The whole sad dance is designed to produce shock and gain greater control.
As for the USA the economic engines they are running pretty well but the collective morons in the cockpit are flying the plane into a mountain.

 

[chris]

I can't see that overall inflation is very high in the US. What is the inflation rate?