How long will current 'lockdown' last?

[sergio]

With record numbers of infected, it seems likely that current restrictions will be extended. Any thoughts?

 

[antipodean]

The nation, province and CABA have confirmed the lockdown will end on Sunday as planned, meaning from Monday we go back to the way things were immediately before with a night curfew between 20:00-06:00.

Next weekend will also be a lockdown the same as this weekend.

Fin del confinamiento: qué se podrá hacer y qué no en la ciudad y en la provincia de Buenos Aires a partir del lunes

Luego de nueve días de aislamiento estricto, volverán a implementarse restricciones específicas para cada una de las zonas epidemiológicas

www.infobae.com

The government are saying it’s generally too early to see the “fruits” of this current lockdown just yet when looking at the high number of daily cases around the country.

The government have also indicated that for the rest of the winter we may be looking at on again/ off again lockdowns or restrictions according to the sanitary situation.
The government have also indicated that for the rest of the winter we may be looking at on again/ off again lockdowns or restrictions according to the sanitary situation.

Restrictions aside, given the current case levels and ICU occupation all over the country, I don’t think this news should be taken by anyone as an invitation to party or act recklessly!

 

[¡Sencillamente yo!]

With record numbers of infected, it seems likely that current restrictions will be extended. Any thoughts?

I do think your question is a good one, which no one really has an accurate answer for. And my question is even more impossible to answer:

I think the bigger question to ask is: When will the world get "closely" back to normal?

Hint: The answers depend upon a huge reduction in deaths and positives.

I'll take a guess at answering my question:

No earlier than 12 months and more like 18 to 24 months. We (the population of the world) are in for some very trying times I fear.

 

[Alby]

I think the bigger question to ask is: When will the world get "closely" back to normal?

I see it this way. To the extent there ever was a "normal" and to the extent that it can be somewhat "closely" recaptured, some countries (US, the UK and, perhaps a little later, much of Europe) will get there in a matter of months. A second group of countries (including Argentina) are in or close to their worst moments now but that will probably start to improve back toward their previous "normal" over the next twelve to eighteen months as vaccine coverage slowly improves. There may be a third group of countries where the virus is present but has not yet exploded and where it may yet do so, as it did in India. Such countries, if they exist, are well off touching rock bottom and the journey back will therefore be much longer than twelve to eighteen months. Finally, there is a small group of countries where the March 2019 normal has continued almost uninterrupted from the very start, where the pandemic has yet to even begin and is still a poorly understood and abstract concept. As those countries will be the last ones the pandemic reaches, they will be the last recover their normalcy. I am from one of those countries. Once lost (I think in the next six to twelve months) I don't expect the temporary normalcy it is currently experiencing to return until the middle of the decade.

 

[¡Sencillamente yo!]

I see it this way. To the extent there ever was a "normal" and to the extent that it can be somewhat "closely" recaptured, some countries (US, the UK and, perhaps a little later, much of Europe) will get there in a matter of months. A second group of countries (including Argentina) are in or close to their worst moments now but that will probably start to improve back toward their previous "normal" over the next twelve to eighteen months as vaccine coverage slowly improves. There may be a third group of countries where the virus is present but has not yet exploded and where it may yet do so, as it did in India. Such countries, if they exist, are well off touching rock bottom and the journey back will therefore be much longer than twelve to eighteen months. Finally, there is a small group of countries where the March 2019 normal has continued almost uninterrupted from the very start, where the pandemic has yet to even begin and is still a poorly understood and abstract concept. As those countries will be the last ones the pandemic reaches, they will be the last recover their normalcy. I am from one of those countries. Once lost (I think in the next six to twelve months) I don't expect the temporary normalcy it is currently experiencing to return until the middle of the decade.

Yes, This is going to be a FIVE YEAR process from beginning to under control (I did not say END!) before people can get back to pre virus ways of life.

 

[Alby]

There is also an argument to be made that economic and geopolitical convulsions in coming years will lead us to see, perhaps in five or ten years time as we look back, that as massive a change as it seemed at the time, the Covid 2019 pandemic was just a prologue or perhaps a trigger for even greater changes than we can currently even imagine and that shifted our world and lives even further away from that pre-March 2020 normal many people still long for. History shows that bad things often give way to even worse things. Most of us in the developed world had a golden run for several decades. We should be grateful for it. Perhaps we didn't appreciate how good we had it. Perhaps this is just a temporary hiccup, but we can't assume that.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Wow I thought I was a pessimist.
What would you do during a ‘serious’ pandemic such as the Spanish flu?
Which incidentally gave way to the ‘roaring 20s’

or the black Death with gave us the Renaissance.

 

[Alby]

What would you do during a ‘serious’ pandemic such as the Spanish flu?

Personally, I am enjoying life in this pandemic. It has opened up all sorts of opportunities that weren't apparent before. In that sense, for me, personally, this pandemic is an extension of the golden era. I can't assume that my golden era continues indefinitely, although I hope it will. Those whose pandemic experience has been less favorable can either hope things get better, or assume they will get better, or guard against them getting worse before they get better, or some combination of the three.

 

[¡Sencillamente yo!]

a

Personally, I am enjoying life in this pandemic. It has opened up all sorts of opportunities that weren't apparent before. In that sense, for me, personally, this pandemic is an extension of the golden era. I can't assume that my golden era continues indefinitely, although I hope it will. Those whose pandemic experience has been less favorable can either hope things get better, or assume they will get better, or guard against them getting worse before they get better, or some combination of the three.

For me, I rolled with it as well.

New doors opened as old ones closed. I try real hard to see the good and the opportunity in people / things and events.

I believe the key to navigating a life is to be open minded and flexible. Then make the most of the cards you are dealt. Play them the best you can.

 

[Alby]

That is more or less part of my point. After fourteen months are we really still asking ourselves: "When will we get back to normal (or something approximating what we took for normal)?" It's probably not a healthy question because it implies an anxiousness to get back to something that may never come back and suggests we are yet to come to terms with what has occurred. We all approach the problem in a different way, but, for what it's worth, my way is not to wish away the next two, three, or however many years I might estimate I have to endure to get back to what I had pre-March 2020. I prefer to forget what pre-2020 was like, not long for a near-return to it, and instead make the best of today.