If anyone wants to understand why Argentina is in hot water again $$$..

#1
For those who can understand castellano, in my opinion this economist in the video has consistently explained it with great clarity.
Libertarian or whatever, Javier Milei is hot property on all center right media channels at the moment.
His views are waking up a lot of locals to the excesses of overspending by big government socialism.
Even if you don't agree with his views, he certainly presents an interesting argument.

 
#5
After this next great crisis the vast majority of Argentines will stampede back to populism, proving once more that , this country is in the shape it's in due to it's people and the poor decisions making when it comes to looking after a nation.
Let's hope i'm wrong this time.......
 

ben

Active Member
#7
So basically:
  1. As of December 2015, coincidentally precisely when CFK stepped down, the fundamentals were all but rigged to explode spectacularly.
    • They weren't even subtle about it. Until the day CFK was constitutionally obliged to depart the Casa Rosada, she was wreaking havoc in ways both small (appointing new ambassadors with 10 days to go? Really?) and large (booby-trapping the dollar with Vanoli by way of the futures contracts; unilaterally handing over coparticipacion money to the provinces, reversing a position the administration had held for years, and with weeks left to her term; etc).
  2. This would leave the government with no choice but to drastically adjust rates, incurring the people's wrath and ensuring a speedy return of the same assholes who had booby-trapped everything in the first place.
    • They weren't subtle about this, either; this was a central point of the campaigning precisely because they knew there is no other way.
  3. Macri, knowing this, and not willing to face the political repercussions thereof, aimed for a "gradual" increase, hoping to find the sweet spot between mass outrage and fiscal ruin.
  4. This would be referred to as "genius" if he was able to wing it, and "wimping out" if he couldn't.
  5. He couldn't. And managed to step in it quite a few times along the way. Several of these were rather foreseeable.
  6. As @camberiu and a few other wise observers pointed out, there was a whole bunch of fairly low-hanging fruit that Macri could have gone after, in the name of improving general stability, but didn't.
  7. And so here we are.
So now we have runaway inflation, and the INDEC still publishes BS numbers, and at no point did we get the clarity of a person saying "Guys, I will not lie to you. The next while will hurt, there is no way around that. I am not going to make it all better, because that is beyond my power. This is the hand we've been dealt. I am willing to carry the political burden of the recession we're about to step into, because by doing what we have to do, we will keep it as short as possible. By 20XX we hope to have turned the ship around".

Rather, you have a fairly mediocre crew whose whole advantage is that they are not a much worse crew, and a bunch of others - divided between those who don't know better, and those who do know better - who clamor for the old guard back. Awesome.
 
#8
You forgot that inflation is double than with CFK (the Central Bank use a 40% interest) and the debt is skyrocketing because of Macri’s missmanagement. FCFD1D1D-C64B-4327-84B8-E6808522E1DD.png
 

ben

Active Member
#9
One person whose opinion regarding the henhouse's security nobody wants to hear, is the fox.
It's that simple.
The fundamentals that Macri etc were trying to address with their (clearly failed) interest gamble, was an attempt to square a circle with the insane budgetary policy they inherited. The runaway spending; the total lack of confidence in the business world; the rampant corruption; the Pravda approach to news; the bullying of McDonalds into fixing the price of a Big Mac so as not to appear ridiculous on the Big Mac index; Guillermo Moreno, nuff said; etc.
You'd have a bit more credibility if you'd addressed any of that, during the K years, with a tenth of the gusto - or the frequency - with which you now attack Macrinomics.
You were utterly silent, if not supportive. (If not, kindly show where one could discern that, beyond vague "I'm not a K").
So when others have a hard time cleaning up your shit, just have the decency not to complain about the smell. That's for others.