The seller is free to choose their own price of what they think their product is worth to them and what they think their clients will pay, the buyer is free to choose what offered price they buy it for - for example:
- if a cafe owner wants dollars in his pocket he may choose to sell his coffee at US$3 a cup and ARS 6000 a cup respectively (with a pricing policy that has nothing to do with an FX rate)
- if a cafe owner wants pesos in his pocket he may choose to sell his coffee at ARS3000 a cup and US$6 a cup respectively (with a pricing policy that has nothing to do with an FX rate)
- if a cafe owner values his product in dollars and doesn't care either way, he may choose to sell his coffee at US$3 a cup and ARS 3125 a cup (with an internal pricing policy at official, or MEP, or CCL or Blue)
- if a cafe owner values his product in pesos and doesn't care either way, he may choose to sell his coffee at ARS 3125 a cup at US$3 (with an internal pricing policy at official, or MEP, or CCL, or Blue)
- mix any or all of the above
The law does not control or regulate price differences or conversions between currencies - it only states that whatever amounts are written on the price tag, are to be the final amounts the consumer will pay at the till. So don't expect to see the same policy or clean conversion in every shop or for every product! (Although eventually the shops
will need to compete with one another...)
It is important to note that when the government announced this, they were clear that their expectations in the short to mid-term is that "luxury" products (e.g. those most commonly purchased by people with dollars) will be the most likely to first to see bi-monetary pricing. Want to buy an Audi or a bottle of Krug? Expect a better price in USD than ARS as no Argentine in their right mind wants to be sitting on so many pesos for an imported good. Want to buy a can of locally produced beans? Expect a better price in ARS than USD because the seller needs sheer volume to make money.
The more I think about this the more I realize nothing is as it seems....
Milei is not dollarizing the economy. Milei has created a new currency and it's an Argentine Dollar, or as I like to call it "Milei bucks".
A physical dollar cannot be printed by Argentina. It cannot control it's distribution and redemption value in the United States. The value of the US dollar in the USA cannot be manipulated by the Argentine central bank.
Milei bucks on the other hand is a virtual currency tied to the MEP rate. It is no different than an $1 share of an index fund. It's redemption value in physical dollars is determined at the time of it's liquidation based on a market price (MEP) minus (government dictated) transactional fees.
Can Milei control the distribution of Argentine dollars, yes...by regulating the MEP market. Can Milei manipulate the value of the Argentine Dollar, yes by buying and selling it against the peso or restricting it's redemption quantity.
It is no different than a USDT in that it is "tethered" to the value of a real dollar. By like any other crypto scam, the actual value is determined the quantity of actual dollars the crypto company has banked compared to the quantity of "tethered" crypto dollars it has in virtual circulation on it's platform.
What does this mean? We are back to the convertibility mouse trap and suspension of belief. As long as an Argentine Dollar can be redeemed for a real dollar it's trust and value exists. However, if Milei is caught "converting" more Argentine dollars for pesos than actually exists in the BCRA, then a redemption run will expose it's true value.
Who are the winners, who are the losers?
Those doing commerce in Arg USD are neither. They are simply using one instrument that the government determines the issuance and value of (Arg dollars) instead of another (Pesos).
The winners as Sergio so astutely pointed out are those who are taking pesos or Arg dollars and converting them into physical USD cash or transferring them into USD accounts abroad.
The losers are those who are taking physical USD cash or dollars from abroad and converting them into Argentine dollars (i.e. blanqueo).
The corralito will happen again...but this time there are no physical lock boxes of real dollars being confiscated. Instead it will be your digital dollar accounts being restricted from redemption to physical cash or transference abroad causing it's convertibility value to fall.
Blue will once again represent a real USD and the Argentine dollar will simply be MEP for laymen, having no actual value beyond domestic trade.