The economist's Argentine forecast

bf4

Active Member
#1
Not that bad, Paul NL, 7.5% GDP growth for the current year and 5 % for 2008 in a context where the world economy is slowing down. We argentines speak of "enfriarse". Nothing new all economies have their ups and downs.
Forecast
Apr 5th 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast











Country Forecast
Argentina

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The president, Nestor Kirchner of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, or Peronists), has a strong congressional position, and is well placed to win re-election at the poll in October 2007. There is a possibility that his wife, Cristina, a popular senator, may stand in his place, in which case the Economist Intelligence Unit would expect her to win. Either would continue to espouse an interventionist role for the state in the economy, in contrast with the free-market policies of the 1990s. The government will run a primary fiscal surplus (before interest) of around 3% of GDP in the forecast period. The government will use administrative measures to try to control inflation until after the 2007 elections, increasing the risk of a resurgence of inflation if these measures break down or if the eventual realignment in relative prices does not go smoothly. After another impressive, albeit slightly weaker, performance in 2007, GDP growth will begin to moderate from 2008 onward, as investment and consumption growth ease. As imports continue to outpace export growth, the current-account surplus will narrow as a percentage of GDP.

Key changes from last update

Political outlook

The possibility continues to grow that Mrs Kirchner will stand as the presidential candidate instead of her husband. The Kirchners will probably wait until August before taking a decision. She would probably run if they were confident of winning in the first round—something which is not clear at the moment. She currently enjoys ratings of 50% in the polls, around 10 percentage points lower than him.


Economic policy outlook

The government is widely considered to have manipulated the January and February inflation data to render a favourable reading, undermining the credibility of the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (the national statistics office).


Economic forecast

GDP grew by 8.5% in 2006. Our forecasts for GDP growth in 2007 and 2008 remain unchanged from last month, at 7.5% and 5%, respectively
 
#2
"Growth" for whom? Often countries have high growth rates but the beneficiaries continue to be a small group of rich while the poor continue to proliferate and indeed live even more miserable lives.
 

bf4

Active Member
#3
Wolf:
Once again do your homework, don't repeat just for the sake of it:) One thing is to mention and analyse the events, instituions that don't work and another is to invent and to "tirar mala onda""just for the sake of it. Not everything is rosy, we are not Norway nor Sweden but things have changed positively for everbody. Yet a lot remains to be done.









Argentina lidera la reducción de la pobreza en la región







































































































El país obtuvo el mejor resultado en el combate de la pobreza en los últimos cuatro años, al reducirla desde un 45,4 por ciento en el bienio 2000-2002 a un 26 por ciento en el período 2002-2005, según un informe de la CEPAL



La medición en Argentina influyó en la importante baja que registró el indicador en América latina y el Caribe, que se ubica hoy en 39,8 por ciento, señaló el informe, que destaca además la mejora en la distribución del ingreso en algunos países, la disminución del desempleo y el aumento de los puestos de trabajo.

El estudio de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe, denominado Panorama Social de Latinoamérica, concluyó que el último cuatrienio fue el de "mejor desempeño económico y social" en 25 años, con lo que la pobreza logró situarse por primera vez debajo de los niveles de 1980.

En Latinoamérica y el Caribe la pobreza afecta a unos 205 millones de personas, equivalentes al 38,5 por ciento de la población, según datos de este año difundidas en Santiago.

La cifra, correspondiente a una proyección, se compara favorablemente con el 39,8 por ciento de pobres que había en 2005, esto es, 209 millones de personas, según el informe Panorama Social de América Latina 2006, de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

"En los últimos cuatro años (2003-2006) América Latina ha mostrado un notable desempeño económico y social", consigna el documento, dado a conocer por el secretario ejecutivo del organismo, el argentino José Luis Machinea.

"Este período ha sido el mejor en 25 años en términos de progreso en la reducción de la pobreza, disminución del desempleo, mejora en la distribución del ingreso en algunos países y aumento en el número de puestos de trabajo", precisó el funcionario.

En cuanto a la pobreza extrema o indigencia, la CEPAL precisa que ésta se situó este año en un 14,7 por ciento (79 millones de personas), que equivalen a dos millones menos que el año pasado, cuando un 15,41 por ciento (81 millones de personas) vivían en estas condiciones.

El estudio de la CEPAL destaca que si las cifras se comparan con los resultados de 2000 y 2002, un número elevado de países presentó reducciones en sus tasas de pobreza e indigencia.

El documento establece que las mejoras más significativas se dieron en Argentina, que disminuyó notablemente su pobreza desde un 45,4 por ciento en el período 2000-2002 a un 26 por ciento en el período 2002/2005.

En tanto, en Venezuela la pobreza disminuyó del 48,6 por ciento en 2000-2002, al 37,1 por ciento entre 2002 y 2005. Asimismo, Colombia, Ecuador, México y Perú presentaron descensos de cerca de 4 puntos porcentuales en los periodos comparados por la CEPAL.

En el lado opuesto, la República Dominicana y Uruguay son los únicos países donde tanto la pobreza como la indigencia aumentaron entre 2002 y 2005 En el caso dominicano, la pobreza subió de un 44,9 por ciento de la población en 2002 a un 47,5 por ciento en 2005, mientras que en Uruguay el porcentaje aumentó desde un 15,4 por ciento en 2002 a un 18,8 por ciento en 2005.

Si bien el progreso general de América Latina es alentador, "no se debe olvidar que los niveles de pobreza siguen siendo muy elevados y que la región todavía tiene por delante una tarea de gran magnitud", indica la CEPAL en su informe.

A partir de estas estimaciones de pobreza, la CEPAL examinó el progreso de los países de la región en el logro del primer Objetivo de Desarrollo del Milenio de las Naciones Unidas, que es erradicar la pobreza extrema y el hambre para el año 2015.

"La disminución proyectada de la pobreza extrema para el 2006 corresponde a un avance de 69 por ciento hacia la consecución del primer objetivo y puede decirse que la región como un todo se encuentra bien encaminada en su compromiso de reducir a la mitad la pobreza extrema para el 2015", establece el documento.

Añade que Brasil y Chile son los únicos países que ya tienen cumplida la primera meta de las Naciones Unidas.

El organismo advierte, sin embargo, que la región ha demorado 25 años en reducir la incidencia de la pobreza a los niveles de 1980.

El informe también tiene capítulos especiales sobre los cambios en los principales indicadores del mercado del trabajo.

Al respecto, la CEPAL concluye que la recuperación de los empleos y parcialmente de las remuneraciones de los últimos años "no fue acompañada por un cambio significativo en la calidad de los nuevos puestos de trabajo".

Asimismo, aborda la situación de los pueblos indígenas de la región, marcada por una persistente desigualdad, lo que, afirma la CEPAL, constituye "un enorme desafío para las democracias del siglo XXI en materia de reformas estatales y de políticas".





















































http://www.degerencia.com/actualidad.php?actid=4086
 
#4
"bf4" said:
Once again do your homework, don't repeat just for the sake of it:)
I'm out of the loop so I have to be filled in. Can you provide a synopsis on the Spanish piece you attached? I have a fairly clear idea of what's happening in Brazil but not much for Argentina. I like the quarterly reports that the Economist Intelligence Unit comes out with but I presently don't have access to them.
 
#5
I wonder where the report says that when elections are around the government spending will be out of control or where it's says that if a K. wins the elections the government spending will be out of control or where it says that both BA province and province are running an huge deficit or where it says what is done to attract foreign investment
Looks like a report written by K.
 
#6
Five years after the crash.... the economy is recovering but the country's middle class whose savings were wiped out by the crisis is still impoverished. As for the poor, they are getting poorer. I didn't do my homework or give any stats but I think I got pretty close to the mark yes?
 

bf4

Active Member
#7
Wolf,
No spanish? What a fiaca, having to traduce the article, briefly it says that poverty has dropped from 46% from the 2001 to 26% in 2005, still high I know but anwyway a big progress from the 2001 statistics. For all of those who accuse me of Kirchenristas because the economic figures are still on his side, let me tell you that since I have been able to vote I have abstained myself from it.
Source: Cepal

P.S: "Nous pouvons parfaitement connaitre notre imperfection sans etre humiliés par cette vue""
 
#8
"bf4" said:
No spanish? What a fiaca, having to traduce the article, briefly it says that poverty has dropped from 46% from the 2001 to 26% in 2005, still high I know but anwyway a big progress from the 2001 statistics.
I'm sure poverty has dropped some, but out of curiosity what yardstick do they use to measure it with? In the US, for example, the official definition is an utter joke -- something like less than $12,000 annually for a family of four. If the Argeninian government is pulling the same trick, then it could show marked improvemement in the figures even though most people may still not be able to afford everyday necessities.
 
#9
"bigbadwolf" said:
No spanish? What a fiaca, having to traduce the article, briefly it says that poverty has dropped from 46% from the 2001 to 26% in 2005, still high I know but anwyway a big progress from the 2001 statistics.
I'm sure poverty has dropped some, but out of curiosity what yardstick do they use to measure it with? In the US, for example, the official definition is an utter joke -- something like less than $12,000 annually for a family of four. If the Argeninian government is pulling the same trick, then it could show marked improvemement in the figures even though most people may still not be able to afford everyday necessities.
300 peso or less for a family of 4 is extreme poverty, 800 peso for a family of 4 is poverty.
Like anywhere else in the world you need atleast 3000 peso to be comfortable in Argentina. My guess around 30%(mainly because children work) make it


 

bf4

Active Member
#10
Wolf,
I agree on that point, but even acknowledging that, it is better now than in 2001/2002. With what they call the "canasta basica satisfecha" that means with luck you will be eating, the definition of poverty or being above poverty doesn't by any means imply that you are having a good time. We agree on that. But that's the same for the US and in general the rest of the countries. For the northeast the yardstick is as you said sthg like us 12000 but what can you do in NYC or Boston with a monthly US$ 1000 check?. I would say it's even worse in the USA because of real estate prices which have become unaffordable not by the poor but by the middle class. More and more people keep commuting more than an hour and a half, two hours to reach their office, villages that are like 2 hours from DC have seen their prices soar as nearby DC suburbs (Chevy Chase,Bethesda in MD, Arlington, Alexandria and Tysons in Virginia) have become exclusiveness of the super rich. Nothing new.