Not that bad, Paul NL, 7.5% GDP growth for the current year and 5 % for 2008 in a context where the world economy is slowing down. We argentines speak of "enfriarse". Nothing new all economies have their ups and downs.
Forecast
Apr 5th 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast
Country Forecast
Argentina
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Five-year political, policy and economic forecast for each country plus a new long-term outlook section, including projections of key macroeconomic and market size variables up to 2031.
Business environment rankings to compare the attractiveness of different markets
Comparable coverage of 82 countries (27 OECD plus major emerging markets) plus regional overviews
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The president, Nestor Kirchner of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, or Peronists), has a strong congressional position, and is well placed to win re-election at the poll in October 2007. There is a possibility that his wife, Cristina, a popular senator, may stand in his place, in which case the Economist Intelligence Unit would expect her to win. Either would continue to espouse an interventionist role for the state in the economy, in contrast with the free-market policies of the 1990s. The government will run a primary fiscal surplus (before interest) of around 3% of GDP in the forecast period. The government will use administrative measures to try to control inflation until after the 2007 elections, increasing the risk of a resurgence of inflation if these measures break down or if the eventual realignment in relative prices does not go smoothly. After another impressive, albeit slightly weaker, performance in 2007, GDP growth will begin to moderate from 2008 onward, as investment and consumption growth ease. As imports continue to outpace export growth, the current-account surplus will narrow as a percentage of GDP.
Key changes from last update
Political outlook
The possibility continues to grow that Mrs Kirchner will stand as the presidential candidate instead of her husband. The Kirchners will probably wait until August before taking a decision. She would probably run if they were confident of winning in the first round—something which is not clear at the moment. She currently enjoys ratings of 50% in the polls, around 10 percentage points lower than him.
Economic policy outlook
The government is widely considered to have manipulated the January and February inflation data to render a favourable reading, undermining the credibility of the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (the national statistics office).
Economic forecast
GDP grew by 8.5% in 2006. Our forecasts for GDP growth in 2007 and 2008 remain unchanged from last month, at 7.5% and 5%, respectively
Forecast
Apr 5th 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast
Country Forecast
Argentina
http://store.eiu.com/product_home.asp?product_code=CF&code_type=pubcode&country_id=AR&promo=cbankhttp://store.eiu.com/product_home.asp?product_code=CF&code_type=pubcode&country_id=AR&promo=cbankSub price: US $1085.00 Single issue: US $575.00
Five-year political, policy and economic forecast for each country plus a new long-term outlook section, including projections of key macroeconomic and market size variables up to 2031.
Business environment rankings to compare the attractiveness of different markets
Comparable coverage of 82 countries (27 OECD plus major emerging markets) plus regional overviews
Click here to buy the complete Country Forecast from the EIU Store
The president, Nestor Kirchner of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, or Peronists), has a strong congressional position, and is well placed to win re-election at the poll in October 2007. There is a possibility that his wife, Cristina, a popular senator, may stand in his place, in which case the Economist Intelligence Unit would expect her to win. Either would continue to espouse an interventionist role for the state in the economy, in contrast with the free-market policies of the 1990s. The government will run a primary fiscal surplus (before interest) of around 3% of GDP in the forecast period. The government will use administrative measures to try to control inflation until after the 2007 elections, increasing the risk of a resurgence of inflation if these measures break down or if the eventual realignment in relative prices does not go smoothly. After another impressive, albeit slightly weaker, performance in 2007, GDP growth will begin to moderate from 2008 onward, as investment and consumption growth ease. As imports continue to outpace export growth, the current-account surplus will narrow as a percentage of GDP.
Key changes from last update
Political outlook
The possibility continues to grow that Mrs Kirchner will stand as the presidential candidate instead of her husband. The Kirchners will probably wait until August before taking a decision. She would probably run if they were confident of winning in the first round—something which is not clear at the moment. She currently enjoys ratings of 50% in the polls, around 10 percentage points lower than him.
Economic policy outlook
The government is widely considered to have manipulated the January and February inflation data to render a favourable reading, undermining the credibility of the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (the national statistics office).
Economic forecast
GDP grew by 8.5% in 2006. Our forecasts for GDP growth in 2007 and 2008 remain unchanged from last month, at 7.5% and 5%, respectively
One thing is to mention and analyse the events, instituions that don't work and another is to invent and to "tirar mala onda""just for the sake of it. Not everything is rosy, we are not Norway nor Sweden but things have changed positively for everbody. Yet a lot remains to be done.