The next Buenos Aires?

va2ba

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Before Buenos Aires, the number one place to be an expat was Lisbon (if I am not mistaken). After the economic crisis here, Buenos Aires become one of the best cities in the world in terms of rental prices and cost of living.

We all know that Buenos Aires will not stay this way. We all see it changing before our eyes. It may not get as expense as before the crisis but the days of cheap housing and even cheap food seem to be behind us.

This begs the question; What city will become the next big expat location?

With the finacial crisis in Greece and trouble brewing in Italy, Spain and Portugal, could we see one of these countries become the next place to be?

Any thoughts?
 

gouchobob

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va2ba said:
Before Buenos Aires, the number one place to be an expat was Lisbon (if I am not mistaken). After the economic crisis here, Buenos Aires become one of the best cities in the world in terms of rental prices and cost of living.

We all know that Buenos Aires will not stay this way. We all see it changing before our eyes. It may not get as expense as before the crisis but the days of cheap housing and even cheap food seem to be behind us.

This begs the question; What city will become the next big expat location?

With the finacial crisis in Greece and trouble brewing in Italy, Spain and Portugal, could we see one of these countries become the next place to be?

Any thoughts?

What happened in Argentina in 2001 isn't an everyday occurrence so I don't think I would count on another episode of that magnitude, although it is possible. The reason Argentina became cheap in 2001 was because of a drastic devaluation of its currency, the countries you mention in Europe use the Euro which they can't devalue. Of course they could withdraw from the E.U. set-up their own currency, but how likely is that?
 

va2ba

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Yes I understand that, and this is more of a hypothetical question. I don't really expect anyone to know whats going to happen.

But Buenos Aires is becoming more and more expensive. How long will it stay as one of the top expat locations?
 

gouchobob

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I would say that if the inflation continues in a couple of years there won't be many expats left, except for those in for the long haul, those with jobs or family ties in Argentina. You see a lot of people posting here that are considering coming based on out of date information that's its still cheap. Once in a while you see a post from a newcomer complaining they are finding B.A. more expensive than they were led to believe. However, I find it difficult to believe the inflation will continue forever. At some point the whole thing has to end. There are two possibilities in my opinion

1. A more responsible government is elected which adopts appropriate economic policies, over time inflation is tamed, investments increase, Argentina has a second golden age.

2. Current policies continue, the economy once again collapses, another major devaluation occurs.

I would hope for 1 but plan for 2.
 

Napoleon

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va2ba said:
Before Buenos Aires, the number one place to be an expat was Lisbon (if I am not mistaken). After the economic crisis here, Buenos Aires become one of the best cities in the world in terms of rental prices and cost of living.

I thought that it was Prague back in the '90s. Maybe that died by 2001, but I was there in March of 2000. I had been hearing about it for about 7 years and finally checked it out. It was kind of cheap, but not that cheap in the city center. But the one afternoon I ventured outside of the center on a tram, I found prices were ridiculously cheap.

Perhaps it will be somewhere in Asia. Bangkok has been fairly popular for a while and the cost of living I think is extremely cheap. I doubt that it will be Cape Town, because that country makes a quilombo look like an orderly place. But I'm thinking that the rest of Africa, all the Middle East, and nearly all of Asia would not be up for discussion. That's just a guess, but the idea seems very New World/Euro-centric.
 

dsc

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Do you know "International Living"?

It's a website and magazine that caters to those looking to expat from the First World to a cheaper, "expat" location.

I get a daily email from them and they're already pitching Colombia.

An email this week was talking about Medellin in particular.
 

argsteve

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Be Careful...International Living is about 50% real and about 50% just fantasy...... I met a guy that used to write for them..he would write about going to places and saying it was amazing and the next "it" place.. and he never had been to the country!!!..... International living is usually pitching a place and trying to sell you something.. either real estate or a book or a seminar....
My Dad went to Panama after reading some of their stuff.. what a mistake haha
But Colombia is very under-rated..... not a bad place to think about.... But I think any place that has a severe economic meltdown always seems to offer great real estate opportunites after the crash.. so Greece or Spain could be a good deal.... or of couse back to the USA.. you can buy a condo in las vegas for about a bottle of wine right now haha
 

syngirl

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argsteve said:
Be Careful...International Living is about 50% real and about 50% just fantasy...... I met a guy that used to write for them..he would write about going to places and saying it was amazing and the next "it" place.. and he never had been to the country!!!..... International living is usually pitching a place and trying to sell you something.. either real estate or a book or a seminar....
My Dad went to Panama after reading some of their stuff.. what a mistake haha
But Colombia is very under-rated..... not a bad place to think about.... But I think any place that has a severe economic meltdown always seems to offer great real estate opportunites after the crash.. so Greece or Spain could be a good deal.... or of couse back to the USA.. you can buy a condo in las vegas for about a bottle of wine right now haha


I agree, take everything you read on int'l living with a grain of salt -- more than half the time the prices are way out of date; a lot of the time the people writing the articles have only been to a place for 3 months, if that -- and as we all know there's a very different perspective between someone who has been in a place for a few months vs anyone that's lived there for a few years. Furthermore, yeah, some articles appear to be written by someone who doesn't have a clue.

They are definitely trying to get people to buy into developments, timeshares etc -- I wouldn't be surprised if the entire webiste is maintained by some timeshare association!
 

gouchobob

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Lee said:
Interesting you would mention Colombia. I am planning a trip there (probably next month) to Medellin is on the list of stops.

I have be told by several sources (not the magazine you mention - although I will check it out) that Medellin is highly appealing for several reasons.

We have been here in BA for 3 years and have discussed Colombia as the next move for quite awhile now.

Watch-out for IL magazine, it's just a bunch of shills touting real estate.

I have a nephew living in Bogota today. He pays $1500 a month in rent (3 bedroom apartment), he says water is very expensive, all imported items very expensive, quality of locally produced products not very good, sound familiar?

I don't know if there are any great bargains to be had in South America today. Many countries have had a boom in commodities which have driven up prices, particularly for housing. Watch what happens in China, if it slows down or slumps a lot of the economies in South America will slow down as well and prices will likely fall. It may become more affordable again.
 
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