US debt and recession + Social Security + CBDCs – any thoughts?

[JeffR]

Wondering if anyone has thoughts on any or all of these topics, either individually or together, or similar themes?

It appears that a major recession in the US is in the cards for Q1 2024, given the recent Treasury auctions and comments from numerous financial professionals. The amount of US government debt has been compared to a household earning $100K/year but having debt of $5.5 million.

Assuming the USD becomes weaker going forward, what is the effect on Social Security payments? Could US citizens living outside of the country receive a different level of benefits than those in the US? It seems like the ability to arbitrage a strong currency by living in a country with a lower relative cost of living is going to be significantly reduced.

Regarding CBDCs, I personally don’t see these being widely accepted, especially in countries where economies are cash based to a large degree. But could Social Security payments or USD transfers to foreign countries be impacted?

Just trying to come up with different scenarios of how this could play out over the next 10 or 20 years. I know that there are some pretty astute members on this site.

PS: I imagine the same comments regarding the US might apply to Canada and Europe as well, but I’m not familiar with those economies.

 

[gringoexpress]

They could just start paying your social security in USD CBDC. Someone will take it, but it would be worthless to you outside the US. Sound far-fetched? How does EBT work currently?

 

[lunar]

The amount of US government debt has been compared to a household earning $100K/year but having debt of $5.5 million.

Can a household simply print this $5.5 million to cover the debt?

 

[retiredbanker]

Wondering if anyone has thoughts on any or all of these topics, either individually or together, or similar themes?

It appears that a major recession in the US is in the cards for Q1 2024, given the recent Treasury auctions and comments from numerous financial professionals. The amount of US government debt has been compared to a household earning $100K/year but having debt of $5.5 million.

Assuming the USD becomes weaker going forward, what is the effect on Social Security payments? Could US citizens living outside of the country receive a different level of benefits than those in the US? It seems like the ability to arbitrage a strong currency by living in a country with a lower relative cost of living is going to be significantly reduced.

Regarding CBDCs, I personally don’t see these being widely accepted, especially in countries where economies are cash based to a large degree. But could Social Security payments or USD transfers to foreign countries be impacted?

Just trying to come up with different scenarios of how this could play out over the next 10 or 20 years. I know that there are some pretty astute members on this site.

PS: I imagine the same comments regarding the US might apply to Canada and Europe as well, but I’m not familiar with those economies.

Your SS payment will NOT decrease.

 

[Ries]

No evidence that any of this is likely.
but hey, we could get hit by an extinction level meteor next month.
anything is possible.
I am not losing any sleep worrying that my SS checks will be paid in Trump scrip anytime soon.

 

[grosso95]

Stop falling prey to youtube ads trying to call the next crisis to sell you their product. When it really happens you won't be warned.

 

[Johnny]

Stop falling prey to youtube ads trying to call the next crisis to sell you their product. When it really happens you won't be warned.

Amen to this. Youtube is in a race with Fox.