You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre

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If the world's largest, most vibrant economies are in trouble due to the coronavirus, what does that say about Argentina?

In this interconnected world, there is no way Argentina will get on it's feet anytime soon if the bigger world players are getting knocked down.

As the largest world economies slow down or go into recession, they will not be big consumers of Argentine exports.

And as far as any foreign investment in Argentina goes ... just forget about it because the focus is going to be elsewhere due to better opportunities in stronger countries that will get beaten down.

Given the Fernandez administration's way of addressing international arrivals / visitors ... tourism to this country is going to fall off of a cliff. And that is a very high cliff when measuring all of those lost USD & Euros that are going to be staying home. The hospitality industry is going to get crushed.

Debt restructuring? It will get a lot harder from this point forward. Whole portfolios of institutional investors are getting hammered. The likelihood they are going to let Argentina off the hook has diminished greatly.

I am not an economist, but it doesn't take one to think a few steps out and recognize what lies ahead for this country. I am seeing a lost decade, perhaps longer. The Argentine economy is on the cusp of a big slide. The country is about to lose a lot more jobs and the government is powerless to prevent it from occurring.

This is what I see playing out.
 

sergio

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If the world's largest, most vibrant economies are in trouble due to the coronavirus, what does that say about Argentina?

In this interconnected world, there is no way Argentina will get on it's feet anytime soon if the bigger world players are getting knocked down.

As the largest world economies slow down or go into recession, they will not be big consumers of Argentine exports.

And as far as any foreign investment in Argentina goes ... just forget about it because the focus is going to be elsewhere due to better opportunities in stronger countries that will get beaten down.

Given the Fernandez administration's way of addressing international arrivals / visitors ... tourism to this country is going to fall off of a cliff. And that is a very high cliff when measuring all of those lost USD & Euros that are going to be staying home. The hospitality industry is going to get crushed.

Debt restructuring? It will get a lot harder from this point forward. Whole portfolios of institutional investors are getting hammered. The likelihood they are going to let Argentina off the hook has diminished greatly.

I am not an economist, but it doesn't take one to think a few steps out and recognize what lies ahead for this country. I am seeing a lost decade, perhaps longer. The Argentine economy is on the cusp of a big slide. The country is about to lose a lot more jobs and the government is powerless to prevent it from occurring.

This is what I see playing out.

What you said seems obvious. When things turn sour at Ezeiza there's going to be a lot of screaming and frantic calls to embassies. Argentina will handle the situation incompetently and stir up a lot of resentment and ill will. There will be a lot of bad press. And as you said, this will hit the developed world hard which means it will devastate Argentina.
 

Pensador

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I can understand your feeling the need to alert us. I think most of us here have a good idea of what is in process globally at this time. We are watching this closely and there is another thread where this is being discussed. Probably best to keep comments in that thread for reference purposes.

 

perry

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The Argentinian economy under the cover of the virus can collapse completely and all banks can close and not reopen . Looking at the world situation and the devastation of the stock markets we can see a tsunami hitting Argentina . The peso is constantly devaluing , all businesses are facing bankruptcy , the homeless situation is much worse . How can Argentina now expect to shut down its cities for one month minimum ( I expect this will be at least 3 months) and not cause the biggest collapse of our economic history .

In a cuarantena like Italy applied to Argentina will be much worse as our population is much poorer and I can imagine that riots will break out in supermarkets if people cannot access food for their families . How will the current government react to this situation I do not know but its a scary scenario for those stuck in a large now poor city fighting over a few resources with your neighbours . Those in the countryside who are well stocked and protected will fare better of course . This scenario is the same worldwide . The timing of this could not be worse for the argentinian people now broken down for 2 years in this severe recession and now with a complete shutdown of the economy due to the covid 19 .
 
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on the brink

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The Argentinian economy under the cover of the virus can collapse completely and all banks can close and not reopen . Looking at the world situation and the devastation of the stock markets we can see a tsunami hitting Argentina . The peso is constantly devaluing , all businesses are facing bankruptcy , the homeless situation is much worse . How can Argentina now expect to shut down its cities for one month minimum ( I expect this will be at least 3 months) and not cause the biggest collapse of our economic history .

In a cuarantena like Italy applied to Argentina will be much worse as our population is much poorer and I can imagine that riots will break out in supermarkets if people cannot access food for their families . How will the current government react to this situation I do not know but its a scary scenario for those stuck in a large now poor city fighting over a few resources with your neighbours . Those in the countryside who are well stocked and protected will fare better of course . This scenario is the same worldwide . The timing of this could not be worse for the argentinian people now broken down for 2 years in this severe recession and now with a complete shutdown of the economy due to the covid 19 .
A fine gloating post - this is the Armageddom you've been predicting for ages Congratulations.....!

But beware - the starving city hordes may still find you and raid your survival cache of food and medicines.....!

The sky is falling, finally.....! Hallelujah.....!
 

perry

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A fine gloating post - this is the Armageddom you've been predicting for ages Congratulations.....!

But beware - the starving city hordes may still find you and raid your survival cache of food and medicines.....!

The sky is falling, finally.....! Hallelujah.....!

You cannot accept the truth can you . Your life is based on pure speculation determined on your stock balance for the day . Soon the Dow Jones will be less than 10000 points but surely you will gloat about buying in as to fool the gullible .
 

on the brink

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You cannot accept the truth can you . Your life is based on pure speculation determined on your stock balance for the day . Soon the Dow Jones will be less than 10000 points but surely you will gloat about buying in as to fool the gullible .

After going through three meltdowns, some with 45% losses, I watched my portfolio bounce back and quadruple.

Now, alas, it has shrunk again - I'm sorry report it is only triple what I started out with.

That should make Chicken Little happy. My gift for the day!
 
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TheDonald

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Many on this thread are taking a broader view of the economic implications to the Argentine economy. I believe this is appropriate. Argentina is in a particularly tricky spot due to its socialist, corrupt leadership. All those nasty comments by CFK towards the IMF may now come back to haunt Argentina. All those threatening and combative comments by other members of the socialist administration may now come back to haunt them. Argentina is going to need funding. And doors will all be closed. Maybe China will lend to Argentina, but that's selling the country's soul to the devil.

Macri is responsible for the very large debt load. But if Macri had been reelected, the IMF and international creditors would likely have rolled over the debt at acceptable cost to Argentina. No debt is going to be rolled over now - not by anyone.
 
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