2019 Real estate sales historic low

[perry]

El sector inmobiliario cerrará el año con los peores números de su historia

Devaluación, suba de las tasas de interés y la incertidumbre política y económica, fueron y son los principales enemigos de esta actividad

www.infobae.com

This year 2019 it is projected that there will be only 30,000 deeds changing hands in Buenos Aires the worst year ever recorded . These numbers are even worse than 2001 when Argentina had its last historic economic crash . In the first years of Nestor Kirchner government an average of 70,000 properties changed hands per year .

The peso is now 55 per dollar and the central bank is running out of us dollars where will the property market be in one or two years .

 

[lunar]

Quote from the article

La alta devaluación, que no se tradujo en una baja significativa de los precios de las propiedades ...

Doesn't sound too bad to me. Real estate seems to be holding value pretty well.

... where will the property market be in one or two years .

So, the end of the world is not tomorrow, and we can count for at least for two years ahead?

 

[perry]

Real estate sale prices are never recorded at the real value meaning that noone knows with clarity the real value per metre of their property . Demand for purchase is nearly non existent and the investor market for rental properties now is below 5 % of purchases ( In 2005 to 2011 this segment of the market formed 30% of all sales ).

If the peso suffers a huge devaluation in the coming year prices in us dollars will come down substantially . Rental yields are at historic lows due to the devalued peso and very high maintenance costs .

 

[Wanjammer1]

Thank your insights Perry.
So the best advice now is for property owners to hang on for the next two years if they can before trying to sell?

 

[steveinbsas]

I believe the peso will continue to fall in value and, as Perry suggests, that could result in lower dollar prices for properties in the next few years.

I think anyone who wants to sell and get out of the Argentine real estate market in the next two years should try to sell now (at a reasonable price if possible), before the prices take a nose dive.

I think anyone who wants to buy should wait. I don't the next recovery will be a repeat of what happened after 2001. I don't think prices will rebound or increase nearly as quickly in the next four or five years as food prices worldwide sre likely to skyrocket.

 

[FallenAngel]

I think people are overestimating Argentina's future. There is no crisis in Argentina right now. It is a little financial speed bump compared to what will come to Argentina. Hold on to property to sell in 2 years? That sounds insane to me.

Argentina will not be in a better position in 2 years. That will likely be when the real financial crisis actually hits. This is the silence before the storm.

 

[perry]

I think people are overestimating Argentina's future. There is no crisis in Argentina right now. It is a little financial speed bump compared to what will come to Argentina. Hold on to property to sell in 2 years? That sounds insane to me.

Argentina will not be in a better position in 2 years. That will likely be when the real financial crisis actually hits. This is the silence before the storm.

Anyone who has a property in Buenos Aires should sell now if they wish to guarantee a good price still . Yes prices have gone down since their peak 10 percent but this is very little considering how much they can go down in the next 5 years . Venezuela property prices have gone down close to 80percent in us dollars since their peak and something similar could happen here in Argentina . The fundamentals of our economy are tragic and there is no possible way to avoid a default of the foreign debt which is over 100 billion dollars . The central bank of Argentina is nearly broke and Argentina does not have us dollars to service its debts . This means that the currency the argentinian peso will devalue to very low levels . How low will it go it anyones guess but if we take as a indicator the 30% devaluation in just one day recently the possibilities are negative .

This recession is imho already much worse than 2001 as it will be much longer and peoples purchasing power is more affected due to very high inflation and devaluation of the local currency .

Property prices that one sees on the internet are illusional as 95% of these properties never sell . Only the best properties sell now in premium buildings or below market value properties. The counteroffers are very agressive up to 30% off in many cases which very few property owners are accepting . For those who will wait this out it could be 10 years before this crisis is over and in the meantime laws could change and prices in us dollars could devalue drastically in the next 5 years . Its always best to cut your losses and reinvest elsewhere .