An Inflation Moment

[gouchobob]

For four years on this forum I have been saying do not keep dollars and buy property or gold and I have been laughed at as well as attacked personally and privately by the likes of Gouchobob and others.

Over time these words have been proven to be correct and anyone who kept dollars in the last years has lost a absolute fortune in buying power.

Since 2008 I have moved 90 percent of all my monies into gold and continue to do so as a mighty monetary crash is coming very soon. Fiat currencies are the biggest risk for all now.

I will make only few points.

1. Gold except the current period has been a very poor investment, right now I would say people have been buying out of fear which has driven the price much higher than fundamentals would seem to justify. People could easily get savaged when the speculative psychology changes. What people are doing with gold now is speculation and not investment. Ten reasons gold is a bad investment in the link below.

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/10/09/10-reasons-why-investing-in-gold-is-a-bad-idea/

2. I believe real estate will be a bad investment for at least the next ten years. Around the world there has been a speculative bubble which drove prices beyond reasonable levels. Real estate is correcting in most countries. It still remains overvalued which overtime will correct. Does this mean prices will go down, not necessarily, prices could stagnate for years, which is the same thing after inflation as a price drop. Argentina is not immune to these realities and the outlook could be much darker than the touts will admit to. Overall I would say Argentina has had a good run up in prices which probably can't be sustained in the future.

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/artic...ting-argentinas-real-estate-market-56175.aspx

3. Dollar depreciation in the future is probably likely at least against some currencies. However to state people who have held dollars have lost a fortune in purchasing power is flat wrong.

 

[ghost]

In the perfect world, governments are suppose to pay debt with money that is already in circulation. They do not increase the money supply to service debt. Monetizing debt is when you borrow or print money to make the payments. It is a Ponzi scheme.

"Marco del Pont’s policy of printing pesos to buy dollars and weaken the local currency pushed Argentina’s reserves to a record $51.5 billion this week. As a result of the peso printing, the central bank had to raise the 2010 monetary expansion target in August to 29.4 percent from 19 percent."

Indeed, and one should expect inflation to match the 29.9% or worse. However I am very suspect of the $51.5 billion reserve number. Any reserve income must also be generated exclusively by comodities sales and the export taxes associated with them. If you look at the spending on social programs and the acreage under production and the gross tonnage booked to ship....nothing adds up.

 

[ghost]

For four years on this forum I have been saying do not keep dollars and buy property or gold and I have been laughed at as well as attacked personally and privately by the likes of Gouchobob and others.

Over time these words have been proven to be correct and anyone who kept dollars in the last years has lost a absolute fortune in buying power.

Since 2008 I have moved 90 percent of all my monies into gold and continue to do so as a mighty monetary crash is coming very soon. Fiat currencies are the biggest risk for all now.

You need to buy some ammo and food stocks with that gold because if a monetary crash of such magnitude does arrive there will be no practical way to spend and or transport gold. And worse yet, it won't be worth buying anything/anywhere because our entire social and physical infrastructure will have collapsed. Blade Runner in BA.

 

[SaraSara]

You need to buy some ammo and food stocks with that gold because if a monetary crash of such magnitude does arrive there will be no practical way to spend and or transport gold. And worse yet, it won't be worth buying anything/anywhere because our entire social and physical infrastructure will have collapsed. Blade Runner in BA.

Thanks for making my point so much better than I did.

 

[mini]

You need to buy some ammo and food stocks with that gold because if a monetary crash of such magnitude does arrive there will be no practical way to spend and or transport gold. And worse yet, it won't be worth buying anything/anywhere because our entire social and physical infrastructure will have collapsed. Blade Runner in BA.

If we get to the point where we need to start trading gold, you'd best know how to do something, fix something, make something, grow something. Owning an apartment in the city and some gold bars won't help.

I hope you have physical gold & not shares.

& like I said above, if we do get to that point, it's best to be mobile. With all your wealth in gold & property you'll be stuck or you'll have to abandon your wealth anyway.

 

[French jurist]

About the crisis, and for those who read french, here is an excellent blog (the author defends the hypothesis of a W shaped crisis, with the worst yet to come. He was one of the few who anticipated the 2007-2008 crisis too). I follow this blog since late 2008, the guy is not always right (mostly in terms of timing) but it's really a good read very far from conspiracy theories or such BS. His blog ranks 18 in France, with 20 million visitors each month (from all over the planet... he starts to be known).

http://tropicalbear.over-blog.com/
And since a few month he migrated to
http://www.objectifeco.com/bourse-2...un-cac-a-3-chiffres-vision-delirante-vraiment

 

[steveinbsas]

You need to buy some ammo and food stocks with that gold because if a monetary crash of such magnitude does arrive there will be no practical way to spend and or transport gold. And worse yet, it won't be worth buying anything/anywhere because our entire social and physical infrastructure will have collapsed. Blade Runner in BA.

Today I planted three fruit trees, bringing the total number planted this week to 15. In the past two weeks I also planted a vegetable garden, three citrus, two olive, and three nut bearing trees. Next week I'll go to the Tiro Federal to apply for my gun permit.

There is a 500 meter lot for sale in the nearby village for $21 USD per meter. There are also 2500 meters adjacent to my property (Mi Rancho Escondido) that are available for $15 USD per meter. The latter already has an installed irrigation system with ten cement planting beds and a dense firewood forest.

While my dollars are still worth something I plan to buy a lot more fruit trees.

Who wants to be my neighbor?

(Who is John Galt?)

 

[fifs2]

Gold has been the most valuable commodity for thousands of years . much longer than any fiat currency . Gold has been traded for food since ancient greek times and is accepted in all cultures as the most divine barter from greek, chinese, indian , persian etc etc.

I think you will find that 2 centuries ago in the Western world, Eastern spices and indeed pepper had more worth than gold or other precious metals or stones......of course I'm not saying that gold will become such a common commodity as pepper is today but its worth noting that the future has a way of developing in a way that our minds of the present cannot conceive.

 

[SaraSara]

I read somewhere that rare coins and stamps are the best investments ever.

You can't eat them, either, but at least they are more interesting to look at than plain gold bars.

 

[perry]

Human beings have lived for 1000s of years and have prospered and built sophisticated societies with the barter of goods backed by real worth. Printing trillions of dollars and then putting a value of goods of this sorcery will come crashing down soon.

In regards to Gouchobobs comments about the dollars buying power and what it can buy in Argentina since his infamous comments in 2007 and 2008 about keeping your savings in dollars most who listened to him have lost over 40 percent of their purchasing power since then . Buying food, clothing, cars, sustainable land, gold , silver have increased in value in Argentina by over 50 percent in dollar terms from 2007.

Gold is only worth something in its physical form not shares which are also a worthless asset in a crisis.