This is a good article on that topic called the Paradox of Preparation - https://kottke.org/20/03/the-paradox-of-preparation
Anybody else thinking the cure is worse than the disease?
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This is a good article on that topic called the Paradox of Preparation - https://kottke.org/20/03/the-paradox-of-preparation
demokritos
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That's the best case scenario and what every leader instituting lockdown would hope people say afterward
Somewhereinba
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We cannot stay inside forever. Dengue, Yellow Fever, Malaria, Car crash, Getting run over, Suicide, seasonal flu, robbery/crime are all risks that people were willing to take by stepping foot outside before this thing hit. People are acting like before this no one was dying of other causes and the whole world was one big happy safe place. It's simply not true. The media has created such a panic people are actually believing this is the end of the world. If they keep this quarantine and economic shutdown long enough then we will have way bigger problems than those dying who mostly had underlying health conditions beforehand. Sorry to say but part of being a human is accepting the risk and reality that you WILL die - it is my view that extending the shutdown longer will cause more damage/deaths than keeping economies closed. Lets see what happens. Politicians/Governments are made of older people (higher risk) who do not give a fuck because they get paid anyway - they won't be losing their jobs or employment will they? So of course they assume no risk if they shut everything down. They just print more money and pretend like things are fine. Yer right.
FallenAngel
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Yes, absolutely. The cure is way worse than the disease. Right now people think the government will save them, so why not stay home and receive a salary from government. Sounds like a good deal. When the reality hits of what their life looks like when this is over they will be praying that they could go back and never institute quarantines. For most people this will result in a giant haircut in quality of life going forward.
My suspicion is that as we get more data we will also realize coronavirus threat was severely overblown. Basically, most of these countries blew up their economy for nothing. Certainly, they are receiving a negative ROI on their quarantine.
My suspicion is that as we get more data we will also realize coronavirus threat was severely overblown. Basically, most of these countries blew up their economy for nothing. Certainly, they are receiving a negative ROI on their quarantine.
Clearly not all the cases are being recorded due to limited testing, but is the death count being underreported as well?
www.nytimes.com
The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)
Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.
Pierre Smith
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I've written elsewhere on here about my office's covid 19 infestation. I'm going to be tested for antibodies this week to confirm (two step process). Only one person got even mildly sick (well, to the point of hospitalization) out of almost 30 people exposed, and not one of their family members.
When someone you know dies, I could see how it hits you hard and possibly makes you refuse to consider evidence inconsistent with your view of the gravity of the situation. Particularly when many of the various media outlets, and public health authorities are relying on and making decisions based on very data-light analyses of worst case scenarios. Another dark issue is that it has been politicized, with some right wing people (notably our president) suggesting that it's not so bad. The fact that he's probably accidentally correct is sort of galling.
One thing is becoming clear - even if this thing is no deadlier than the seasonal flu, it spreads far far quicker. Which is probably one of the main things that make it seem so much more deadly - many more people will get it.
As more data come in, you should try to push past the politics, fear, and anecdotal experience, and continue to rely on the experts, who are already starting to revise their opinions, as they get access to better data. See here, for example: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
The good news is that this virus is far far less lethal than we had feared, at least two orders of magnitude less lethal that was sometimes suggested. The bad news is that before we knew that, we nuked the global economy.
Now, assuming the data continue to show what we've seen in the past week, we need to end the lockdowns.
When someone you know dies, I could see how it hits you hard and possibly makes you refuse to consider evidence inconsistent with your view of the gravity of the situation. Particularly when many of the various media outlets, and public health authorities are relying on and making decisions based on very data-light analyses of worst case scenarios. Another dark issue is that it has been politicized, with some right wing people (notably our president) suggesting that it's not so bad. The fact that he's probably accidentally correct is sort of galling.
One thing is becoming clear - even if this thing is no deadlier than the seasonal flu, it spreads far far quicker. Which is probably one of the main things that make it seem so much more deadly - many more people will get it.
As more data come in, you should try to push past the politics, fear, and anecdotal experience, and continue to rely on the experts, who are already starting to revise their opinions, as they get access to better data. See here, for example: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
The good news is that this virus is far far less lethal than we had feared, at least two orders of magnitude less lethal that was sometimes suggested. The bad news is that before we knew that, we nuked the global economy.
Now, assuming the data continue to show what we've seen in the past week, we need to end the lockdowns.
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antipodean
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This is a disease that currently does not have a cure.
The problem is that when a health system gets overwhelmed, everything else goes down the drain with it as even more people die from lack of medical attention from unrelated illnesses and accidents. Poor health costs money. The fact that "most" people have mild symptoms or get better with a few weeks of bed rest is simply irrelevant due to the speed that it spreads compounding the "minority" of people who will require hospital or ICU care - often occupying hospital beds for weeks on end, many of whom do not survive.
People get sick, they stay in bed or die. People get scared, they stay home. Sick people, dead people or scared people don´t spend money like healthy people.
Quarantine = economic cost. No quarantine = economic cost. COVID-19 is here. COVID-19 is worldwide. It is not going anywhere soon.
E.g. Imagine if there was never a quarantine, COVID-19 cases go gangbusters a la Italy, you are open for business but many of your employees and some family members are sick and most customers are too scared to leave their homes so you are only trading a fraction of your pre-COVID-19 levels - since you are open for business no one wants to hear your financial sob story and aid packages are not available - how does being open for business actually help the situation? How much more time and effort will it take to get things under control enough to calm the panic to be able to get back to productive conditions?
All countries, even the initial deniers and innovators, have been forced by fact to implement social distancing measures with economic price tags attached. While some countries have different approaches to how they implement social distancing, the social contexts are not the same. Regardless none of these measures are actually a cure, just a pain killer with a half-life of four hours.
The problem is that when a health system gets overwhelmed, everything else goes down the drain with it as even more people die from lack of medical attention from unrelated illnesses and accidents. Poor health costs money. The fact that "most" people have mild symptoms or get better with a few weeks of bed rest is simply irrelevant due to the speed that it spreads compounding the "minority" of people who will require hospital or ICU care - often occupying hospital beds for weeks on end, many of whom do not survive.
People get sick, they stay in bed or die. People get scared, they stay home. Sick people, dead people or scared people don´t spend money like healthy people.
Quarantine = economic cost. No quarantine = economic cost. COVID-19 is here. COVID-19 is worldwide. It is not going anywhere soon.
E.g. Imagine if there was never a quarantine, COVID-19 cases go gangbusters a la Italy, you are open for business but many of your employees and some family members are sick and most customers are too scared to leave their homes so you are only trading a fraction of your pre-COVID-19 levels - since you are open for business no one wants to hear your financial sob story and aid packages are not available - how does being open for business actually help the situation? How much more time and effort will it take to get things under control enough to calm the panic to be able to get back to productive conditions?
All countries, even the initial deniers and innovators, have been forced by fact to implement social distancing measures with economic price tags attached. While some countries have different approaches to how they implement social distancing, the social contexts are not the same. Regardless none of these measures are actually a cure, just a pain killer with a half-life of four hours.
