Argentina’s Javier Milei has made a horrible mistake

The Big Mac Index mentioned in that article. Note that most recent data is June 2024. I am late to read this year, usually I hear about it sooner. Economist published 3 weeks ago
Argentina is now among the most expensive countries in the world, close to Norway on the Big Mac index. It costs almost twice as much to buy a hamburger in Buenos Aires as it does in Tokyo, even though the pampas are full of cattle, while the rice terraces of Japan are not.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/big-mac-index

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GDP adjusted. those countries with low GDP should have lower cost burgers
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"He is now trapped. Either he claws back lost competitiveness by means of deflationary wage cuts for year after year – nigh impossible in any democracy – or he lets the peso find its level and unleashes a fresh inflation, shattering his reputation at home and abroad as the Friedmanite purist who tamed prices."

A very worrisome prescient quote in that article...
 
"He is now trapped. Either he claws back lost competitiveness by means of deflationary wage cuts for year after year – nigh impossible in any democracy – or he lets the peso find its level and unleashes a fresh inflation, shattering his reputation at home and abroad as the Friedmanite purist who tamed prices."

A very worrisome prescient quote in that article...

"He may muddle through if we really are on the cusp of another commodity super-cycle, though in no better shape than emerging market peers. Or he may impale himself on the peso. Either way, an army of ideological fans around the world are projecting a lot of wishful thinking onto their libertarian pin-up politician."

And that's the thing. His "ideological fans around the world" are not here. They don't have to live with the consequences of this "first experiment in Austrian economics ever attempted in a modern developed state". They don't have to deal with rent going up and up, and the price of all types of food going up and up, while the value of our incomes goes down and down and down.

To them we are an experiment, like little lab rats. But to us, this is our lives, this is our struggle to survive.
 
"He is now trapped. Either he […] or he lets the peso find its level and unleashes a fresh inflation”

What’s stopping him leaving things exactly as they are? In spite of the insane prices most Argentinians aren’t complaining (beats me why) about the situation, so he has no reason to do much of anything
 
We were fooled by the hysterics and the chainsaw show. From the article:

"Milei had a unique chance to free up everything in one bold move. He could have followed the big bang model of Germany’s Ludwig Erhard, who hacked down a thicket of controls and unleashed a supply-side miracle. A stable Deutsch Mark emerged almost overnight from the hyperinflation of 1948. Milei, instead, bottled it".

But to do that, there had to be a plan to come in on day one and execute it. There had to be people working in the background, taking ideas from think-tanks and creating position papers. getting heavy-hitters on board, plus people doing the dirty horse-trading to make sure everything got done.

But, there was no plan. Just a half-baked untested ideological grab-bag that didn't survive contact with reality. Very interesting article @elhombresinnombre, thanks for sharing. Just waiting for someone to come along and shout that the Telegraph is a disgusting left-wing rag :)

There is something I disagree with, though: "Milei’s timing was flawless". His timing was completely accidental. He had nothing to do with the improved grain harvest, the ending of the drought, the coming on stream of Vaca Muerta, or the gas ducts that will enable selling gas to Brazil and Chile (in fact, he actively worked against several of those). If, as seems likely, he ruins us all and doubles down by insulting us, a helicopter will be too good for him.
 
"He is now trapped. Either he […] or he lets the peso find its level and unleashes a fresh inflation”

What’s stopping him leaving things exactly as they are? In spite of the insane prices most Argentinians aren’t complaining (beats me why) about the situation, so he has no reason to do much of anything
Agree, I don't see the political motivation to change anything in any hurry.

The more expensive Argentina becomes with a strong peso, the richer Argentines who have a formal job paid in pesos will feel as the last few years of feeling very poor in dollars are still fresh in their minds (even if they are still struggling to pay all their bills and live la dolce vita) thus the more likely they will be to continue supporting this government. Add the fact that consumer credit is increasingly "cheap" and easy to come by, letting people live beyond their means and buy things they have not been able to in years.
Each week I and most everyone I know are getting calls and "special offers" from the banks offering pre-approved loans for very high amounts while credit card limits are in the tens of thousands of dollars. By September the banks already gave out more than US$125 million in residential mortgage loans (almost doubling in just one month from US$67m in August!)

What I do suspect however is that when the new laws allowing both prices and transactions to be established in USD and ARS plus domestic USD debit cards are introduced, the government will hope that more people and businesses move their pesos and day-to-day business into dollars - which is today "cheap", easy and unlimited to do so - so they can start to let the peso devalue with less political cost of a forced devaluation today as prices in dollars should remain more or less stable, while hoping that the peso eventually recovers stability once things cool off. The issue I see is that most debts incurred up until then and taxes used to keep the state's lights on will be still need to be paid in pesos.
Either way, I am not expecting a "cheap" Argentina anytime soon.
 
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"He may muddle through if we really are on the cusp of another commodity super-cycle, though in no better shape than emerging market peers. Or he may impale himself on the peso. Either way, an army of ideological fans around the world are projecting a lot of wishful thinking onto their libertarian pin-up politician."

And that's the thing. His "ideological fans around the world" are not here. They don't have to live with the consequences of this "first experiment in Austrian economics ever attempted in a modern developed state". They don't have to deal with rent going up and up, and the price of all types of food going up and up, while the value of our incomes goes down and down and down.

To them we are an experiment, like little lab rats. But to us, this is our lives, this is our struggle to survive.
Nobody reading this is struggling to survive. Cutting back isn't struggling.
 
Agree, I don't see the political motivation to change anything in any hurry.

The more expensive Argentina becomes with a strong peso, the richer Argentines who have a formal job paid in pesos will feel as the last few years of feeling very poor in dollars are still fresh in their minds (even if they are still struggling to pay all their bills and live la dolce vita) thus the more likely they will be to continue supporting this government. Add the fact that consumer credit is increasingly "cheap" and easy to come by, letting people live beyond their means and buy things they have not been able to in years.
Each week I and most everyone I know are getting calls and "special offers" from the banks offering pre-approved loans for very high amounts while credit card limits are in the tens of thousands of dollars. By September the banks already gave out more than US$125 million in residential mortgage loans (almost doubling in just one month from US$67m in August!)

What I do suspect however is that when the new laws allowing both prices and transactions to be established in USD and ARS plus domestic USD debit cards are introduced, the government will hope that more people and businesses move their pesos and day-to-day business into dollars - which is today "cheap", easy and unlimited to do so - so they can start to let the peso devalue with less political cost of a forced devaluation today as prices in dollars should remain more or less stable, while hoping that the peso eventually recovers stability once things cool off. The issue I see is that most debts incurred up until then and taxes used to keep the state's lights on will be still need to be paid in pesos.
Either way, I am not expecting a "cheap" Argentina anytime soon.
I totally think the same re the dollarisation. This year, all those rents that were dollarised rents in 2023 have not increased much, if at all, this year.

And that's the thing. His "ideological fans around the world" are not here. They don't have to live with the consequences of this "first experiment in Austrian economics ever attempted in a modern developed state".

Massively agree, I see so many people from Europe and the US, like Elon Musk for example, commenting what a great job Milei is doing and they have no idea what it’s really like to be here and living through this.

And yeah, Milei has dug himself a hole with the “super peso” as this is a problem he has caused and can’t blame anyone else for.

Time will tell.
 
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