Argentina’s markets on edge as Milei’s radical agenda faces electoral test

[MilHojas]

Argentina’s markets on edge as Milei’s radical agenda faces electoral test

Sunday’s election in Buenos Aires province presents the biggest challenge yet to right-wing president’s libertarian project

Archived version

 

[retiredbanker]

BNA peso opened up 5% today at 1450.

 

[rob0001]

Yes, the radical financial agenda of cutting costs, not spending money you don't have and not printing money as fast as possible.. hahaha
His social policies are mostly idiotic however.

 

[Ries]

Yes, the radical financial agenda of cutting costs, not spending money you don't have and not printing money as fast as possible.. hahaha
His social policies are mostly idiotic however.

Actuallly that is the textbook definition of "Austerity Economics", the libertarian fantasy that has failed every time it has been implemented. Greece only survived its ravages due to extreme loans from richer EU countries. The UK has been driven to its knees by this type of lunacy, and the few times Libertarian models have been tried elsewhere, they have been resounding failures, contradicting all the promised results.
The much vaunted Missouri experiment has been, on every front, a spectacular failure.
Cutting taxes, and "costs", fails, every time. Instead, what Argentina needs is a comprehensive Industrial Policy that uses Government leverage to promote Value Added Exports, Education, a reasonable, progressive rewrite of the tax system, and social services where they actually benefit the people and the economy.
Its not rocket science, a couple of dozen very diverse countries around the world make it work.

 

[Konner_Long]

Agreed Ries. Countries are not like people or even businesses. Turns out that it's more complicated than simply cutting (chainsawing?) back on avo toast and Starbucks. Anyone who says otherwise is selling a lie.
Those social safety nets that everyone loves to rag on happen to generate a tonne of money downstream. By not having a population that is hungry, uneducated, immobile, sick, or destitute, people are more likely to contribute to the economy.

The same way you can't just print money to improve the economy, you really can't just cut everything and expect the economy to automagically improve. Who is going to drive demand when people have no money? The trees, cows, the Argentinians in Miami?

Greece was also never going to be allowed to fail as long as it was in the EU, so it's not even a fair comparison. Maybe if Mercosur was more like the EU then Argentina would have been different, but It's really in the territory of Ifs and Buts now.

 

[IamWaldo]

Take in account manipulation now too;

Before he would protect the peso at (almost) all costs..
Now after he election he won't do this.. and he will say see..
this is what you get if you vote against my policy..

While both are staged

 

[sergio]

How is borrowing billions from the IMF "libertarian"? How is using the money to control the peso Libertarian?
Also what defines Libertarian foreign policy?

 

[QuilmesSlo]

put Kirchner back in, and expats will live far again, as young argentines flee their homeland for greener pastures.

 

[Ries]

How is borrowing billions from the IMF "libertarian"? How is using the money to control the peso Libertarian?
Also what defines Libertarian foreign policy?

borrowing from the IMF is not libertarian, nor, in fact is it any different from Peronism.
Argentina has defaulted on IMF loans 21 times since 1956, and it has been done by Peronists, Military dictatorships, left, center and right wing governments, elected, appointed, and siezed.
Its an Argentine tradition, and, frankly, has no allegiance to any political philosophy.

Libertarian is a word that means whatever you want it to mean, but in terms of foreign policy its generally understood as isolationist, which is also a description of Peronism.
What IS libertarian is to cut taxes, government services, and insist the private sector will miraculously fix everything.
Which never works.
Milei has done basically nothing to change the high tariffs and frictional costs of import or export, despite professing that to be his goals.

Milei is no intellectual, regardless of his diplomas, and he has never really had a real job, or run a business.
He spouts a weird mix of libertarianism, classic peronism, conservative judiaism, and professional wrestler policies.
He is, in my opinion, a Chamayero, or as the late great Hunter Thompson put it, "a cheapjack hustler".
There is no coherent policy, no consistency, and he created the huge gains in inflation that he claims to have stopped.

 

[Konner_Long]

put Kirchner back in, and expats will live far again, as young argentines flee their homeland for greener pastures.

Pointing out flaws in Milei's economic plan does not equate to being pro Krichner...