Argentina’s markets on edge as Milei’s radical agenda faces electoral test

[Vossos]

Wait, hang on, there’s a runway to using IMF bailouts to continue to prop up the peso? I thought it was a stable policy rather than kicking the can down the road

 

[carride]

Some of Argentina’s hard-currency bonds tumbled by nearly 7 cents to 55 cents on the dollar, the steepest drop in two years, sending the yield hurtling up to 12.7%. The local stock market tanked 13% in the worst one-day rout since the onset of the pandemic. And as global investors rushed to the exits, the peso slid as much as 7% to a new all-time low. As the selloff got underway, Morgan Stanley ditched its optimism.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/morgan-stanley-s-flip-flop-shows-speed-of-crisis-ensnaring-milei

Archived

 

[QuilmesSlo]

Pointing out flaws in Milei's economic plan does not equate to being pro Krichner...

Of course you are right as an intellectual proposition. As a political proposition, it's one or the other, no?

 

[Alby]

At this point, it would be interesting to hear people's thoughts about what happens in the event this government falls, either through parliament, or at the next presidential election.

Caputo said yesterday it's either this or communism from 2027. But surely that's a bit hysterical. If the libertarian extreme cannot sustain itself, due to the wrong economic recipe within liberalism, poor communication of the right economic recipe, political ineptitude, arrogance, alleged or proven corruption and bribery, administrative incompetence, or a combination of some or all of the foregoing, does it necessary follow that it's Axel in 2027 and a return to the policies of the Kirchner administrations? Surely most people wouldn't want that. Surely there would be the opportunity for other figures from the liberal end of the spectrum with greater political acumen to fill the space Milei leaves and moderate his excesses and attract votes from those who don't want to go back to the recent past.

 

[Ries]

While there is actually a communist party in Argentina, they have even less seats and popularity than La Avanza.
I know, its hard to have less support than La Avanza, but the communists seem to have achieved it.
So the probability of a Communist government is pretty low.
In reality, the same few families, the same few oligarchs, tend to get what they want, as evidenced by Milei being unable to change anything that affects them, and I have little hope that a future government will do any better at basic structural, tax, tariff, and economic reforms than Milei, because the people who have streets named after their grandfathers like it the way it is.

 

[Alby]

Probably. But that's a different direction of conversation than the one I was hoping to generate in my post, which is whether (i) the fall of this government would automatically lead back to the one that came before it, whether headed by El Sovietico or someone equally associated with the previous government and its like-minded predecessors, or whether (ii) a more moderate and competent alternative from the right would have a chance of filling that space and appealing to enough voters from outside the conourbano to keep the previous regime and system from returning in 2027.

 

[Ries]

Probably. But that's a different direction of conversation than the one I was hoping to generate in my post, which is whether (i) the fall of this government would automatically lead back to the one that came before it, whether headed by El Sovietico or someone equally associated with the previous government and its like-minded predecessors, or whether (ii) a more moderate and competent alternative from the right would have a chance of filling that space and appealing to enough voters from outside the conourbano to keep the previous regime and system from returning in 2027.

Ah, the irrepressible optimisim of the right...
"moderate and competent"?
who were thinking of?
Pinochet? Bolsanero? Modi? Putin? Netanyahu? Orban? Meloni? Ishiba? Yoon Suk Yool?
Or perhaps old favorites like George W, Maggie Thatcher, or Ronald Reagan?
Orpo, in Finland, is considered to be "right wing" there, but most of what he supports would probably be considered raging socialism elsewhere. He is in favor of very slight changes in immigration, debt, and the economy, but still in favor of universal health care, education, social services, housing, and so on.
He is the only example I can think of as a right wing that is competent and moderate, but his actual coalition is pretty tenuous, and the left still has a very strong presence in Scandinavia.
And his country is based on a progressive income tax, VAT, and pretty high capital gains, property, corporate, and inheritance taxes.
In Argentina today, virtually nobody pays income tax, and aside from VAT, the other taxes are all either effectively non-existent, or so low and with so many loopholes that they make up almost zero government income.
The "right" is not interested in progressive taxation, which is the only thing that will actually change Argentina for the better.

 

[sergio]

borrowing from the IMF is not libertarian, nor, in fact is it any different from Peronism.
Argentina has defaulted on IMF loans 21 times since 1956, and it has been done by Peronists, Military dictatorships, left, center and right wing governments, elected, appointed, and siezed.
Its an Argentine tradition, and, frankly, has no allegiance to any political philosophy.

Libertarian is a word that means whatever you want it to mean, but in terms of foreign policy its generally understood as isolationist, which is also a description of Peronism.
What IS libertarian is to cut taxes, government services, and insist the private sector will miraculously fix everything.
Which never works.
Milei has done basically nothing to change the high tariffs and frictional costs of import or export, despite professing that to be his goals.

Milei is no intellectual, regardless of his diplomas, and he has never really had a real job, or run a business.
He spouts a weird mix of libertarianism, classic peronism, conservative judiaism, and professional wrestler policies.
He is, in my opinion, a Chamayero, or as the late great Hunter Thompson put it, "a cheapjack hustler".
There is no coherent policy, no consistency, and he created the huge gains in inflation that he claims to have stopped.

If I understand you, he cannot be called a Libertarian because of all the inconsistencies you cite. Would you agree that he is far right on social issues, aligned with a number of the world's most conservative leaders?