Argentina and the joint Israeli/US war on Iran

aloevera

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The US just bombed 3 nuclear-related sites in Iran. This means the US will end up going to war with Iran, probably eventually launching a ground invasion (that will be doomed to fail from the start).
Seeing as Argentine authorities hold Iran responsible for the AMIA and Israeli embassy bombings, and also seeing that Milei loves sucking up to Israel (see article), this subject is highly relevant to Argentina. In the Gulf War (1991), Argentina participated alongside the US and its coalition. Do we think Milei will participate in this war? What do you think the impacts on Argentina will be? I'm starting this general discussion thread for everyone who wants to discuss potential Argentine involvement in the conflict, fleeing the USA to Argentina, implications for Argentina, and any and all other related topics.
 
This is a slight tangent on this thread’s topic (so admin, feel free to do what you need to do) and admittedly a little egocentric on my part, but I don’t really know where else I could post my thoughts on the situation.

This recent development hits me hard in a number of ways. Not just being from the United States with family and other people I love and care about there, but also as a person with former students and acquaintances in Israel. The actions and policies of government of most any country in the world mustn’t automatically be considered a direct reflection of many of the country’s citizens and what they believe in or want… but in a situation like this, it’s not the first thing taken into consideration.

The fact is my anxiety has gone from bad to worse recently, to the point that it’s debilitating, and waking up to this latest news has hit me in the gut in the worst of ways. This is not good any way you slice it. Like, really, really bad. My fears are currently impeding me from focusing and functioning, especially when I think about my two kids.

I feel powerless from being able to do anything productive. I also already feel a sense of guilt that I am physically far removed from the conflict here in Argentina while so many others are or will be direly vulnerable. I am wondering how to get through one day at a time when I can barely get through an hour or two without the compulsion to doomscrolling or let my imagination run away with me.

Am I the only one feeling this way? Is there anything I should be taking into consideration? I don’t want to come off as Chicken Little, but I am just trying to cling to some shred of hope that doomsday is not how it’s going to end.

Please be kind in your responses, I’m really not okay.
 
This is not good any way you slice it. Like, really, really bad.
I don’t understand at all. Objectively speaking what happened is neutral-to-good, but definitely not bad.

A country which has been screaming “Death to the USA” for decades and has been actively funding global terrorism has had its ability to create nuclear weapons stopped before it was too late. The world now gets to breathe for a couple decades before the next fringe lunatic tries making a nuclear bomb for the purpose of threatening others with it. This is objectively a positive development for all.

Iran has no weapons capable of reaching the USA and has no friends left either, save for Russia which is too preoccupied with their invasion of Ukraine to have the resources to help Iran. The only thing they could do is send a missile at a US base in the Middle East, nothing more.

Israel is already saying its planning to wind down the attacks on Iran now that they’ve destroyed all the nuclear sites.

I’m not sure what your feeling so doomsday about, if anything the world is arguably safer today than last week.
 
I don’t understand at all. Objectively speaking what happened is neutral-to-good, but definitely not bad.

A country which has been screaming “Death to the USA” for decades and has been actively funding global terrorism has had its ability to create nuclear weapons stopped before it was too late. The world now gets to breathe for a couple decades before the next fringe lunatic tries making a nuclear bomb for the purpose of threatening others with it. This is objectively a positive development for all.

Iran has no weapons capable of reaching the USA and has no friends left either, save for Russia which is too preoccupied with their invasion of Ukraine to have the resources to help Iran. The only thing they could do is send a missile at a US base in the Middle East, nothing more.

Israel is already saying its planning to wind down the attacks on Iran now that they’ve destroyed all the nuclear sites.

I’m not sure what your feeling so doomsday about, if anything the world is arguably safer today than last week.
While it’s understandable to view the recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a positive development from a nonproliferation standpoint, the situation is more complex than simply “neutral-to-good.” Here are several points to consider:

1. The Strikes Severely Damaged Iran’s Nuclear Infrastructure, but Risks Remain
It is true that major nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow were extensively damaged or “obliterated,” according to both U.S. and Israeli sources. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Esfahan complex, a key site, suffered repeated and extensive damage, though they also noted that most facilities hit contained little or no nuclear material, limiting immediate radiological risk. President Trump and Israeli officials declared the strikes a success, claiming Iran’s nuclear program is “no longer” operational.

2. The World Is Not Necessarily Safer—Retaliation and Escalation Risks Have Increased
While the strikes may have set back Iran’s ability to quickly develop nuclear weapons, they have also sharply raised regional tensions. Within hours, Iran launched a significant missile barrage at Israel, prompting air raid sirens and injuries in multiple locations. Iranian officials have vowed to defend their country and consider all U.S. citizens and military personnel in the region as legitimate targets. The risk of a broader conflict, including potential attacks on U.S. bases or interests in the Middle East, has increased, not decreased.

3. The Question of Iran’s Capabilities and Alliances Is More Nuanced
It’s inaccurate to suggest Iran has “no friends left.” Russia remains a strategic partner, with ongoing military and civilian nuclear cooperation, and Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Moscow for urgent talks with President Putin immediately after the strikes. Iran also retains influence through allied groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Shia militias, as well as the ability to disrupt key maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran’s direct missile reach to the U.S. mainland is limited, its regional capabilities and network of proxies still pose significant threats.

4. The Nuclear Threat Is Not Entirely Eliminated
Experts caution that while physical infrastructure has been destroyed, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and technical know-how remain. Some analysts believe Iran anticipated the strikes and may have relocated key assets. The IAEA and other observers note there is no clear evidence Iran was imminently weaponizing its program, and the potential for future rebuilds or covert activities cannot be discounted.

5. Attacking Nuclear Facilities Sets a Dangerous Precedent
The IAEA’s Director General reiterated that “nuclear facilities should never be attacked,” highlighting the risks of radiological contamination and the erosion of international norms. Such actions could encourage other states to pursue clandestine programs or justify preemptive strikes elsewhere.

In summary:
While the strikes may have delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions and removed an immediate proliferation risk, they have also heightened the potential for regional war, retaliatory attacks, and long-term instability. The world may have “breathed easier” for now, but the underlying issues—nuclear proliferation, regional rivalries, and the cycle of escalation—remain unresolved. The situation is not as unambiguously positive or safe as it might first appear.
 
While it’s understandable to view the recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a positive development from a nonproliferation standpoint, the situation is more complex than simply “neutral-to-good.” Here are several points to consider:

1. The Strikes Severely Damaged Iran’s Nuclear Infrastructure, but Risks Remain
It is true that major nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow were extensively damaged or “obliterated,” according to both U.S. and Israeli sources. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Esfahan complex, a key site, suffered repeated and extensive damage, though they also noted that most facilities hit contained little or no nuclear material, limiting immediate radiological risk. President Trump and Israeli officials declared the strikes a success, claiming Iran’s nuclear program is “no longer” operational.

2. The World Is Not Necessarily Safer—Retaliation and Escalation Risks Have Increased
While the strikes may have set back Iran’s ability to quickly develop nuclear weapons, they have also sharply raised regional tensions. Within hours, Iran launched a significant missile barrage at Israel, prompting air raid sirens and injuries in multiple locations. Iranian officials have vowed to defend their country and consider all U.S. citizens and military personnel in the region as legitimate targets. The risk of a broader conflict, including potential attacks on U.S. bases or interests in the Middle East, has increased, not decreased.

3. The Question of Iran’s Capabilities and Alliances Is More Nuanced
It’s inaccurate to suggest Iran has “no friends left.” Russia remains a strategic partner, with ongoing military and civilian nuclear cooperation, and Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Moscow for urgent talks with President Putin immediately after the strikes. Iran also retains influence through allied groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Shia militias, as well as the ability to disrupt key maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran’s direct missile reach to the U.S. mainland is limited, its regional capabilities and network of proxies still pose significant threats.

4. The Nuclear Threat Is Not Entirely Eliminated
Experts caution that while physical infrastructure has been destroyed, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and technical know-how remain. Some analysts believe Iran anticipated the strikes and may have relocated key assets. The IAEA and other observers note there is no clear evidence Iran was imminently weaponizing its program, and the potential for future rebuilds or covert activities cannot be discounted.

5. Attacking Nuclear Facilities Sets a Dangerous Precedent
The IAEA’s Director General reiterated that “nuclear facilities should never be attacked,” highlighting the risks of radiological contamination and the erosion of international norms. Such actions could encourage other states tpursue clandestine programs or justify preemptive strikes elsewhere.

In summary:
While the strikes may have delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions and removed an immediate proliferation risk, they have also heightened the potential for regional war, retaliatory attacks, and long-term instability. The world may have “breathed easier” for now, but the underlying issues—nuclear proliferation, regional rivalries, and the cycle of escalation—remain unresolved. The situation is not as unambiguously positive or safe as it might first appear.


I agree that we should be skeptics, we should consider everything that could go wrong but it's not time to panic.

1. Risks will always remain. But todays risks are a lot smaller than yesterdays. This is only the end of the millionth chapter in Middle East History, not the end of the story.
2. Trump senses that the strongest countries in the Middle East are ready to join the modern world, hence all the deal making on his recent trip to Saudi Arabia. This will create some amount of interdependence among the Arab Countries and Israel. That's the next chapter.
3. The world is definitely safer. We were within weeks of Hamas and it's proxies being able to destroy western civilization. I never subscribed to the worry about nuke tipped rockets. With an open border I was much more worried about nukes in knapsacks. We bought ourselves time. so far so good. Lets see if Trump can change the course of Iran's future.
4. Right, we don't know what Putin and the Ayhtollah are planning but Mossad and Trump probably do. So far Trump has done ok, there's no reason to panic now.
4. Once the genie is out of the bottle you can't put it back in. We haven't changed the fact that technology always gets easier and cheaper and more ubiquitous. We'll have to find a way to survive and thrive in that world.
5. Everything has risks, especially doing nothing. Israel took out the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007 and the world continued on.
 
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