Argentina is now number 3

[camberiu]

The downward spiral continues........


Colombia GDP overtakes Argentina’s, “a dream come true” says Finance minister

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/09/01...ina-s-a-dream-come-true-says-finance-minister

 

[expatinowncountry]

Just for your information, when you are working with a fraction where both the numerator and denominator depends on a common variable, you cannot change the variable in the denominator without changing the numerator. Since you come from a background in engineering... let say you have F(X)/X. If you change X in the denominator, F(.) would also change.

The people who did this back of the envelope calculation said... well... I will divide Argentine GDP in pesos by the black market exchange rate instead of the official one and therefore the GDP in dollars will be smaller WITHOUT taking into account that the Argentine GDP in Pesos (the numerator) also depends on the exchange rate you use as a large share of it is TRADABLE... so if you use the Black market exchange rate, you should also RE-ESTIMATE the GDP in pesos using that black market exchange rate.

So either, the Colombian newspaper published rubbish or we should be worry this guy will be the head of the IMF for Latin America.

Argentine GDP in nominal/PPP/or per capita terms is larger than Colombian as of today (even without INDEC number cooking).

The downward spiral continues........


Colombia GDP overtakes Argentina’s, “a dream come true” says Finance minister

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/09/01...ina-s-a-dream-come-true-says-finance-minister

 

[camberiu]

From FT, addind into the discussion.

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/08/31/colombia-v-argentina-gdp-bragging-rights/

 

[expatinowncountry]

I do agree with the conclusion of this article... Colombia -while not there yet- is catching fast. They got a lot of things right and they are ending 30 years of civil war. They have many natural resources and their population is somehow larger than the Argentine. And well... Argentine also has resources but at the same time they have the peronist party so that cancels out almost everything. If you were an investor, would you invest in Argentina or Colombia? I personally will choose Colombia.

On the other hand, I remember once I was in a high level meeting in Dubai where the Colombian ambassador made every single effort to point out that Colombia was not Argentina (and that was in 2009 when there were not all the crazy measures of the Argentine government in place) and that Emirates should choose Bogota over Buenos Aires for their new route. They chose BA, not sure why (maybe because of Rio connection?).

From FT, addind into the discussion.

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/08/31/colombia-v-argentina-gdp-bragging-rights/

 

[PhilinBSAS]

their population is somehow larger than the Argentine.

"Somehow" or typo for "Somewhat"?

Emirates should choose Bogota over Buenos Aires for their new route. They chose BA, not sure why (maybe because of Rio connection?).

Yes interesting why this investment decision at this time.

Publicity says .. Fly Emirates from Dubai to Buenos Aires and discover Argentina's most cosmopolitan city

doesnt tell us much!

Alternatively Ive read

http://www.routesonline.com/news/36...s-flights-to-buenos-aires-and-rio-de-janeiro/

Brazil has been part of the Emirates network since 2007 when it inaugurated flights to Sao Paulo and with the country playing host to both the 2014 FIFA Football World Cup and 2016 Olympics, traffic into the country is expected to soar over the coming decade.

“Both Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro are rightly renowned as world-class leisure destinations as well as important business and trading centres. Our research has shown that there is a high demand for these cities from across our network,” said His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline & Group.

Over the last few years, South America has experienced record-paced economic growth, even in the shadow of the global downturn of 2008. Brazil stands as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, thanks to its success in the petroleum sector, a young and active workforce and stability in urban growth. Trade between Brazil and the Middle East follows the trend: according to the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, exports to Arab countries totalled US$12.57 billion in 2010, representing an annual growth of 34 per cent, while imports ended the year with US$6.96 billion, an increase of 33 per cent compared to 2009.

Argentina has also experienced positive economic growth in 2010. Tourism, one of the country’s major economic drivers, is a good indicator. According to INDEC (Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses) there were 2.6 million foreign tourist arrivals at Buenos Aires airports in 2010, (an annual increase of 27 per cent). Government projections for international visitors for the 2010-2012 period are very optimistic with Asian markets expected to increase their current share of the tourism market.

So explanation is to do with Brazil effect, tourism (BsAs has more draw than Colombia) belief in INDEC statistics and oil?

I'd speculatively suggest the investment decision was influenced by BsAs having a stronger identity on the world stage for the time being at least and possibly since airlines look for two-way traffic Argentina's rich are more concentrated in their one recognisable "world city" than in Colombia? Bogota being approx half the size of Greater Buenos Aires.

I've not been to Bogota yet but is crime/safety perception worse than BsAs?

Happy to be informed by those who know Colombia well.

 

[nelaursen]

GINI for income distribution (CIA Factbook): Colombia 56.0; Arg. 35.0. Argentina is getting worse for sure in this index, but I personally would hesitate to use Colombia as the ideal LA model.

http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.e...="coefficient income mobility list argentina"

 

[John.St]

GINI for income distribution (CIA Factbook): Colombia 56.0; Arg. 35.0. Argentina is getting worse for sure in this index, but I personally would hesitate to use Colombia as the ideal LA model.

The GINI index must be used with caution.

Exaggerated to demonstrate problem:

If everybody in a country are equally poor, owing nothing (none-citizens living abroad do) and making e.g. 1 peso a day and starving, the GINI index is 0 (zero), a straight line rising from 0,0 to 100,100 at 45 degrees - perfect!

If everybody in a country are rich, 90% owns 80% of everything, lowest income US$ 200,000 but the top 10% own 20% of everything and have an income of US$ 20,000,000 each, the index shows ineaquality.