Blue 12.75 And Falling.........


Here it is:


There are also plans to sell 1B in dollar-linked bonds. You buy and sell them according to the official rate, but apparently it can be a big deal for importers.

Basically, the government has demonstrated lately that it is determined to take measures and this makes many people anxious. And only time will tell whether these measures will work or not.

Do you think the inflation problem is now resolved once and for all? :)


There are many headwinds if you like a blue closer to 15, 16 and beyond. The China currency swap, the bond sale, new fees on the contado con liqui to cool that market along with AFIP monitoring of those playing in that market beyond their means, optimism with the Vaca Muerta.

Wall Street seems to be smitten with Argentina and the prospects in 2015 and a new administration. Somehow this movie always has the same ending, but investors can't help themselves. This time it will be different. ahem.


French jurist

what is happening on that date?
Higher demand due to the vacations + the half "aguinaldo" (biannual bonus for employees) starts to get paid in december = some people quickly buy dollars.

Historically, there's always a spike in the second half of january, then it goes slightly down again before rising.


THEY are the ones that are letting people (who make over 7,000 pesos/ month) buy dollars at the official +20%, and of course everyone just buys and sells the dollars to make maybe ~1000 pesos extra! That's the gap they are trying to close? So stupid.


This Infobae article has some new information as to the current state of the blue dollar.

El secreto del "éxito" de las nuevas autoridades del Banco Central es impedir las operaciones de contado con liquidación. Cada tanto suspende a algún agente de Bolsa para recordarle lo inconveniente de transitar por este camino de triangular acciones, pesos y dólares.
- The secret to the success of the new Central bank authorities is impeding the contado con liqui operations. Every now and again they suspend a stockbroker (arbolito?) to remind them of the inconvenience of dealing in triangular transactions, pesos and dollars.

Lo cierto es que el "contado con liqui", como llaman en la jerga a la operación de comprar acciones en Buenos Aires en pesos y vender los certificados de posesión de esos papeles en Nueva York en dólares, cerró a 12,61 pesos y ya tiene el mismo valor que el billete. Por supuesto, la ausencia de los operadores hizo que la Bolsa negociara tan solo 164 millones de pesos y el índice de las acciones líderes cayera 1,84 por ciento.
- What is certain is that the "contado con liqui", which is the act of buying shares in Buenos Aires in pesos and selling certificates of possession of these shares in New York in dollars, closed at 12.61 pesos and already has the same value as the dollar bill. Of course, the absence of the brokers means the stock will only sell for 164 million pesos and the index of leading shares fell 1.84 percent.

And apparently foreign currency reserves are increasing, even with paying imported energy bills.


The sell is 12, buy is higher, prob closer to 12.7, and if it is not favourable they may not buy.

Peso slaves are buying at around 10.5 at the minute, official + 20% retention (to be returned at end of yr if your accounts are straight...dont believe the hype, it's very achievable) Most people are using 10 as a reference point, buying at that rate, walking out the door to the street, selling and returning back to lodge 80% in their accounts and trouser the 20.

This is the gap "they" are trying to close, although they'll need to work hard to keep up with the liquidation of aguinaldos into dollars in dec and the holiday season frenzy.

Not sure if I would be confident enough to make any long term predictions as Argentina has a way of making fools of the brave.
Welcome back Magic Gonzalez. Your presence has been missed in these hallowed portals.


The news media here is ridiculous. One day, the controls cause the price to rise. On other days, they cause it to fall. The controls do not matter. It's how people react to them. If there are controls and people can buy dollars, they might be more incentivized to buy because of the controls. However, if there are controls and you don't have a peso to spend, it's clearly impossible to buy dollars, controls or no controls.

So, it's pure supply and demand.

My guess:

I believe the situation with the holdouts had a lot to do with it. I think there was a lot of fear that Argentina would have no choice but to pay, and that would imply a megadevaluation as it would open the flood gates to some $15 billion being paid at some point. With that possibility, there was probably a lot of speculation, and that speculation fueled demand to some extent, as well as the price that brokers published. If you're buying and selling dollars, the last thing you want to have is a ton of pesos on hand in an environment where the dollar reserves could fall 3 billion from one day to the next, and then 12 billion more after that (to pay those who accepted the canje de deuda).

But evidently, the price got too high for those to buy dollars. So, the price has to fall to incentivize those with pesos to buy dollars, and to disincentivize those with dollars from selling them.