Can Milei evolve from disruptor to political leader?

[MilHojas]

Can Argentina’s Javier Milei evolve from disruptor to political leader?

Two and a half years after Milei came to power and shook up Argentina’s political system, the novelty might be wearing off.

www.chathamhouse.org

 

[Ries]

No.

 

[Che1990]

No. Milei is effective when attacking, he is a good disruptor, and a strong performer - but he is not a statesman and lacks pragmatism.

His performance in the election campaign will be totally different now he has to defend rather than attack.

The biggest thing going for him is the lack of credible opposition right now.

 

[elhombresinnombre]

I suspect it will all depend on how much credibility and influence The Man In The White House still retains at the time. He's already started on the decent into lameduckery that befalls all second term presidents at this point in the election cycle.

 

[SlowWalker]

I think he can change. Needs to change the rhetoric. Will be tough based on his persona for the last few years but absolutely possible.

 

[Rich One]

Fans, attending the Soccer Cup events in the USA, were interviewed live those that are longtime US residents expressed their firm resolution to vote for Milei for reelection ...!

 

[FrankPintor]

Fans, attending the Soccer Cup events in the USA, were interviewed live those that are longtime US residents expressed their firm resolution to vote for Milei for reelection ...!

This is an interesting point... I'm reading that the recent Peruvian elections were decided for Keiko (the dictator Fujimori's daughter) by Peruvian emigtants / expats in Chile. In a close election, it could be the same here.

My country, Ireland, doesn't allow expat / emigrant voting. Even I'm excluded, though I was born on the island and have been a citizen all my life. But maybe it's a small sacrifice to avoid being swamped by 20 million or so often nutcases in North America who claim Irish descendency.

 

[Ries]

Most of the Argentines in the USA have at the very least green cards, but mainly dual citizenship.
So, sure, a few of them may actually vote in Argentine elections.
But the conservative ones I have met are largely voting up there, not down here.
the internet says while florida has the largest percentage, at about 55,000 people, there are large argentine populations in NYC, LA, Texas and New Jersey.
I dont think you can really count on them all being Milei supporters, but all up, its maybe 300,000 people, and how many of those would voter?
I have met Argentines, in the USA, who are there because they fled the dictatorship. A fair amount of them, often college professors, or other well educated professionals.
Seems like they would be the anti-Milei voting bloc.

I think the sound bites are mostly in Miami, and mostly pretty conservative, well off, expat Argentines. Not necessarily a majority, but, even then, probalby not enough to swing the election.
The numbers I can see for neighboring countries are much lower- 20,000 to 30,000 in Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay and Chile.
There were around 26 million votes in the election Milei won, so I cant see how, if every single US Argentine voted for him, it would be a significant enough quantity to swing an election. He won by about 3 million votes last time. 10% of that, assuming every single US Argentine is a gorilla, would probably not be enough.

 

[Alby]

The dynamic duo, working in tandem again, this time to wish numbers down rather than up.

 

[FrankPintor]

Most of the Argentines in the USA have at the very least green cards, but mainly dual citizenship.
So, sure, a few of them may actually vote in Argentine elections.
But the conservative ones I have met are largely voting up there, not down here.
the internet says while florida has the largest percentage, at about 55,000 people, there are large argentine populations in NYC, LA, Texas and New Jersey.
I dont think you can really count on them all being Milei supporters, but all up, its maybe 300,000 people, and how many of those would voter?
I have met Argentines, in the USA, who are there because they fled the dictatorship. A fair amount of them, often college professors, or other well educated professionals.
Seems like they would be the anti-Milei voting bloc.

I think the sound bites are mostly in Miami, and mostly pretty conservative, well off, expat Argentines. Not necessarily a majority, but, even then, probalby not enough to swing the election.
The numbers I can see for neighboring countries are much lower- 20,000 to 30,000 in Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay and Chile.
There were around 26 million votes in the election Milei won, so I cant see how, if every single US Argentine voted for him, it would be a significant enough quantity to swing an election. He won by about 3 million votes last time. 10% of that, assuming every single US Argentine is a gorilla, would probably not be enough.

It seems like there are almost 500 thousand Argentinians with the right to vote, living outside Argentina.

About 100 thousand in the US, I believe.

This article shows how they voted last time around:

Argentinos en el exterior: los resultados del balotaje en cada país

Un total de 435.556 son las personas argentinas que residen en el exterior y que estuvieron habilitadas para sufragar.

www.ellitoral.com

And it does seem like most of them went for Milei.

To be sure, turnout seems to have been low, maybe 5% in Madrid, but with a polarised, riled-up (something Milei does very well) electorate, and a close-run contest (like the Peru election I mentioned), there is the potential for an election to be decided outside Argentina.