Can Milei evolve from disruptor to political leader?

[Che1990]

It seems like there are almost 500 thousand Argentinians with the right to vote, living outside Argentina.

About 100 thousand in the US, I believe.

This article shows how they voted last time around:

Argentinos en el exterior: los resultados del balotaje en cada país

Un total de 435.556 son las personas argentinas que residen en el exterior y que estuvieron habilitadas para sufragar.

www.ellitoral.com

And it does seem like most of them went for Milei.

To be sure, turnout seems to have been low, maybe 5% in Madrid, but with a polarised, riled-up (something Milei does very well) electorate, and a close-run contest (like the Peru election I mentioned), there is the potential for an election to be decided outside Argentina.

I think it’ll be to the wire if Peru and Colombia were anything to go by. It’s not exactly libertad for everyone here yet is it. The salaries did fly in dollars as he promised, but they tanked in pesos.

 

[Alby]

It's certainly possible. Elections around here do seem to be being decided by small margins. Macri's victory in 2015 was fairly narrow in the end. Colombia on Sunday. Lula didn't win by that much in an election of 120 million votes. The last three Peruvian elections have each been decided by around 40,000 (in elections where around 18 million people vote), twice against Fujimori, this time in her favor. It was actually Argentina, more so than Chile, that helped tilt the result: a similar number of votes (30,000ish) in each country, but here they went heavily for Fujimori (I was an observer at the Recoleta polling station volunteering for an NGO), but also a high level of abstention. In Chile, the vote split almost 50/50. It was the vote in the US that really made the difference.