Default?

Weyland

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"Speaking from Buenos Aires, Jimena Blanco, head of Latin America at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC via telephone that the risk consultancy had assigned a 77% probability that Argentina would default before the end of the year."


"El economista que anticipó la última crisis global advirtió que la Argentina está más cerca de caer en un “default total” de su deuda por la falta de un plan económico.
En un paper que dio a conocer en las últimas horas, Nouriel Roubini, conocido como el “Doctor Desastre” por haber anticipado la crisis 2007-2009, afirmó que “el riesgo de un default total está creciendo”."
 

Stevied

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I'm usually very optimistic about Argentina, but I believe a default is inevitable. It's going to be a very difficult time for people living in Argentina - even if you have dollar based income. I think this will be worse than the 2001 crisis, because the government have less levers to pull to mitigate this one. Based on lessons learned from navigating the last crisis, I would suggest people think about any needs that they have that involve imported goods. For example, my wife's sister is in need of a new air conditioner, and a new refrigerator. These are purchases that they've been putting off - but are now going to accelerate because the expectation is that, after a default, imported goods (which are already quite expensive) are going to get many times more expensive, or even impossible to find. Stockpiling expensive medications are another strategy. While it seems extreme, my wife (she's the Argentine) tells me that it is even within the realm of possibility that the government would order all safe deposit boxes opened, and force exchange of stockpiled dollars. I wish I could be more optimistic, but don't see any way the government will avoid a default. To negotiate a haircut or debt relief, the government would have to (a) be transparent on their budget; and (b) agree to a balanced budget and austerity - neither of which this government will do.
 

jblaze5779

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While it seems extreme, my wife (she's the Argentine) tells me that it is even within the realm of possibility that the government would order all safe deposit boxes opened, and force exchange of stockpiled dollars.

possibility.... they've already done it once....
 

Rich One

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Fiscal Austerity is out of the question if they want to have success in the -midterm elections 2021. Not to speak of the 2023 Presidential. The printing press will be busy to continue the Handouts , plans. If inflation continues to raise and being under default . The prospects are grim.
 

Joglide

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There is a respectable case for arguing that staunchly pro-business governments are usually in power when overtaken by the crisis, often engendered by their own policies, and it is left-leaning governments which then are elected to pick up the pieces and deal with the fall-out, including taking some of the flak from their own supporters as they search for some kind of exit from a massive overhang of debt and incompetence. Macrismo gambled on misconceived assumptions and projections which has left the country in a perilous economic position. Alberto F has spent a lot of time in foreign diplomacy to get IMF bargaining support, so a default may be Plan B but doesn't look like Plan A. The IMF saw the books when Macri was in power and still loaned him unrealistic amounts of money. I think this government will attempt some cuts but clearly are on thin ice with their supporters.
 

Iznogud

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possibility.... they've already done it once....
Can you please tell me when? I´ve heard about the safe opening threat all my life but have never heard of it ever happening.

Who keeps a bank safety box? It´s not for everybody, there are quite few of them, small and expensive in the long run, all things considered. Not practical in most cases.

What valuables to store in such small boxes and where to liquidate them once SHTF and cash is self destroying?

Who trusts the banks that much, with such a possibility in the first place and the fact that banks already closed their doors and left everybody holding their breaths back in 2001?

IMO, bank safety deposit boxes are a thing of the past for most, like the mattress or piggy bank.

Opening them would likely piss off the wrong people and certainly would not bring any significant amount of profit for the ones doing it.


Iz
 

mulderfox

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Can you please tell me when? I´ve heard about the safe opening threat all my life but have never heard of it ever happening.

Who keeps a bank safety box? It´s not for everybody, there are quite few of them, small and expensive in the long run, all things considered. Not practical in most cases.

What valuables to store in such small boxes and where to liquidate them once SHTF and cash is self destroying?

Who trusts the banks that much, with such a possibility in the first place and the fact that banks already closed their doors and left everybody holding their breaths back in 2001?

IMO, bank safety deposit boxes are a thing of the past for most, like the mattress or piggy bank.

Opening them would likely piss off the wrong people and certainly would not bring any significant amount of profit for the ones doing it.


Iz
default seems around the corner!!

argentina like many countries has some urban legends. the white van thing is one "la combi blanca" goes something like a real life boogie man kidnaps children and pretty girls, if you ask someone knows someone that saw it happen.
well now the economy of the country is so f$%& up that another legend (but strong only among foreigners) says deposit boxes were opened during 2001 and all dollars changed to pesos and put back into the box!. that's bullshit! but as i said someone knows someone that saw it happen!. some argentines like to tell this thing about boxes to foreigners not sure why, may be just to scare them but they usually only do it when few argentines are around.
if you think about it is impossible to do it in any orderly manner. i mean you send some workers from the government and a police officer to the bank, they open a box, easy so far, finding.. say 5k dollars and a rolex. the owner is not there to defend the property. why wouldn't they take all the money and split it between them?? and tell to goverment that box was empty? may be not all, but why not 3k? or just change all the money to pesos and steal the rolex? the boxes have no official inventory so there is no telling what you will find. say you find a pistol and bullets what do you do? leave it there? take it away? ask the owner to present proper paperwork for it? you see what i mean?.
the story is bullshit but people will remain afraid of the white van for ever!!


there are 2 things no government has done (yet): expropiate flats and open security boxes!
 
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