Devaluation

[Redbeanz]

With Brasil's devaluation of the Real, wil Argentina follow its largest trading partner and devalue the peso?

 

[camberiu]

The Brazilian devaluation of the Real is not an intentional government act. It is happening because investors are dumping their Reais and buying dollars. The imminent downgrade of the Brazilian debt and the deterioration of the government finances are the main drivers of this devaluation.

 

[Rich One]

With Brasil's devaluation of the Real, wil Argentina follow its largest trading partner and devalue the peso?

The peso Official devaluation is 15 % p.a. If Scioli wins the Paso by a large margin , Blue Dollar Devaluation is imminent..

 

[Joe]

This is one of the symptoms of living in Argentina for a long time. The belief that the mandarins in the government turn a couple of dials to control the exchange rate.

 

[ElQueso]

I just had a conversation today with someone with some pretty good contacts. According to him, the news is that after the August primaries, and assuming Scioli does well as expected, the peso will be devalued somewhat more than the .05 per week or so it has been going. Then there is a debt payment, I believe in October(?) that is going to eat up a bunch of reserves (and not this pie-in-the-sky $30B+ number) which will make the dollar even more valuable. Talk is around 20-1 by the end of the year. I don't know, personally, if it would get that high but how lovely if it did.

Admittedly, I was surprised this year at the vehemence with which Cristina attacked the blue dollar, but I don't think we'll see devaluation of the dollar blue any time soon. Although I could be wrong, I sure hope not.

 

[Churchill]

After the peso rose to over 15 last week, a bunch of economists came out and said that the blue was overvalued and a truer figure would be around 13 (approx 40% diff between the official and blue). I would also love to see a rate of around 20 but I can't see that happening unless Scioli wins by a large margin.

 

[Gringoboy]

20 might be OK if you want to sell dollars, but not if you earn in pesos.
Surely this administration is going to leave any devaluation to their successors since the very word devaluation doesn't seem to be in their vocabulary.

 

[Rich One]

After the peso rose to over 15 last week, a bunch of economists came out and said that the blue was overvalued and a truer figure would be around 13 (approx 40% diff between the official and blue). I would also love to see a rate of around 20 but I can't see that happening unless Scioli wins by a large margin.

So a good strategy would be for the K to vote for Macri in the Paso to keep the Blue Steady....

 

[ElQueso]

20 might be OK if you want to sell dollars, but not if you earn in pesos.
Surely this administration is going to leave any devaluation to their successors since the very word devaluation doesn't seem to be in their vocabulary.

Nothing is good if you earn in pesos, right now. But the actual value of the peso is what it is.

Considering that in Uruguay it's trading for around 17, in Paraguay 16.5, etc - 13 is no kind of real value.

 

[Ceviche]

lets see what happens. I am very worried.