Does anyone else feel there might be a peso collapse this year?

Joddson said:
Just as a point of monitoring the news on this; seems like the papers are still tracking the current IMF deal to include lifting the cepo.

www.batimes.com.ar

Argentina and the IMF – scenarios for a possible new agreement

Milei government and IMF continue to fine-tune a future agreement which is likely to include a remittance of some US$11 billion to bolster Central Bank coffers, allowing Argentina to remove the ‘cepo’ currency and capital controls.
www.batimes.com.ar www.batimes.com.ar

That said, if anyone can explain the whole "dirty float" exchange rate concept mentioned in this article, I'd appreciate it.
Click to expand...
In a dirty float, a currency is allowed to move, but only in a certain range, determined by the central bank. If it goes above or below that range, the bank buys or sells the currency to bring it back in to the range. Over time, the range is moved. When the currency stays in the middle of the range for a time, it is lifted and a true float is allowed.
It can work (see some former Soviet republics after the fall of the Soviet Union). It can also be a disaster if the central bank doesn't have enough foreign reserves to defend it (see the Asian Contagion).

The problem is Argentina doesn't have sufficient USD reserves to do this right now.
 
daveholman said:
In a dirty float, a currency is allowed to move, but only in a certain range, determined by the central bank. If it goes above or below that range, the bank buys or sells the currency to bring it back in to the range. Over time, the range is moved. When the currency stays in the middle of the range for a time, it is lifted and a true float is allowed.
It can work (see some former Soviet republics after the fall of the Soviet Union). It can also be a disaster if the central bank doesn't have enough foreign reserves to defend it (see the Asian Contagion).

The problem is Argentina doesn't have sufficient USD reserves to do this right now.
Click to expand...
Aha, that makes more sense as to why there seems to be so much hesitancy around lifting the controls even with IMF cash.
Was seeing a couple articles about how the current deal in talks wouldn't really cover much past standing deficit. I can see the worry that a dirty float would only last half a year or so before it breaks the bank,

Pure speculation; maybe they'll give it a go timed for the October elections. While there is still enough surplus to hold the float and talk it up as party a campaign point (IMF contingent). Then endure the back-blast after elections.
 
retiredbanker said:
1300 today. How much higher?
Click to expand...
It looks to me like this is just a preliminary fear jump with the impending IMF agreement terms.
I don't see how it won't bump up plenty more when the policy removals go into effect.

Does anyone else feel like there is a weird sense of deception around it though? I keep seeing articles with officials saying the changes to exchange rates won't have an impact on the people, and the IMF isn't asking for (official) devaluation.

I don't get how statements like that can be true if the exchange policies/cepo are changed. Feels like "remain calm and don't panic" style lies to keep the marked calm.

My guess is an eventual dam breaking after so much effort to keep the exchanges stable and suppressed.
 
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