Dollar and Inflation Rate Predictions End 2019

[steveinbsas]

Remember Professor Samuelson ,( Nobel Prize), his predictions on the economy, in Time Magazine (circa 1968) were always wrong, so he decided to publish instead funny remarks...

Coming much closer to the present (Nov, 9, 2016), Paul Krugman (Nobel Prize), made the following prediction:

"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight." Paul Krugman of the New York Times the day after the election.

There are additional not-so-spot-on economic predictions after Trump was elected in this article:

https://www.investors.com/politics/...oming-the-greatest-false-predictions-of-2017/

 

[Ries]

Trump loves to hire really good predictorators, too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/business/larry-kudlows-not-so-on-the-money-predictions.html

interesting that Trump has hired a bunch of deficit hawks, and hard money economists, and then they all change their tune to match his high deficit, low interest rate desires.

 

[expat0tree]

Trump has hired a bunch of deficit hawks

Trump is not wrong to sound an alarm on unsustainable levels of deficit but his aggressive tactics aren't solving the problem, the money raised for the wall could be put into R&D.

 

[Ries]

Trump is not wrong to sound an alarm on unsustainable levels of deficit but his aggressive tactics aren't solving the problem, the money raised for the wall could be put into R&D.

Trump is not sounding an alarm- he is doing the exact opposite- he is adding Trillions to the debt, and increasing the deficit towards a Trillion as well.
Trump may have, once or twice, complained about the deficit, but he also has said he wants more borrowing and lower interest rates and loose money. Anything Trump has said, he is also on record as opposing, and, usually having 2 or 3 other random opinions that contradict both pro and con.
But the end result is clear, in dollars and cents- Trump has added enormously to the deficit, and his tax cuts have cut revenue by large amounts as well.
He clearly does not care about deficit or debt.

 

[bigbadwolf]

What's the "blue rate" for the Argentine peso right now? I'm having a spot of bother finding an online quote.

 

[camel]

What's the "blue rate" for the Argentine peso right now? I'm having a spot of bother finding an online quote.

https://www.ambito.com/contenidos/dolar.html

 

[Ries]

There really isnt much of a blue rate right now. Cuevas are still faster, easier, and usually about the same rate as banks, however.

 

[expat0tree]

2.8% increase in inflation correspond to first 15 days of February alone, this obviously has nothing to do with lowering of the interest rates yet because those usually affect the inflation some months later, this means that the inflation is expected to rise even more in the coming months but don't expect the official inflation number to reflect that before the elections. The article below demonstrates the effects of the rising inflation on food prices:

https://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=38899&SEO=inflation-still-hitting-argentina

 

[Joglide]

i don't know why they even bother issuing predictions here. the only certainty is uncertainty.

Agree with the sceptics here though to be fair everyone operates on expectations, if only that the sun will rise tomorrow. Within certain bounds the pessimism of expat0tree sounds reasonable if Bearish, but in respect of Argentina everyone seems pretty much agreed that inflation will not fall below 25% per annum in next year, and no one is predicting strong growth in Argentina or even world economy for the next year. If either of these basic assumptions prove to be wrong then we're all pretty much wrong together. The elephant in the Casa Rosada is that of external debt which is pretty sensational and two opposing expectations seem to be plausible and will probably both be correct: 1. that the debt is not sustainable in the medium term, so some kind of adjustment will be needed, 2. Argentina is unlikely to be left without IMF support in the short to medium term if it agrees to even medium austerity measures. Slow pain is more likely to be seen as effective - inflicted over an extended period - than any short sharp shocks that threaten political we well as economic meltdown.

 

[Ries]

the other elephant I see is NO program to either increase exports or employment. Or to raise salaries, to match inflation, for that rate.
The purpose of a government, and the reason countries exist, is not just to pay off ill considered borrowing. Neither Austerity, nor Pain, actually help anybody. Neither even assures debt repayment.
There needs to be an active program to make things better.
Zero programs have been proposed.