El País: Peru leads Argentina in the race to be the next Venezuela

[Renzi]

"To understand this drop, we must go back to the strict measures to restrict mobility in the second quarter," says Pamela Ramos, an analyst at Oxford Economics. “In the first quarter, GDP was already falling, but in the next it fell by 30%, the largest decline of all emerging economies. It was a total disaster.”

El virus condena a Perú a la mayor recesión de América Latina en 2020 tras Venezuela

El PIB se hundirá este año casi un 14% según el FMI, superando con creces el colapso de 1989

elpais.com

 

[Ceviche]

"To understand this drop, we must go back to the strict measures to restrict mobility in the second quarter," says Pamela Ramos, an analyst at Oxford Economics. “In the first quarter, GDP was already falling, but in the next it fell by 30%, the largest decline of all emerging economies. It was a total disaster.”

El virus condena a Perú a la mayor recesión de América Latina en 2020 tras Venezuela

El PIB se hundirá este año casi un 14% según el FMI, superando con creces el colapso de 1989

elpais.com

Like I said in a different post, most posters here talk sitting in their drawing rooms with very low recent traveling experience. They have zero idea whats actually happening on the ground. All they do is read mainstream newspapers or talk basis what they saw when visiting some country 10 years ago.

 

[semigoodlookin]

Two nations in a race to become the next Venezuela... it's not exactly a race you'd want to be in whether winning or losing. So, both Peru and Argentina are doing terribly it seems.

 

[antipodean]

I’m not sure it leads the “race” at all nor does the article match the headline of this thread.

Sure Peru has a major drop in its economy caused by near paralysis and a prolonged lock down, that is the snap shot of today, but it also has a structure that can support a rapid rebound and more importantly, access to capital. It also has a stable currency despite this and subsidies much more generous (US$200+) than Argentina’s ARS10k (US$75).

“Y la recuperación, ya iniciada, está siendo incluso más rápida que en México o Argentina pese a haber sufrido un golpe mucho mayor entre abril y junio.״

Argentina on the other hand has a structure that limits its rebound with very difficult access to capital.
Easy to think that Argentina is all roses and caviar while living in the CABA expat bubble but remember that Argentina is living in a frozen reality, once the breaks comes off the real impact of “pending” unemployment and inflation will be felt. Meanwhile all you need to do is spend time on the streets now to see there are more cartoneros on the beat and more people including children begging for money or selling tissues than same time last year.

Let’s check in on this in a year’s time to see who the unfortunate winner is/ was.

 

[Alby]

I am usually quite optimistic about Perú, but not so now. The problem is going to be political instability in the lead up to and following next year's elections (if they are even held). The next Congress is likely to be even worse than the current one, which is terrible and even worse than the dissolved one it replaced (which was merely awful). It will be atomized, populist, filled with crooks put there in service of interests threatened by recent reforms and advances against corruption, and it will censure ministers constantly, meaning continued massive turnover at the head of key government departments. The leading candidate for President is a young ex footballer with little experience and apparently little knowledge. The best candidate (and who could have brought with him a sizeable number of seats in parliament) recently withdraw. It's a depressing outlook. Almost as depressing as Argentina's.

 

[Dougie]

Ceviche , do you think Argentina will have more growth over the next 10 years than Peru? If so, why? It would be nice if you could share your insights, instead of just telling everyone they know nothing and you have all the on the ground knowledge.

From my experience in both countries and having worked in both, I see a structure a lot more conducive to growth in Peru. However, I know I don't have complete information from my own personal experiences and from what I read, so I would love to hear some of your insights especially in regards to how you see Argentina growing over the next decade. I'm open to changing my mind.