El Pico - how is it determined

[on the brink]

I keep reading about "El Pico", but don't know how it is determined. The date keeps changing, pushed forward again and again.

Can anyone explain how it works? I'd really like to understand.

 

[Blueish]

Inflection point - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[FrankPintor]

They're looking for the R number to be less than 1. When the R number is less than 1, you have fewer new cases tomorrow than you have today, because each new case is infecting fewer than one other person on average. Explanation and background here: https://www.infobae.com/politica/20...na-tendra-una-fecha-de-finalizacion-concreta/

 

[Somewhereinba]

All this obsession with the R number - all bullshit. Shit data in = shit data out. They have no real idea how many people are infected because their testing system is also complete shit and unreliable.

 

[antipodean]

My guess: A time of health, prosperity and unicorns that brings with it a brighter future for the todxs. So close yet so far.

 

[on the brink]

Thanks for the explanations.

If I get it right, the pico will have been reached when there are the same, or fewer number of cases on ten consecutive days.

But for that, an accurate count of infected people is needed. With so little testing done, how can we know?

 

[MercyRego]

Something interesting to be considered when it comes to statistics, numbers, rates...

The American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) from the American Public Health Association (APHA) publications

American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) from the American Public Health Association (APHA)

ajph.aphapublications.org

 

[Rich One]

The R number is a political Tool , some say the worst is ahead--! brace for the crush.. but less violent due to AF's intervention..? Will see

 

[on the brink]

I saw a chart showing that the peak will be the last week in August. Horrors....!

 

[sts7049]