Fear Of Argentina

[camberiu]

Recent declassified document from the time of the military rule in Brazil (1964-1985) show how concerned the Brazilian generals were back then, in regards of the intentions of Argentina. This article (in Portuguese) describes how the then ruler of Brazil, General Ernesto Geisel, back in 1974, directed that the country was to begin work on building the capabilities of producing a nuclear weapon, out of fear that Argentina would be next in developing such a device. Geisel's fears were justified as in 1983 Argentina did admit that it had a secret nuclear weapons program. The program was dismantled right after the end of the military rule. Brazil maintained its secret nuclear weapons program until 1990, when it signed the NPT and completely scrapped the whole thing.

 

[mc kenna]

Not only Brazil,,back in 78 ,Chile was only hours away from being overran by Argentine forces over the beagle conflict.All forces were at the border and thou Chile talked tough they knew they couldn't hold an all out invasion at that time.The conflict was defused at that time by some bishop or montsenior from the catholic church sent by the pope.That's one of the reasons why Chile helped the UK in the fight for the Falklands or Malvinas,they were affraid if Argentina were to win that war they were next!
As far as nuclear programs i think the first one was under Peron's first term,however the nuclear powers at the time wouldn't allow it so in 55 he was kicked out.He did managed to get the first South American production of combat airplanes jet powered same as the first generation migs or our 'Murican sabres.After he was gone,,pressure from the powers that be had that project scrapped too.

 

[camberiu]

"[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]The conflict was defused at that time by some bishop or montsenior from the catholic church sent by the pope."[/background]

The conflict was defused at that time by some bishop or montsenior from the catholic church sent by the pope.

Actually was the pope himself who threatened to excommunicate both Pinochet and Videla if war broke out. But yes, the fear of Argentina at the time was shared by all the bordering countries. Argentina was seen as a militaristic, expansionist and a "racial supremacist" power and everyone was scared of them.
You are right when you say that it was not just Brazil that was afraid of Argentina back then, but pretty much all neighboring countries. The difference is that Brazil was the only one that could do something about, although at great expense to a country that at the time was poor and underdeveloped when compared with Argentina.
EMBRAER for example, was created as a response to the Argentinian military aerospace complex. Brazil spent money and resources that it did not have in order to built weapons and technology to try to keep Argentina at bay. And although the economic/industrial/military gap between Brazil and Argentina had been closing since the 1930s, it was only in the late 1970s that both countries were at parity. I think it was the arrival in the early 80s of the Brazilian designed EMBRAER A-1 fighter-bomber, a plane designed and built with for the purpose of targeting and destroying Argentinian industrial assets for Cordoba to Buenos Aires, that marked the true shift in the balance of technological/industrial prowess in Latin America and solidified Brazil's position and the industrial/technological leader in the region. That, combined with the Argentinian defeat on the Falklands that dispelled the fears towards Argentina in the region.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Not only Brazil,,back in 78 ,Chile was only hours away from being overran by Argentine forces over the beagle conflict.All forces were at the border and thou Chile talked tough they knew they couldn't hold an all out invasion at that time.The conflict was defused at that time by some bishop or montsenior from the catholic church sent by the pope.That's one of the reasons why Chile helped the UK in the fight for the Falklands or Malvinas,they were affraid if Argentina were to win that war they were next!
As far as nuclear programs i think the first one was under Peron's first term,however the nuclear powers at the time wouldn't allow it so in 55 he was kicked out.He did managed to get the first South American production of combat airplanes jet powered same as the first generation migs or our 'Murican sabres.After he was gone,,pressure from the powers that be had that project scrapped too.

The Chilean military was, and still is, far superior to Argentina's - Pinochet's coup was exceptional in its history, and they still consider themselves professionals. Because of its geography, though, Chile is a difficult country to defend and, if Argentina had attacked there could have been huge civilian casualties on both sides.

 

[cbonanni]

I have heard from Brasilians , that had Argentina invaded Brasil instead of the Falklands , that the Brasilian military had only enough ammunition to fight for one week.

No wonder they were afraid.

 

[mc kenna]

The Chilean military was, and still is, far superior to Argentina's - Pinochet's coup was exceptional in its history, and they still consider themselves professionals. Because of its geography, though, Chile is a difficult country to defend and, if Argentina had attacked there could have been huge civilian casualties on both sides.

No doubt that the Chileans think they could take on Argentina,maybe today.But back in 78 the invasion and massacre of Chile would have lasted days maybe a week or two,as far as civilian casualties,imagine that Argentine military at that time were killing their own at wholesale,what makes you think that they would care about Chilean civilians?
I don't know about pinochet being exceptional or his coup being exceptional .He was another sell out puppet to the CIA and the plan condor.in short an exceptional piece of crap same as the ones here at that time.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

No doubt that the Chileans think they could take on Argentina,maybe today.But back in 78 the invasion and massacre of Chile would have lasted days maybe a week or two,as far as civilian casualties,imagine that Argentine military at that time were killing their own at wholesale,what makes you think that they would care about Chilean civilians?
I don't know about pinochet being exceptional or his coup being exceptional .He was another sell out puppet to the CIA and the plan condor.in short an exceptional piece of crap same as the ones here at that time.

Of course the Argentines wouldn't have cared about Chilean civilians, but the Chilean military was far better trained and cohesive, so the Argentines wouldn't have had much time to simply slaughter. But there probably would have been bombing of cities such as Punta Arenas, Mendoza, Bariloche, etc. Interestingly, when I crossed the border from Bariloche to Osorno in early 1979, there were still conspicuous Argentine foxholes and bunkers, but the Chileans had dismantled all theirs.

 

[camberiu]

I have heard from Brasilians , that had Argentina invaded Brasil instead of the Falklands , that the Brasilian military had only enough ammunition to fight for one week.

No wonder they were afraid.

You know what is funny? I heard this story about the low ammunition since I was a little kid and I always assumed it was some urban legend or some BS story. I mean, how could an army have enough ammunition for just one week? However, as I grew older and studied more about the geo-political tensions between Brazil and Argentina during the 20th century, I found that that this tale was actually true, but not quite as most Brazilians understand it. Let me explain:

War is not a binary thing, where you are either at peace or at an all-out conflict. Wars have degrees of intensity. In the case of Brazil and Argentina, the Brazilian military was concerned about and constantly simulating conflicts at different levels of intensity, from small border skirmishes involving a few soldiers exchanging small arms fire to a full scale conflict, and everything in between. The worst case scenario imagined by the Brazilian military was called "War Scenario Delta" in which both countries would be fully mobilized and fighting an all out conflict with a "take no prisoners, there can be only one" type of attitude. It would be the case of the entire Brazilian army clashing with the entire Argentinian army at the border. A full scale conflict akin of something out of the Eastern front during World War II. For THAT particular case, on a conflict of that scale, the Brazilian military had ordinance to fight for about a week. Would the Argentinian military have enough ordinance stock piled to fight a battle of that scale for much longer than a week? I honestly don't know, but I have my doubts.
But the interesting thing was the Brazilian military rationale for that. You see, conflicts usually don't go from peace to "War Scenario Delta" overnight. There is usually a gradual escalation of tensions that happen over time. Also, building up a large inventory of ammunition upfront for a conflict that may or may not happen is expensive, specially during a period of economic oil crisis, like the 70s. Also, at the time, Brazil was already fully self sufficient on almost all types of ordinance used by its military. Local companies like CBC, IMBEL and AVIBRAS produced domestically everything from small arms ordinance to grenades, tank shells, mortar rounds, rockets and bombs. So the idea was to keep enough reserve of ordinance of small to medium scale conflicts, and procure more from the domestic manufacturers if the tensions with Argentina escalate enough to warrant such acquisitions.

 

[camberiu]

Of course the Argentines wouldn't have cared about Chilean civilians, but the Chilean military was far better trained and cohesive,

I think this is arguable, but in reality it does not matter who had the better military. Back in 1978, the general PERCEPTION, both in Brazil and Chile was that the Argentinean military was on a league of its own. The perception was that their mostly white military was much better educated, better trained, more disciplined and more intelligent than the "brown monkeys" (that is how they referred to the rest of us back then). People imagined the Argentinian military to be the Wehrmacht of South America. So, I am sure that during the 1978 crisis, most Chileans were shitting bricks at the prospect of facing the "master race of South America" in combat.
It was only after the 1982 war that the myth was dispelled. The poor planning, the half-ass improvisations, the knee jerk reactions, the lack of coordination between the air force, navy and army served to show the rest of South America that the Argentinian military was not the "the Wehrmacht of South America". They were just a bunch of uniformed "brown monkeys" that someone painted white.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

I think this is arguable, but in reality it does not matter who had the better military. Back in 1978, the general PERCEPTION, both in Brazil and Chile was that the Argentinean military was on a league of its own. The perception was that their mostly white military was much better educated, better trained, more disciplined and more intelligent than the "brown monkeys" (that is how they referred to the rest of us back then). People imagined the Argentinian military to be the Wehrmacht of South America. So, I am sure that during the 1978 crisis, most Chileans were shitting bricks at the prospect of facing the "master race of South America" in combat.
It was only after the 1982 war that the myth was dispelled. The poor planning, the half-ass improvisations, the knee jerk reactions, the lack of coordination between the air force, navy and army served to show the rest of South America that the Argentinian military was not the "the Wehrmacht of South America". They were just a bunch of uniformed "brown monkeys" that someone painted white.

The Argentine military of that time was in truth a poorly trained police force, capable of little more than subduing and killing its own unarmed (or poorly armed) citizens.