Finally ! the devaluation we were waiting for will take place on monday !

[NikBaires]

Hahah........I fell out of my chair I was so excited....then the link didn't go through!

 

[ghost]

It doesn't matter. If the 4 peso candy bar is 4 pesos today and the peso goes 7 to one the the same candy bar will be 7 pesos. no winners in the game , not the way it's played here. But there will be losers and they will be those who earn in pesos. All others just tread water.

 

[LAtoBA]

Oh, that was an easy one, sorry.

About a possible devaluation, this used to be a recurrent subject on the forum one year ago (likely before too) but it is hardly mentionned now.

I sincerely thought (wished ?) one would occur before the elections, I was wrong.

I wonder what is, political opinions aside/just economics & eventually the political calculations included, the potential of a devaluation occuring before/after the election :
- in terms of export (soja bean, etc.)
- in terms of local salaries (and moreover the overwhelming proportion of low salaries)
- well, all aspects being taken into account.

Of course, that would be a big blow to the expats still making an income in pesos (there still are). But while I usually can elaborate answers to particular situations, regarding Argentina & economics in particular, I still have trouble foreseeing what's coming, even after 8 years living here.

If by "devaluation" you mean economic crash, there will be one soon. The odds of that happening before the elections are virtually zero. Christina and her government will do everything in their power to stave off any type of fiscal crisis until after the elections.....for obvious reasons.

Strictly from an economic perspective, Argentina's lax monetary policy coupled with rapid fiscal growth and limited access to voluntary financing (domestic and foreign), continues to exacerbate inflation and could quite possibly lead to a budget deficit so severe that the Bank would have to deplete its currency reserves, which if any of you were here in 2001, would lead to same type of economic disaster. I don't know Argentina's current currency reserve levels but I do remember that some months ago they were at record highs, which from an economic perspective is a good thing.

I'm sure many of you remember the pension measure lead by the opposition some months ago that would have increased the minimum pension to 82% of the minimum wage. Christina ended up vetoing that measure. Had it been passed I would've speculated a financial crisis by the end of 2011. While the measure was not passed I suspect that it will be brought to the forefront again...Argentina's people will demand it. Which touches on another very interesting issue--the Argentine people's role in bankrupting their own nation.

I would expect another economic crisis and "devaluation" some time in 2013, though 2012 cannot be ruled out. We will have a better understanding of the country's finances after the elections.

 

[steveinbsas]

I find it amazing how serious an April Fool's post became in less than a day.

I also wonder what everyone is planning to do when the (apparently) inevitable happens.
.

 

[Fuyi]

I also wonder what everyone is planning to do when the (apparently) inevitable happens.

Freak out?

 

[marksoc]

Quote:
Originally Posted by steveinbsas
I also wonder what everyone is planning to do when the (apparently) inevitable happens.

Freak out?

What we always do: go to Mar Del Plata or Cordoba and laugh about it, we know that two years after any crisis we will be ok again,since they are not crisis of the production system like in the US. Jobs and industries are here (and in Brazil).

 

[Johnno]

I *was* starting to wonder when I would get the ''April Fools'' factor Its been years since I have lived/worked overseas - and this is my first year (first few months) living overseas again and as April 1st came around I was expecting the usual carry on we get in Oz - but nobody ''April Fooled'' me - until now anyway - however I regret to say my French friend that by ''Aussie Rules'' you have failed - because its after 2am here now which means you only caught me on April 2nd

Mind you - on a serious note - I'm just wondering (for those of you who have been here long term) to what extent DO you think the sort of inflation you are talking about will affect people like myself who do most of their earning in dollars and may be earning some of their income here locally - but most of it as I said in Aussie dollars...

Theoretically (and I am no economist - and to be honest too much mathematics even will do my head in) - but I would have thought that as long as I am earning in dollars I would be ''better off'' ?

I guess I am asking because I am hoping to buy a place here later on in the year and to get settled in etc...

Thanks in advance,

Johnno