Future economic trends

[darmanad]

If Argentina finally reaches an agreement with the Paris Club it will have rebuilt relations with international money markets and could see a “flood” of capital inflow into crucial sectors of the economy.
http://en.mercopress.com/2010/11/18...ewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily
If that happens, the peso will firm up, the dollar will not rise against the peso, inflation will lessen and, to the extent it still exists, the cushy life for US expats in a cheap BA (see 2010 Mercer survey) will be over.
If it doesn't happen, more inflation, a peso that will weaken significantly against the dollar right after the next Pres election, and BA will remain a relatively good spot for retirees and young people with limited travel budgets. Not to mention hard times for the Argentine middle and lower classes

 

[gouchobob]

If Argentina finally reaches an agreement with the Paris Club it will have rebuilt relations with international money markets and could see a “flood” of capital inflow into crucial sectors of the economy.
http://en.mercopress.com/2010/11/18...ewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily
If that happens, the peso will firm up, the dollar will not rise against the peso, inflation will lessen and, to the extent it still exists, the cushy life for US expats in a cheap BA (see 2010 Mercer survey) will be over.
If it doesn't happen, more inflation, a peso that will weaken significantly against the dollar right after the next Pres election, and BA will remain a relatively good spot for retirees and young people with limited travel budgets. Not to mention hard times for the Argentine middle and lower classes

Possible, but there are a lot of unknowns. I don't see Argentina as a destination for much foreign investment with the current government although settling up on the defaulted debt will help. The policies the government is pursuing is causing the inflation, don't see that changing over the next year. And of course this all assumes there continues to be a strong market and high prices for the things Argentina produces, no sure thing in my opinion.

 

[citygirl]

I would be quite surprised to see a flood of capital entering the country, even if they do settle, given the business climate here and the banking issues. Too much risk, not enough return.

As far as the cushy life for expats, that ended a while ago for the vast majority.

 

[Johnny]

If Argentina finally reaches an agreement with the Paris Club it will have rebuilt relations with international money markets and could see a “flood” of capital inflow into crucial sectors of the economy.
http://en.mercopress.com/2010/11/18...ewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily
If that happens, the peso will firm up, the dollar will not rise against the peso, inflation will lessen and, to the extent it still exists, the cushy life for US expats in a cheap BA (see 2010 Mercer survey) will be over.
If it doesn't happen, more inflation, a peso that will weaken significantly against the dollar right after the next Pres election, and BA will remain a relatively good spot for retirees and young people with limited travel budgets. Not to mention hard times for the Argentine middle and lower classes

I don't think an agreement with the Paris Club will change much. Argentina will be an "7" on the international pariah list rather than a "9". In addition, it is not likely to happen anytime soon. Boudou the Magnificent showered some cold water on that the other day.

As an aside, we are already beginning to see some cracks in the Kirchnerite united front. This will only increase now that K is not around to crack the whip. No way is CFK going to be able to keep all of her ambitious cabinet members on the same page the way K did.

 

[pauper]

I don't think an agreement with the Paris Club will change much. Argentina will be an "7" on the international pariah list rather than a "9". In addition, it is not likely to happen anytime soon. Boudou the Magnificent showered some cold water on that the other day.

As an aside, we are already beginning to see some cracks in the Kirchnerite united front. This will only increase now that K is not around to crack the whip. No way is CFK going to be able to keep all of her ambitious cabinet members on the same page the way K did.

Interesting, why do you think it won't happen anytime soon and what cracks do you see appearing?

Here's something I didn't know about the Paris club:

The Paris Club met for the first time in May 1956 in the French capital, after Argentina “voiced the need to meet its sovereign creditors to prevent a default,”

 

[Johnny]

Interesting, why do you think it won't happen anytime soon and what cracks do you see appearing?

Here's something I didn't know about the Paris club:

Hi Pauper. Looks like I should have read today's and yesterday's newspaper before posting ! Bodou has done an about face and now more optimistic about an agreement being reached, sooner than later. Maybe CFK has a little whip in her after all.