Goodbye Cristina - Game Over.

[Gringoboy]

This Clarin article sums it up quite nicely.
http://www.clarin.com/opinion/Malefica_0_1481252439.html

 

[ben]

This Clarin article sums it up quite nicely.
http://www.clarin.co...1481252439.html

There are a whole bunch of cute articles like this in La Nacion and Clarín. Some point out interesting details, but almost all share one fatal flaw: No serious analysis of Cristina's behaviour can omit the number 2019.

As far is CFK herself is concerned, she is not going away, rather moving her base of operations to the Senate, in the full expectation that she will return to the Casa Rosada in 4 years. She is positioning herself to become Macri's major opponent, and the Senate - where Macri is far from enjoying any sort of majority, and as such is utterly beholden to her for anything legislative - is her best spot to do that. Her plan of action seems to make life difficult enough for Macri - and more importantly, under Macri - that she will have a good shot at rescuing the country from him in four years.

In this context, suddenly everything makes sense. Behavior that is revolting for civilized people does not matter - she is not running for election this year. This year, her electorate is the PJ, where she needs to cement control, and the K devotees who need reassurance that she is still on top of things. There is no handover in her mind - there is a small realignment in an ongoing struggle. The flurry of landmines she is leaving him - no reserves, the devaluation, the last DNU regarding the provinces - cease to be simply vindictive parting gifts, and take on the character of but one part in a larger strategy of weighing Macri down over his coming term, and securing control over her power base. And rest assured that there a few more shoes waiting to drop.

One can only hope that Macri's team understands what they're in for, and is as willing as necessary to devote substantial attention and resources to PR, to building - both in the streets and but particularly with the youth and in the school system, where La Campora has made significant inroads - a sense of civic duty and an educated electorate that will be empowered to see through the coming barrage of populism. Both to stand a chance of winning concessions during Macri's term, as well as to solidify his position in 2017, when the Senate makeup can change, and of course in 2019.

And finally, and notwithstanding the argument about this some time ago: if there is cause to personally haul CFK's rear end into jail, it must seriously be weighed whether exercising that option would make more probable her ultimate return to power, or whether it can be used more effectively as a nuclear option to have her stand down when truly important.

 

[nicoenarg]

I think everyone understands what CFK is trying to do. Plenty of folks on TV have discussed it at great length. People seem to forget that this fight between Macri and CFK didn't just start when Macri won the elections on November 22nd. This has been going on for the last 8 years. CFK and FPV did all they could in the city both through the Federal government and through the City parliament to make sure PRO would lose. But PRO is still in power and doing fine and FPV has been all but losing ground (went from the second most voted party to the third in the last elections with merely 20% support).

What I'm getting at is, sure CFK is trying to derail things for Macri but she's using the same old tactics she's always used. And Macri isn't alone, De la Sota just said that UNA is going to ensure quorum for Macri in the lower house even if they have some differences. It is definitely going to be interesting but I don't see this as CFK having the upper hand like many are trying to paint this as. My prediction is she goes the way of Menem especially when the true extent of the damage she's done becomes known.

 

[Gringoboy]

I agree with El Nico.
If the powers that be can really make the effort to prove that's she's guilty of some or even all the misdemeanors she is said to have committed, then her route to the Casa Rosada would be an impossibly steep hill to climb.
I think Ben over simplifies the issue (whilst being a very sharp observer himself). The amount of water to flow under this bridge in four years? Well...

 

[ElQueso]

Something tells me that a majority of PJ folk are hiding in the wings to see how things look after Macri starts his administration and we'll see how much Cristina's influence continues with their actual political desires. After the last couple of years and the recent voting, I don't get the feeling that the PJ adherents themselves actually like Cristina.

I used to think that Cristina was indeed positioning herself for another run in 2019 (and she probably does think she is), but given the way too many people in this country are reacting to her stupidity as she leaves the presidency, given the way people seem to be waking from a bad dream after 8 years of her egotistical mandate, I think many are seeing her for what she really is: a narcissist who believes that total control by the State centered around her as a cultural icon, is the way forward for a country that has so many resources to use to actually make things better, and that better is not what the majority of Argentinos got in the last 8 years under her forceful, egotistical management at the helm of state.

I can still see Macri failing in his mandate simply because of what Cristina has left behind (both the condition of the economy and an alliance that still has some pretty strong control of congress), but I can also see the people who consider themselves PJ to start formulating their own candidates to oppose Macri in 2019. The elections in 2017 will be an interesting event to see how this goes forward, I think.

I certainly don't think that Peronism is on its way out here, but I can't see that Kirchnerism will continue in the future. Maybe if Maximo wasn't such a waste case (and wanted political recognition like his mama) Kircherism itself could take another run, but her and Nestor left depended much on the FpV's direction on they, themselves, as arbiters and definers of the "movement".

I'd also like to see some of the balloting issues worked out that came out after the election and ballotage. Boxes filled with FpV votes before the election started, people going to vote and being turned away because they'd already voted, supposed videos of food being distributed for votes, etc. It would be interesting to know (though we probably never will) just how close both races actually were.

The illusion of power can sometimes be strong enough to create actual power, but the mob is fickle and support for her will wane, I think, leaving only the idiots of La Campora and other "militant" organizations full of brainwashed adorers that she encouraged, as her base support in the future.

Put a strong PJ candidate in the next presidential election (maybe Massa?) and things will be quite different I think, as far as support for Cristina goes, but hopefully we will see signs of how things are swaying in another two years.

As far as Cristina getting hit with legal problems any time soon - I wouldn't hold my breathe. How long has it been since Menem, Cavallo, et al, were in office, then charged, until they were convicted? Not that it won't happen at all to her, but how long will it take the wheels of justice to turn? Before 2019? I guess it also depends on how bad things actually are, as far as what she's done and what can be proven after she leaves office. If I were Macri I'd show her up as a complete incompetent and demonstrate what she did to mismanage things and why things are where they are, but a high-profile show of prosecution in the next couple of years, at least, will do a lot to keep her name in the news with the possibility of so much exposure backfiring on Macri.

 

[ben]

I do not disagree with most of what's written here by Gringo Nico and Queso.

My point was less to point out the likelihood of CFK being reelected in 2019 - though the threat of that happening and of her beating down Macri in a war of attrition is substantially higher than zero - but rather to say that goodbyes are premature, as for the moment she is not going anywhere. Also, that only through that lens does her behaviour become coherent. Whether her strategy will work in the long run is a different story altogether. I certainly hope not, and actually don't think it will work, but it's way too early to tell.

The whole point of wanting the handover to take place in the Congress is to cement that place as her/the new seat of power. As well, she has so far succeeded in ensuring that she remains at the helm of peronismo. Absent a well-coordinated coup, she is likely to stay there for a while.

Her trump cards are almost total control of the Senate - absent a huge desertion - and the possibility that La Campora etc, possibly allied with (some) labor, will create mayhem on the streets (saqueos etc). Her chances of success are dependent on a) how well Macri succeeds at governing, and providing security, b ) how well she can hold on to power within peronismo, as mentioned by Queso. That, in turn, depends on a).

CFK's has at her service an unknown-in-size, possibly huge, body of youth that has sworn loyalty to her (think this), and Maximo - who it may not be wise to underestimate. Macri's trump cards are his ability to build consensus, and the existence of a police force that he can firmly rely on from day one - I refer to the Metropolitana, which will certainly rise in importance at least until the Policia Federal is firmly under control.

Regarding Menem, that's a slightly different story: he had long ceased to be a real threat to anybody. He had lost an election and had effectively been deposed from any real power: he was not a thorn in anyone's side. CFK seems to be licking her lips at the prospect of being a thorn in Macri's side, so the calculus is different both regarding her chances at retaining power as well as the value of aggressively prosecuting her. I agree with Queso, and wrote myself as well, that actually prosecuting her can be counterproductive. More important is that she know that he can do so, and that ultimately he may well succeed, as a nuclear option.

 

[Gringoboy]

Well she's not going to win many friends with Tweets like this. One of the reasons I don't use Twitter lol.


Source:
https://twitter.com/CFKArgentina/status/673610734916534272

 

[PeterAustin]

I am sad that there is no longer a toy in my kinder egg...

 

[Rich One]

Former Secretary of the Presidencia Parrilli accuses Judge di llelo of starting a Coup D'Etat , leaving the State Headless for 12 hours..
Tantamount to sending the tanks to Plaza de Mayo to remove a President

 

[nikad]

Former Secretary of the Presidencia Parrilli accuses Judge di llelo of starting a Coup D'Etat , leaving the State Headless for 12 hours..
Tantamount to sending the tanks to Plaza de Mayo to remove a President

Di Lello is a Federal Attorney, judge Servini de Cubria has not ruled on this as of yet.