IMF Publishes Grim Evaluation of Argentina’s $44 Billion Deal

[MilHojas]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-publishes-grim-evaluation-argentina-160734247.html

The International Monetary Fund published a somber review of its most recent program that failed in Argentina, finishing a technical step needed before President Javier Milei negotiates a new agreement this year.

 

[sergio]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-publishes-grim-evaluation-argentina-160734247.html

I have read that the CEPO must be dropped before there will be more IMF money. That would mean that the overvalued peso would find its realistic level (to the relief of many expats) and there would undoubtedly be greater inflation.

 

[mikic007]

I have read that the CEPO must be dropped before there will be more IMF money. That would mean that the overvalued peso would find its realistic level (to the relief of many expats) and there would undoubtedly be greater inflation.

I'm not sure if cepo would do that, but the value of peso is a burden for sure. Expats don't matter in this picture, Argentina is simply objectively too expensive on so many levels, that is unsustainable. There can't be no growth.

 

[Rich One]

I'm not sure if cepo would do that, but the value of peso is a burden for sure. Expats don't matter in this picture, Argentina is simply objectively too expensive on so many levels, that is unsustainable. There can't be no growth.

A sample value of a coffee at Florence's cafe Gilli (numero 1) 2.5 Euro

 

[LuckyLuke]

The article doesn't really say much...but this sentence is absolutely comically ridiculous...

"Markets are keenly watching Caputo’s negotiations with IMF staff to see if the lender will provide fresh funding beyond $44 billion"

I mean, the Milei administration, thanks to ongoing negative net foreign reserves (despite an immense Blanqueo) is clearly incapable of paying down any principal of the loan balance and instead is essentially refinancing each repayment installment to negotiate lower interest rates and extend the repayment timeline.

That anyone in the "markets" would think this kind of futile can-kicking is worth deceiving convincing a creditor to lend even more money to Argentina is delusional gambling addiction type hope.

 

[Redpossum]

The article doesn't really say much...but this sentence is absolutely comically ridiculous...

"Markets are keenly watching Caputo’s negotiations with IMF staff to see if the lender will provide fresh funding beyond $44 billion"

I mean, the Milei administration, thanks to ongoing negative net foreign reserves (despite an immense Blanqueo) is clearly incapable of paying down any principal of the loan balance and instead is essentially refinancing each repayment installment to negotiate lower interest rates and extend the repayment timeline.

That anyone in the "markets" would think this kind of futile can-kicking is worth deceiving convincing a creditor to lend even more money to Argentina is delusional gambling addiction type hope.

Milei's economic policies are looking more and more like a repeat of Macri, especially the whole "selling dollars to hold down the blue" scam.

Now let's see if the IMF will repeat their past mistakes.

 

[Vossos]

I'm not sure if cepo would do that, but the value of peso is a burden for sure. Expats don't matter in this picture, Argentina is simply objectively too expensive on so many levels, that is unsustainable. There can't be no growth.

It seems to me that we currently have both 10% monthly inflation and a static USD exchange rate and I don’t see that being sustainable beyond the order of months. I’m sure tourism has plummeted from those without personal ties to Argentina and Argentinian exports must rapidly be getting less and less competitive.

Expats and tourists are presumably a drop in the ocean compared to exports.

Argentina surely needs foreign currency reserves but all signs I see anecdotally point to them surely dwindling

 

[Mondongo]

My hunch is that Milei will return to Argentina from Trump's inauguration with a loan of around 20 billion dollars.

 

[chris]

My hunch is that Milei will return to Argentina from Trump's inauguration with a loan of around 20 billion dollars.

Without dropping the CEPO? The IMF won't agree from what I have read.

 

[Che1990]

Milei's economic policies are looking more and more like a repeat of Macri, especially the whole "selling dollars to hold down the blue" scam.

Now let's see if the IMF will repeat their past mistakes.

Yep. The peso hit $1500 in July, so it should be at least $1700 now.

It’s nothing more than Milei’s own “plan platita”. Instead of giving the population money by printing it like Massa did, he’s spending it all on keeping the exchange rate down so people can travel abroad and say they earn the best in the region in dollars terms.