Maybe "[we] don't see it" as Milei's fanboys like to say, but I'd love for our Economist In Chief to explain to us how this grift is supposed to work considering the following:
- The blanqueo is over, there's no more dollars incoming
- The IMF says continued cepo ≠ no more disbursements
- Brazil has devalued the Real, making their exports cheaper
- Brazil exports basically the same things as Argentina does, but cheaper
- Instead of growing the BCRA reserves, we have net negative reserves because the few dollars Argentina gets its hands on are used by Milei and Caputo to intervene in the MEP and CCL markets, just like Cristina/Alberto/Massa
- Everything in Argentina is expensive in pesos and dollars, so people buy things abroad/don't buy things at all, and VAT revenue collapses
- Inflation refuses to go below 2-3% a month, even when Milei has nuked the macro economy. There's no more tricks to play, it just continues humming along despite being in a recession
- The carry trade is slowing down as it's expected that there will be another rate cut at the BCRA this month, so even less fun money
- Milei keeps talking about a FTA with the US, despite the fact we're in Mercosur, AND, even more importantly, Trump has spent the last decade railing against them as candidate and president
- Even the right wing economists are saying the dollar is artificially cheap, and say it should be closer to $1,600
