Is the Arg peso to USD exchange rate in other countries a sign of things to come?

[JeffR]

https://www.iprofesional.com/finanz...solita-cifra-para-comprar-un-dolar-en-Uruguay

I ran across this article about the Arg peso to USD exchange rate in currency exchanges in other countries. Currently the rate is 124 Arg pesos for $1 USD, in Uruguay.

I understand why the rate in other countries is so low. But, I am wondering if anyone who has gone through several economic cycles in Argentina knows if this is a leading indicator of what the peso may rise to vs. the USD? For example, in Uruguay and rate is roughly 2X the blue rate within Argentina.

 

[Caribbean Cool]

scarry

 

[perry]

https://www.iprofesional.com/finanz...solita-cifra-para-comprar-un-dolar-en-Uruguay

I ran across this article about the Arg peso to USD exchange rate in currency exchanges in other countries. Currently the rate is 124 Arg pesos for $1 USD, in Uruguay.

I understand why the rate in other countries is so low. But, I am wondering if anyone who has gone through several economic cycles in Argentina knows if this is a leading indicator of what the peso may rise to vs. the USD? For example, in Uruguay and rate is roughly 2X the blue rate within Argentina.

Does this mean that you can change dollars there and recieve this rate freely ?

 

[Pensador]

I am looking into this now. I would not be surprised if the inflated rate was URU protecting their Reserve from Argentinians. When I get more info I will post here.

 

[on the brink]

I am looking into this now. I would not be surprised if the inflated rate was URU protecting their Reserve from Argentinians. When I get more info I will post here.

Please do so......!

 

[LookingToThrive]

I did some internet searching (not definitive!) and found many exchange places in Montevideo posting 120+ ARS rates but only for buying Pesos. For selling, all but one quoted in the mid 60s per US dollar. The one exception was a multi location place but I failed to save the name (fail!).

Below is a pic showing the large bid/ask on ARS and the end result of a 68 ARS/USD rate.

 

[JeffR]

I am looking into this now. I would not be surprised if the inflated rate was URU protecting their Reserve from Argentinians. When I get more info I will post here.

That's what I was wondering about also. There's a penalty for selling Arg pesos to buy USD, but as Looking To Thrive said the rate to sell a USD and buy pesos is more or less normal.

 

[ben]

This sounds like much ado about nothing.
There is next to no market abroad for ARS. Exchanging ARS for real money - even at the blue rate - means getting it first to Argentina. And by the time you get it to Argentina, who knows what has happened. So the peso is purchased only at a heavy discount, to account for its illiquidity.

(Last time around, I know people who in 2012 took ARS cash with them, went to exchange houses in the US/Canada off the beaten path, and managed to find suckers who’d accept ARS at the official rate, not realizing that they were paying real money for Monopoly money.
Doubt that’d work this time around. People have gotten wise to Arg peso being weird).

 

[JeffR]

This sounds like much ado about nothing.
There is next to no market abroad for ARS. Exchanging ARS for real money - even at the blue rate - means getting it first to Argentina. And by the time you get it to Argentina, who knows what has happened. So the peso is purchased only at a heavy discount, to account for its illiquidity.

(Last time around, I know people who in 2012 took ARS cash with them, went to exchange houses in the US/Canada off the beaten path, and managed to find suckers who’d accept ARS at the official rate, not realizing that they were paying real money for Monopoly money.
Doubt that’d work this time around. People have gotten wise to Arg peso being weird).

Thanks Ben, that makes perfect sense.