gouchobob
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- Mar 24, 2009
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The topic of the thread is the possibility of economic collapse in Argentina. Given the current government policies I would say major economic problems are a forgone conclusion. The only unknown's are the timing and how bad it is going to be. The government obviously thought things were going to get worse as the year progressed and had the elections moved to June from October. There are rumors floating around that after the elections there will be more radical moves by the government to stave-off disaster like a wave of additional nationalizations or perhaps becoming more authoritarian in a bid to hold on to power. Whether this will happen time will tell.
What impact will this have on most expats? Not much in my opinion unless you are working in the local economy, or decide you want to leave and have property there(it could be a very tough market to sell in).
Some people believe that another default won't be as bad as 2001. This may be true but it looks doubtful that the country will have the good luck to be bailed out by another commodity boom as occurred after 2001. My take is that if another crisis happens it will probably be different than 2001 and it could be worse. I don't have much confidence in the current government but don't believe that any replacement would necessarily be any better.
I thought the FT article was excellent. What I got from the article is that most of current problems in Argentina(last 50 years or so) are the result of incredibly bad governments making incredibly bad decisions. The really sad part of this is that the
Argentine people on the whole seem to accept all this and don't think it can be any better. Until there is big shift in the thinking of the average Argentine I think Argentina will remain a country with unrealized potential.
What impact will this have on most expats? Not much in my opinion unless you are working in the local economy, or decide you want to leave and have property there(it could be a very tough market to sell in).
Some people believe that another default won't be as bad as 2001. This may be true but it looks doubtful that the country will have the good luck to be bailed out by another commodity boom as occurred after 2001. My take is that if another crisis happens it will probably be different than 2001 and it could be worse. I don't have much confidence in the current government but don't believe that any replacement would necessarily be any better.
I thought the FT article was excellent. What I got from the article is that most of current problems in Argentina(last 50 years or so) are the result of incredibly bad governments making incredibly bad decisions. The really sad part of this is that the
Argentine people on the whole seem to accept all this and don't think it can be any better. Until there is big shift in the thinking of the average Argentine I think Argentina will remain a country with unrealized potential.