Dublin2BuenosAires
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- Feb 21, 2012
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Carrio has bowed to the inevitable and sort of left UNEN, albeit she might in some way contest the BA provincial elections in some way under that banner. No one is clear on that.
The upshot is that UCR is tearing itself apart between PRO alliances, FR (Massa) alliances and still trying to decide if they are socialist, centrist or something in between. They have at least moved slightly closer to resolution by watching Lilita leave, removing the centre right of the grand UNEN or FAUNEN rainbow. Wonder will they rebrand again. Is the FA gone?
I would say the main worry here is that the govt need only 40% in the first round to win, horrible thought. So Massa, Macri (pantomime hissing and booing from the galley) or anyone else will need to boost their current base considerably at the expense of the govt and UCR or (FA)UNEN.
Can Macri or Massa strike enough local deals with UCR to hold up their vote outside their city and provincial bases?
I can't see UNEN holding together long enough to gain 40% in the first round or anything like it, were will those votes go in the 2nd round. Thats what seems to be up for debate, to who horse will they hitch their wagons and will anyone do enough in the 2nd round to stop the govt.
We laughed when this week FPV claimed they'd walk it in the 1st round. It's unnervingly possible that the UCR or UNEN vote will collapse outside the city where they might come 2nd and voters will head back to the govt. Voters are notoriously less rebellious at actual election time.
Trying to understand if the opposition, the gov't, UNEN or anyone really won here.
PASOs will be interesting, that's for sure. Once UNEN pick their candidate their will surely be disgruntled candidates looking for a home. Multiple outcomes for the election are back on the table.
The upshot is that UCR is tearing itself apart between PRO alliances, FR (Massa) alliances and still trying to decide if they are socialist, centrist or something in between. They have at least moved slightly closer to resolution by watching Lilita leave, removing the centre right of the grand UNEN or FAUNEN rainbow. Wonder will they rebrand again. Is the FA gone?
I would say the main worry here is that the govt need only 40% in the first round to win, horrible thought. So Massa, Macri (pantomime hissing and booing from the galley) or anyone else will need to boost their current base considerably at the expense of the govt and UCR or (FA)UNEN.
Can Macri or Massa strike enough local deals with UCR to hold up their vote outside their city and provincial bases?
I can't see UNEN holding together long enough to gain 40% in the first round or anything like it, were will those votes go in the 2nd round. Thats what seems to be up for debate, to who horse will they hitch their wagons and will anyone do enough in the 2nd round to stop the govt.
We laughed when this week FPV claimed they'd walk it in the 1st round. It's unnervingly possible that the UCR or UNEN vote will collapse outside the city where they might come 2nd and voters will head back to the govt. Voters are notoriously less rebellious at actual election time.
Trying to understand if the opposition, the gov't, UNEN or anyone really won here.
PASOs will be interesting, that's for sure. Once UNEN pick their candidate their will surely be disgruntled candidates looking for a home. Multiple outcomes for the election are back on the table.
