Midterm election results

[LuckyLuke]

It was a truly decisive victory. The crazy stat is that over 10 million voters stayed at home. I think a lot of FP voters are just not interested in Axel and crew. I guess now we will really see what Milei does and if he can follow through with all his promises. Very interesting times ahead.

It's also a bit mind-boggling to think that the FP were partly running on the "injustice" of CFKs conviction when between 53% and 67% of people think she is guilty and deserves to go to jail. She is so polarising, but I guess Peronistas need a "strongman" type leader to keep it going.

There is some speculation that the unica boleta made it hard to pull off the ballot fraud that PJ was accustomed to. It would imply historical massive fraud, but could explain the mystery behind CABA flipping so drastically. Anecdotally, a voting booth fiscal also mentioned that many of the PJ voters did not properly mark the tachado nullifying their votes.

 

[Warm_breeze]

There is some speculation that the unica boleta made it hard to pull off the ballot fraud that PJ was accustomed to. It would imply historical massive fraud, but could explain the mystery behind CABA flipping so drastically. Anecdotally, a voting booth fiscal also mentioned that many of the PJ voters did not properly mark the tachado nullifying their votes.

it was inevitable LLA would get the seats given the USA just gave them 20B

the usa would not allow them to lose

 

[dlish]

Sent $1000 via WU to myself this morning and got rate at 1545. Was actually able to pick up the cash just now and so tried a second transfer right after but it’s now adjusted down to the 1420 rate plus fees.

 

[LuckyLuke]

it was inevitable LLA would get the seats given the USA just gave them 20B

the usa would not allow them to lose

Perhaps so...there's another theory that PJ exhausted their funds fighting for the provincial elections in September and no longer had the wherewithal to bribe mobilize their supporters. Even so far as saying that PJ supporters in barrio humildes were flooded from the recent rain. Obviously all these theories share the same the theme...an LLA victory is righteous and PJ dishonest.

That being said, I don't think there's universal support even among LLA fans for saddling Argentina with more debt for more pointless intervention.

 

[Alby]

Obviously all these theories share the same the theme...an LLA victory is righteous and PJ dishonest.

On the other hand, the comments sections of many YouTube videos are filled with cries of "fraud" to explain the massive swing in the PBA result in the few weeks since the provincial election. Amusing that the inverse possibility doesn't seem to occur to any of these pundits: that the dishonest election result was the one the PJ won.

(Neither election result is explained by fraud, of course.)

 

[DarrenKK]

Milei did it again. 100% saved by Donnie’s moneyhose. Hopes of a cheaper peso out the window … the cheap times for expats are gone for good

Gone for good is a long time but the sentiment I agree with.

 

[mageesa]

It was a truly decisive victory. The crazy stat is that over 10 million voters stayed at home. I think a lot of FP voters are just not interested in Axel and crew. I guess now we will really see what Milei does and if he can follow through with all his promises. Very interesting times ahead.

That reminds me of Trump's 2024 win; people generally expected Kamala to win, so Ds who weren't particularly excited about her stayed home. Not sure if Trump actually picked up more votes than in 2020, or if he just had a more motivated base on election day.

Will there be that sort of analysis after this election: if it was due to FP voters slacking off, or if there was increased turnout for LLA, people switching sides, etc?

 

[Alby]

There is plenty of analysis going on, from both the winners and losers. But this guy (the interviewee) was the only pollster who correctly predicted what would happen, on Thursday. He said the angry vote was spent in the September provincial election, just as the angry vote was registered on the PASO election of 2019, before something of a comeback from Macri in the presidential election. He said the same thing would happen in this election. And he was right.

(Fascinated by the statement "people generally expected Kamala to win". Not from the US, but a close follower of media from there across the spectrum. My distinct impression is that "Democrats" generally expected Kamala to win. Nobody else did.)

 

[sergio]

Milei did it again. 100% saved by Donnie’s moneyhose. Hopes of a cheaper peso out the window … the cheap times for expats are gone for good

The issue as I see it isn't a cheap peso but a realistic peso that reflects market conditions.

 

[sergio]

I don’t see the dollar going down much, maybe 10% which is what Caputo said last week, and what the dollar crypto dropped last night.

1400-1500 is reasonable.

Will things get really expensive again? Lets hope not, inflation is under control and Caputo said he was comfortable with the rate at $1500.

The idea of keeping the exchange rate controlled was to win these elections

With 30% inflation it will be even more expensive unless there is some devaluation