Milei: No Dollarization in 2024

[argeiCanuck]

The individual customers we see at cuevas are composed of tourists and office clerks, buying one hundred dollars for savings, they rarely operate over US$ 1000. A drop in the bucket.

The Blue Dollar price is based on expectations.
In markets that are intervened ( by Central Bank) plus others, and where politics play a key role, require a more complex analysis. Complex markets are those where the basic supply and demand conditions are changing at the same time. Hence supply and demand laws act somehow differently.

Are you suggesting that market movers are not impressed by everyone on Santa Fe?

That's not fair. Breaking the fundamentals.

 

[Rich One]

Are you suggesting that market movers are not impressed by everyone on Santa Fe?

That's not fair.

I get a kick, when the dollar is volatile, they send reporters to Florida St . to interview passers by or arbolitos, as a measure of the Argentine foreign exchange reality.

 

[argeiCanuck]

I get a kick, when the dollar is volatile, they send reporters to Florida St . to interview passers by or arbolitos, as a measure of the Argentine foreign exchange reality.

The situation is getting out of hand. It has been more than 2 weeks ,,,,,,

 

[SinPulgas]

The individual customers we see at cuevas are composed of tourists and office clerks, buying one hundred dollars for savings, they rarely operate over US$ 1000. A drop in the bucket.

The Blue Dollar price is based on expectations.
In markets that are intervened ( by Central Bank) plus others, and where politics play a key role, require a more complex analysis. Complex markets are those where the basic supply and demand conditions are changing at the same time. Hence supply and demand laws act somehow differently.

I have the utmost respect for you, Rich One, and Argentina is an extremely crazy place, where sometimes the laws of physics and the natural world don't seem to apply, but you'll never convince me in a thousand years that Argentina has somehow managed to subvert the law of supply and demand.

 

[SinPulgas]

The situation is getting out of hand. It has been more than 2 weeks ,,,,,,

And I'm only talking about what has happened in those two and a half weeks. I'm not talking about the past six months, when the dollar blue has gone from 602 to 1145, or the last 14 years, when the dollar blue went from 4 to 1145.

The market is reacting to recent news, and it's not just the blue. People are selling. It's a correction. Will it last? Who knows?

It's very clear that you know a lot more than I do. But I retired here at 47, well, by not knowing anything about what I'm doing or what I'm talking about, so that's ok.

 

[TonyTigre]

You can be both right at the time. Prices and exchange rates do not go up or down in a straight line. It's it quite normal for price consolidation to happen after a sharp increase or decline in a short time. If you focus on the a small time frame you see one thing, while another focusing on a wider range sees something else. Also, the amount traded doesn't necessary correlate to the number of people trading. You can certainly have a few buying large amounts in anticipation of demand and then sell when it reaches a certain point, forcing prices to fall, and then buy it back again when they see another excuse to pump it again. So yes, there is a change in supply and demand, but it's not always clear whether the change is caused by the supply side or the demand side, especially when looking at a small timeframe.

 

[SinPulgas]

You can be both right at the time. Prices and exchange rates do not go up or down in a straight line. It's it quite normal for price consolidation to happen after a sharp increase or decline in a short time. If you focus on the a small time frame you see one thing, while another focusing on a wider range sees something else. Also, the amount traded doesn't necessary correlate to the number of people trading. You can certainly have a few buying large amounts in anticipation of demand and then sell when it reaches a certain point, forcing prices to fall, and then buy it back again when they see another excuse to pump it again. So yes, there is a change in supply and demand, but it's not always clear whether the change is caused by the supply side or the demand side, especially when looking at a small timeframe.

I don't think I said anything that disagrees with that.

And I agree with all of it.

 

[mikic007]

It's pretty simple. Who can, is buying, of course. 100, 200, whatever they can. Some people are waiting. And some, are definitely selling, not because they want to, but because they need to.

Prices are no joke at the moment, and people are expecting higher salaries in near future, some also expect cepo to be removed, so they are selling to maintain part of the lifestyle. They are selling to afford vacations. In some cuevas with higher purchase power around, of course people are still buying, in some other, traffic is opposite.

Till now although salaries were decreasing gradually, most of middle class still lived ok, which is not the case at the moment. But those people were able to put together significant amount of dolars in past years. They are spending less now, but certain things are not negotiable, like asado, pool, cleaning...

I guess if new devaluation comes, and prices will keep rising, without proper adjustment to salaries, we won't see big movements in blue. At least until harvest money disappears.

 

[Rich One]

Everyone has the right to an opinion, and express it on the board.
Confrontation is not recommended by all means.

 

[Quilombo]

No Dollarization, No Blowing Central Bank, No Chainsaw...! Just adding Casta, adding more old JxC losers.
Like Scioli et. al.

The Scioli thing made me laugh audibly, like, him and Pato are the caste incarnate. At this point the only anti-caste party is FIT-U, the "dirty commies" as Milei calls them. Everyone else is in the Milei cabinet.

And it's not like he was some city councilor in the boonies, Scioli was literally the K candidate for President against Macri, Governor of PBA, President of the PJ, Nestor's VP... I know those of us on the left have always said that the Ks/Peronists/Milei/Macri are all the same, but I didn't expect Milei to be the one to prove it.