Nigel Farage was Right

camberiu

camberiu

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The Greek election has just finished and the New Democracy party got the most votes. I expect the Peso to remain stable or to gain against the dollar tomorrow, as the immediate reaction of the market is to think that the Eurozone has been saved by the New Democracy win in Greece. I think this is a mistake. The insistence on keeping Greece from defaulting and part of the Eurozone will just make matters worse. I expect massive instability in Europe moving forward, as more austerity for the benefit of bond holders are imposed on the Europeans. This will have very negative impacts here too.


Nigel Farage, a member of the European parliament, is one of my heros. This video clearly demonstrates how incredible the Austrian School of Economics is. Mr. Farage saw the whole Euro crisis years before the mainstream economics and media talking heads. This is a great video, specially for those who were "surprised" by the Erupean meltdown. Please watch it.

http://youtu.be/Wb-MWoZKYmg

The implications for Argentina of what is happening in Europe are tremendous.
 
I do not think the peso will be gaining against the dollar any time soon
 
Lclc23 said:
I do not think the peso will be gaining against the dollar any time soon
Click to expand...

You could be right. However, due to the potential euphoria about Greece remaining in the Eurozone, I could see the dollar blue falling tomorrow. I do not think it will last, but I think it could happen.
 
camberiu said:
The Greek election has just finished and the New Democracy party got the most votes. I expect the Peso to remain stable or to gain against the dollar tomorrow, as the immediate reaction of the market is to think that the Eurozone has been saved by the New Democracy win in Greece. I think this is a mistake. The insistence on keeping Greece from defaulting and part of the Eurozone will just make matters worse. I expect massive instability in Europe moving forward, as more austerity for the benefit of bond holders are imposed on the Europeans. This will have very negative impacts here too.


Nigel Farage, a member of the European parliament, is one of my heros. This video clearly demonstrates how incredible the Austrian School of Economics is. Mr. Farage saw the whole Euro crisis years before the mainstream economics and media talking heads. This is a great video, specially for those who were "surprised" by the Erupean meltdown. Please watch it.

http://youtu.be/Wb-MWoZKYmg

The implications for Argentina of what is happening in Europe are tremendous.
Click to expand...


You may be right about the Euro and Dollar but I'm thinking you're not. The problem is that now the markets aren't just fixated on Greece. Now you've got Spain to worry about too and they're not very positive about Spain.

As much as I think Nigel's a "good" politician (as good as they can be) and right on a lot of things, the writing on the wall about the Euro was pretty darn clear years ago. I personally predicted its fall or some sort of crisis because of it but at the time I was "just a kid". And the prediction was spelled out to my family who couldn't care less about these "pesky little issues".

Not trying to brag here or anything (there's nothing to brag about), just saying that the Euro crisis wasn't that hard to figure out. It was bound to happen.

Kinda like giving out loans to people who couldn't pay those loans back and then packaging those loans as securities and selling them across the globe...everyone knew this ride was going to be a short lived one (by the way, I think the subprime mortgage crisis that developed into a fill blown economic crisis is the fault of the banks who gave out the loans, the government who appeared to have guaranteed the loans AND the people who took those loans) but they went along with it anyway.

Same with the Euro.
 
camberiu said:
I expect the Peso to remain stable or to gain against the dollar tomorrow, as the immediate reaction of the market is to think that the Eurozone has been saved by the New Democracy win in Greece. I think this is a mistake.
Click to expand...

By the time you posted, the rally was already over, if you want to call it that. Including the market gap, EUR/USD moved about one cent. Not exactly the type of market reaction if the Eurozone has been saved...

Greece will eventually get out of the picture, and then heads will turn to France, Italy, Spain, Portugal... This is a mess, and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
 
Unfortunately, the Greek election only prolongs the agony a little longer, with no benefits to anyone.

My biggest concern is that all the more-or-less centrist parties and leaders in Europe are associated with these terribly wrong and painful austerity programs. So in the next wave of changes, people can elect only far-right or far-left governments if they want to change the direction. Hungary has already gone fascist. Who's next?

If you want to consider a really scarey scenario, take a look at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it. At least the near-term predictions seem to be right on the money.
 
camberiu said:
This video clearly demonstrates how incredible the Austrian School of Economics is. Mr. Farage saw the whole Euro crisis years before the mainstream economics and media talking heads.
Click to expand...
Actually, most Keynesians, at least those in the US, predicted this from the rollout of the Euro. For decades, Stiglitz and Krugman, for example, have been warning about the impossibility for the Euro to survive a crisis.
 
nicoenarg said:
As much as I think Nigel's a "good" politician (as good as they can be) and right on a lot of things, the writing on the wall about the Euro was pretty darn clear years ago. I personally predicted its fall or some sort of crisis because of it but at the time I was "just a kid".
Click to expand...

Maybe it was crystal clear to you and to all Austrian economists. But where were the Keynesian and Monetarist "wizards" back in 2006, 2007 or 2008? Where were the "nobel prize winners" such as Krugman or Stiglitz warning about the economic impossibility of the EU? Where where the Ivy League "wizards" of the World Bank, IMF and US Treasury before the "shit hit the fan"? How come it was not obvious to them? How come only the marginalized and mocked Austrians saw this coming?
 
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