Peso what level do you see it this year?

Why are people acting shocked - it's as if people expect FX rates to move in a straight line... But but but it changed 2 pesos in 24 hours but but why why... Welcome to the financial world where economists exist to make themselves look stupid.
 
bigbadwolf said:
A couple of years down the line, it'll probably be 70 pesos to one US dollar.
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The dollar should follow or do better than the inflation rate, so figure by year end, add at least 35 % inflation for the remainder of the year.

45 x 1.35 =$ 60.75 if CFK is a candidate and is reelected $ 100 plus. Who knows..!

'

Pardo
 
Rich One said:
The dollar should follow or do better than the inflation rate, so figure by year end, add at least 35 % inflation for the remainder of the year.

45 x 1.35 =$ 60.75 if CFK is a candidate and is reelected $ 100 plus. Who knows..!
Click to expand...

Your calculations are for one year, I presume, with annual inflation at 35%(?) In two years the exchange rate should go down even more -- maybe 80 to the dollar? Regardless of the figures we generate, I just can't see any natural resting place for the peso: its value against other currencies (dollar, euro) will keep eroding away steadily, just as in the good old days of Argentinian inflation.
 
Many economists agree that whatever government is elected in October? The road will be bumpy. and recovery will take years?
Look at Greece with the IMF help has still 50 % unemployment among the young..!
 
Rich One said:
The road will be bumpy. and recovery will take years?
Look at Greece with the IMF help has still 50 % unemployment among the young..!
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There probably won't be any "recovery" for Argentina's economy -- it will keep limping along from crisis to crisis, with unemployment above 30%. Likewise for Greece. This is the "new normal." Talk of recovery is just to make people feel good.
 
Views here veer from saying nothing will change whatever politicians want or so, and saying that a CFK victory would bring the worst of all possible worlds. I can see the Macri method as the ancient liberal programme of cutting imports, creating trade surpluses, passing on prices to domestic cosumers wherever possible and widening profit margins by sweating labour rather than major investment. CFK could at best ameliorate the deep impoverishment of the bottom 30% but has few alternatives beyond trying to boost domestic growth by infrastructure etc investment. It was not the Kircheners but a traditionalist who defaulted on IMF debts last time and the Kircherners oversaw one of the more impressive recoveries in years during 2002/07 esp in regard to reducing deep inequalities. So I am unclear why people assume CFK would be the worst possible outcome even if international speculation drives the peso to 80 against the USD and that is as yet unproven guess?
 
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Argentina already defaulted? :rolleyes: If it wasn't for the IMF massive dollar injection (such large Loan by IMF a first) Argentina would have already defaulted in 2018...:eek:
 
Argentina has asked the IMF for an increase in the Allowance by US$10 billion additional advance...
 
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