Recession Continues Under Macri

[ben]

Great analogy. let me build on it:
Over a year ago, Macri has declared that "he wants to get a woman pregnant". What has he done so far to accomplish that goal?
Has he gotten into shape, changed his wardrobe and improved his appearance in order to become more attractive tot he opposite sex? Nope.
Has he gone out to nightclubs or bars trying to meet that woman? Nope.
Has he been checking the personal classifieds or Tinder, to try to meet someone? Nope.
Has he at least picked up some books on dating, seduction or picking up girls in order to improve his game? Nope.
So far, all he has done was stay at home masturbating to midgets on donkeys porn, played video games, and eaten junk food.
And when inquired about his lack of progress, his reply so far has been: "patience, impregnating a woman is a complex and difficult matter. it does not happen overnight".

Camberiu's above post needs marks like in Olympic figure skating, for both technical merit and artistic performance or "presentation".

And he gets close to 6.0 for damn near everything.

 

[UK Man]

I think Macri is on the right path; he just needs more time

I agree although time is not on his side.

I fear the worst to be honest and God only knows who'll be voted in at the next election.

 

[ben]

Rickilivi, the plan they are enforcing is the same than in 1978 and it didn't finish well (external debt grew rom 4 billion up to 90).
https://m.facebook.c...id=138025547844

Why now is this going to work out?

So we've moved on from procesado and genocidaI government, to economic arguments[sup]1[/sup]. Progress!

1. Which I am not in a position to address, being unfamiliar with 1978 govt. economic policy.
I do know, however, that bajo_cero's factual references have proven to be accurate exceedingly rarely.

 

[gpop]

Although 7 of 8 past presidents have been peronists - the problems have been long in the making. Macri has his work cut out for him; undoing the quagmire of [at least] the last 8 years prior to his admin AND maintaining positive public approval will be damn-near impossible given the impatience concerning the economy (and I refer to those who voted for him).
There really seems to be a cult-like aura around everything peronista; to the point that the followers would rather ruin any positive change than admit that their ism is / was /will be wrong.

 

[sesamosinsal]

I think Macri is on the right path; he just needs more time to show the effects of his current and future measures.

He is definitely not on the right path.

Macri's economic vision made numerous assumptions about the world economy that used to be true, but are not true any longer. First and foremost, he assumed that opening up the Argentine economy would provoke this rush of investment, without ever truly understanding why the Argentine economy insulated itself in the first place.

Macri believed Argentina's problems -- depressed exports, inflation, currency devaluation, decreased FX reserves -- were only Argentina's problems. Nonetheless, if we look at foreign exchange reserves regionally, which can be used to make inferences about exports, inflation and currency devaluation, we can see that this is certainly a regional problem (also global, although not shown below):

https://www.google.c...&ind=false

The CFK administration abandoned the agro export-led growth strategy (Macri wants to bring it back) that it and many other countries in the region had adopted because China was no longer a willing buyer. China stopped buying soy beans, copper, etc. from the region firstly because U.S. imports from China stagnated after 2008. This was a short lived drop, however. To maintain growth, the Chinese injected billions of dollars in economic stimulus into the economy after 2008, which along with stimulus in other countries, helped Chinese imports rebound. However, the effects of stimulus faded around 2011-2012, which is why the price of commodities in general have plummeted since then.

The CFK administration instead aimed to sustain and increase demand locally given that it could no longer count on its most important trade partners, China and Brazil, to sustain demand. If your biggest trade partners won't buy your exports, what else can you do? You can search for new trade partners, but remember, this is a global problem. Argentina fell because both Brazil and China fell, and Brazil fell because China and the United States fell, and China fell because the United States and Europe fell.

I think CFK would have preferred to continue along the same path that made her husband's administration successful (economically), but she figured out what Macri seemingly hasn't.

Somehow, Macri feels that he can defy global trends. He will fail -- and especially now as he was banking on the U.S. to open its market to Argentine goods. That was always a far-fetched idea simply looking at U.S. trade data, but with Trump it's far less likely.

 

[Gringoboy]

The only thing that fancy chart tells me, apart from the fact the reserves only go as far back as 2014, is that the previous bunch of crooks needed to keep raiding the piggy bank to maintain the lie, subsidise the public sector and line their own pockets.
Will people please stop telling us to be more patient? I'm sick and tired of hearing that. Inflation, at least according to most people, is still hovering at around 40%, caused largely their ham-fisted handling of the utilities subsidies. None of us need to be reminded that the bills we were paying before were cloud cuckoo land, but to hit us all with increases of 800 - 1000% overnight was utter madness and further fuelled the inflation machine.
Neither do i want to hear any more of Macri and Vidal's puke-inducing 'together we can build a better country.....' speeches. Actions speak louder than words.

 

[sesamosinsal]

The only thing that fancy chart tells me, apart from the fact the reserves only go as far back as 2014, is that the previous bunch of crooks needed to keep raiding the piggy bank to maintain the lie, subsidise the public sector and line their own pockets.

What the chart actually says is that countries in the region are losing more dollars (via imports, capital outflows, etc.) than they're bringing in (exports, investment, etc.). It's a global problem, not just one in Argentina.

It has almost nothing to do with corruption.

 

[Noesdeayer]

Bradly :
Nonetheless, apparently Argentina will continue with an overvalued peso for at least another 2 years according to an article in today's La Nacion.
This is due to
:1). A large and continued inflow of USD to benefit from the Tax Whitewash.
2) External financing like the USD 6b from the US.
3) The " eventual " arrival of substantial foreign investments.
I am not sure that Macri "feels that he can defy global trends" .I think he wants to get his own house in order first by increasing productivity and offering the Argentines a strong national currency and that domestic consumption will rise accordingly..
I am also not so sure that the US is not going to open its market.The lifting of the restriction on Argentine lemons is one example.
As far as this being " with Trump far less likely " I am also not so sure.For what it's worth in a conversation with Macri after the US elections,Trump said that he wanted " " the closest relations with the US ever ".
Go figure. It could be.

 

[sesamosinsal]

Noesdeayer,

The overvalued peso is a decision made by the Central Bank. The fact that there are dollars coming in means that they can play offense instead of defense, and offense allows them to make the decision to keep the peso overvalued or not. Keeping it overvalued is preferable because otherwise we all know that in Argentina a devalued dollar adds to inflationary pressures.

If they wanted to devalue, they could easily do so. Sturzenegger would simply buy the incoming USD, thereby drying up the market and pushing up the price. Furthermore, he could cut interest rates, which would increase the supply of pesos in the market and certainly seek the USD for refuge.

You can't increase productivity with high interest rates. Prat Gay didn't refer to them as "pelotudos" for nothing. Macri not only feels that he can defy global trends -- he said so ("I have to try") in an interview with CNN's Richard Quest -- he also thinks that he can bring back an economic recovery while maintaining monetary policies that intentionally depress the economy. Who is going to invest in an economy that has stifled demand?

As far as the U.S. lifting restrictions on lemons, that was done under the Obama administration, which like previous administrations sees trade as an instrument of U.S. foreign policy. The total value of Argentine lemons to be exported to the U.S. is around $20 million. Pocket change.

No one really knows what Trump is going to do, but he has been somewhat consistent regarding trade. Everything indicates that Trump wants to balance trade. Considering the U.S. imports far more from Argentina than it exports to Argentina, Trump's views on trade are a signifiant setback for Macri's government.

 

[Noesdeayer]

Bradly:
True.
Nonetheless,I don't feel that the consenus building factor in this society should be ignored regarding productivity and popular support for Macri's gov't.
I am firmly convinced that the majority of Argentines want their country to move forward on the road to success.
Yes,there will be setbacks.There always are.When they see the economy improving and.inflation under control,they will lend their support even if it is an upward struugle.
Economy is not 100% fiscal policy.I wouldn't undersell the domestic human element here.
Most certainly , Peronist populism has shown that it is not the way to Argentina's fulfillment as a society.