So much for herd immunity?

[MilHojas]

I wrote usually because without a vaccine, the threshold is reached after enough people just die, leaving the virus with fewer bodies to spread to ...

It depends how on deadly is the decease. If it has 1% death rate, then 1% will die eventially even if everybody gets infected, but the threshold will still be reached when about 80% of population gets infected.

It just can not spread effectively when significant number of people is immune (not because they are dead).

 

[Rich One]

Well let's keep debating when will the herd effect happen or when will the peak happen? Meanwhile over 12,000 new infections today..! Due to the cold weather more and more people will pass away...! than normal..?

 

[FrankPintor]

It depends how on deadly is the decease. If it has 1% death rate, then 1% will die eventially even if everybody gets infected, but the threshold will still be reached when about 80% of population gets infected.

It just can not spread effectively when significant number of people is immune (not because they are dead).

Yes I read that 60-80% could be enough for herd immunity, being dead is a side effect that advocates of herd immunity don’t like to highlight due to 1% being an awful lot of people.

 

[jeff1234]

CNBC is reporting a forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washingtonthat says that Covid-19 deaths in the US, by Jan 1., could reach 620,000 and the 'worst is yet to come' if states aggressively ease restrictions and people disregard public health guidance.

IHME released three new projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Murray said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and lmits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html