The economic future of Argentina part 2

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Granadaiscool

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"bigbadwolf" said:
If Argentine shoes are off high quality, Argentina still does get flooded with Chinese and Brazilian shoes(I wonder why if Argentine shoes are so good)
High-priced hand-crafted Argentinian shoes may be of high quality but Argentina may not produce -- or want to produce -- mass-manufactured low-cost shoes. It's akin to comparing apples with oranges. Argentina has never been eminent in mass manufacture, and in today's crowded marketplace, it's almost impossible to push in.
Agricultural and lifestock exports -- which at one time used to be the mainstay of the Argentinian economy -- are subject to volume and tariff restrictions from both the EU and the USA. Argentina has never managed to develop something to take their place.
In fairness, it's not only Argentina that's up the creek: innumerable other countries are. The US is in deep trouble and various crises can be seen loomin ominously on the horizon.
Argentina needs to export 3 kilo´s to import one. There is no future with an exchange like that. Where do those high quality and expensive shoes go to?
Any crisis that hits the US will hit Argentina about twice as hard


 

Elpanada

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As before Granadaiscool is making statements that Argentinas economy is going to crumble and he's basing it on very little, trying to make international problems look like local ones, making baseless predictions and so on. He may want to see Argentina go down in flames but that isn't necessarily going to happen.
 

Granadaiscool

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"Elpanada" said:
As before Granadaiscool is making statements that Argentinas economy is going to crumble and he's basing it on very little, trying to make international problems look like local ones, making baseless predictions and so on. He may want to see Argentina go down in flames but that isn't necessarily going to happen.
Reading before posting is always a good advice

 

sergio

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Ghost, I have no idea what type of wine California, Australia or Chile are exporting to Europe however I do know that all three are producing very good wines, especially California and Australia. Chile is generally better at white wine than red; Argentina overall does better with red, especially Malbec. Until recently Argentina was known for its high volume (one of the major producers in the world in terms of volume) and low quality wine. By contrast, California has been producing fine wine for considerably longer. Australia too has emerged as a major producer of quality wine. Chile, due to its far superior marketing skills and more progressive government captured a significant share of the foreign market long before Argentina got seriously into the game. As for the quality of Argentine wine today, someone posted a comment that it keeps getting better. That is very true. The poster was also correct in commenting on its unevenness. On the whole the quality of wine here is not nearly as good as that of the US, Australia or South Africa. There are some good wines here but they are not cheap. I find it hard to get a good bottle in the supermarket for less than $25 pesos - closer to $35 pesos or more is more realistic. For not much more I can buy some very interesting California wines or even good French imports in the US.
 

Granadaiscool

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"sergio" said:
Ghost, I have no idea what type of wine California, Australia or Chile are exporting to Europe however I do know that all three are producing very good wines, especially California and Australia. Chile is generally better at white wine than red; Argentina overall does better with red, especially Malbec. Until recently Argentina was known for its high volume (one of the major producers in the world in terms of volume) and low quality wine. By contrast, California has been producing fine wine for considerably longer. Australia too has emerged as a major producer of quality wine. Chile, due to its far superior marketing skills and more progressive government captured a significant share of the foreign market long before Argentina got seriously into the game. As for the quality of Argentine wine today, someone posted a comment that it keeps getting better. That is very true. The poster was also correct in commenting on its unevenness. On the whole the quality of wine here is not nearly as good as that of the US, Australia or South Africa. There are some good wines here but they are not cheap. I find it hard to get a good bottle in the supermarket for less than $25 pesos - closer to $35 pesos or more is more realistic. For not much more I can buy some very interesting California wines or even good French imports in the US.
On a side note, most bodega´s in Argentina are foreign owned, especially Chile
I don´t know the exact figures but the wine export in Argentina is less then 2% of the total exports

 

bigbadwolf

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"Granadaiscool" said:
Any crisis that hits the US will hit Argentina about twice as hard
What's the logic behind this assertion? Argentina is agriculturally self-sufficient, unlike many European countries, and so the breakdown of the international trading system may not have the same impact, particularly if Chavez keeps supplying oil. The same cannot be said of Western Europe and the USA. I remain sanguine about the prospects of countries such as Argentina and Uruguay simply because of their food self-sufficiency.
 

Granadaiscool

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"bigbadwolf" said:
Any crisis that hits the US will hit Argentina about twice as hard
What's the logic behind this assertion? Argentina is agriculturally self-sufficient, unlike many European countries, and so the breakdown of the international trading system may not have the same impact, particularly if Chavez keeps supplying oil. The same cannot be said of Western Europe and the USA. I remain sanguine about the prospects of countries such as Argentina and Uruguay simply because of their food self-sufficiency.
Because if there will be global recession the price will go down hard which leads to less income for the Argentine state. As there is already almost a trade deficit there is no room for a decline in the state income.
There will also be an huge capital flight like there was in 1998-2002
 

Granadaiscool

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Trade surplus in the first six months was about 5 billion dollar
Depth service next year is about 8 billion
Trade surplus in july was lower as expected, due to surging imports
 
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