I was there reporting.
It was similar to the
pension bill riots late last year but much smaller in size - bands of organised
protestors agitators mostly. The police expect them, form a cordon around Congress, then the agitators start throwing rocks and launching fireworks at the police. They rush police lines to try and draw them out and start a confrontation. The police respond with tear gas, and rubber bullets if things escalate. There are also motorised police in side streets waiting to isolate and pick off stragglers in between forays. Opposition lawmakers have been known to exit onto the front steps of Congress during these clashes in order to get a light dose of tear gas and then go back inside and claim they have been repressed.
A lot of these guys are given handouts for their attendance and violence is encouraged to raise your profile inside the
manifestante organisations. The system behind these professional agitators is really interesting, going back to when the unions grew in power under Peron and then split and went against him. They are intricate political and criminal organisations - similar to
barra bravas - with ties to legitimate social and political movements where from they get their funding. In Argentina, they are essential to a lot of the political agenda as there are so many protests in Argentina - several each week in Buenos Aires impeding transit - that in order to make their point heard, some groups will call on these groups to escalate the protests with violence and illegal roadblocks for more media coverage.
Then there are police infiltrators who are supposed to pinpoint trouble spots and point out agitators to uniformed police, but the opposition say that under this government the police infiltrators have also been agitating protests to paint opposition groups in a bad light. I haven't seen any concrete evidence of this however.
These types of protest have not increased in frequency under this government, under the previous Kirchnerite governments they were just as apparent.
There are though many legitimate protesters in Argentina (its a national sport here) who far out number the agitators. Their legitimate protests are often upset by the agitators (like what happened at the pension bill protests).
What MarkArgentina said is correct. The true bellwether is when middle class citizens join protests as to which way national sentiment is going. The first time this happened with Macri was in the immediate aftermath of the pension bill riots when there was a large
cacerolazo that was
heard in many affluent barrios like Palermo and Recoleta — places that consistently vote over 70% for the governing alliance. There were also
many middle-class cacerolazos under CFK's administration.
There is some probability that Perry's statement may come true. Under any government in Argentina there are
nearly always disturbances towards the end of the year in December. This is because Congress is approaching summer recess so important bills are being rushed through the floor, income is hard hit as inflation adjustments to salaries wont happen for several months yet and December is a very expensive month with Christmas, holidays and general price-rise opportunism across the commercial sector. It is also the time of year were many Argentines have to fight for the conditions of their income tax adjustments and the conditions of their bi-annual bonus payments. The climate too lends a small hand to increased attendance and passion at protests.
Lootings of businesses are also common at this time of year.
With this in mind, it has been a tough year for Argentines and the majority of them are very unhappy with the government, even its supporters. The IMF deal is emblematic of the crisis. In my opinion though there wont though be a 'revolt', as Perry says, so long as the middle class keep their faith in the government's long term economic plan - which is actually far more healthy and solid than anyone really gives them credit for.
