Thoughts on Fernandez, IMF, Morales, and Argentine politics?

[JeffR]

I've been watching this situation develop since October and am surprised that Fernandez isn't more pragmatic in dealing with the different players involved. This isn't a comment about whether or not Morales should be in Argentina. However, I could see the problem Fernandez was creating for himself, and if I could, surely the people active in governing the country could too.

Last week when the Argentine negotiating team announced the debt negotiations were going well, and Fernandez announced that the IMF would arrive "within the next few days" without giving a date, and when there was no corresponding statement from the IMF, I figured the game was moving to the next level. And now, here it is (both articles say basically the same thing):

US warns Argentina that IMF deal is threatened by ties with leftist allies

Senior Trump administration official tells Bloomberg that sheltering Evo Morales and engaging with Nicolás Maduro crosses a red line – and it could cost Argentina investment in the Vaca Muerta shale fields.

www.batimes.com.ar

EE.UU. pone en duda inversiones para Argentina por el asilo a Evo Morales

El Gobierno de Trump también está molesto por la relación del presidente con Maduro. Y advierte que está en riesgo el respaldo del FMI y los fondos para desarrollar Vaca Muerta.

www.perfil.com

My question for those who understand the politics in Argentina better than I do is, How will this eventually play out?

I know it is sort of a crystal ball question, and there are also bigger geopolitical issues at work. But, will Fernandez be pragmatic or stick with ideology, come what may?

 

[Bajo_cero2]

In my opinion, you are underestimating the alliance with Evo, the rol of Argentina in South American politics, Russia and China while you are overestimating the IMF and the US. This is probably because you were accustomed to the puppet of Macri who was a national shame, but he is over.

Fernandez is going to walk away from the US and the IMF in the most polite possible way.

He has clear that there is no win win relationship with the US through the IMF.

Argentina is going to support Evo. The question is how far. In the Argentine history, there were military black operations in Bolivia and Nicaragua in the 80´s. Particularly in Bolivia, the US´s pretensions failed because Argentina intervention.

 

[Johnny]

I've been watching this situation develop since October and am surprised that Fernandez isn't more pragmatic in dealing with the different players involved. This isn't a comment about whether or not Morales should be in Argentina. However, I could see the problem Fernandez was creating for himself, and if I could, surely the people active in governing the country could too.

Last week when the Argentine negotiating team announced the debt negotiations were going well, and Fernandez announced that the IMF would arrive "within the next few days" without giving a date, and when there was no corresponding statement from the IMF, I figured the game was moving to the next level. And now, here it is (both articles say basically the same thing):

US warns Argentina that IMF deal is threatened by ties with leftist allies

Senior Trump administration official tells Bloomberg that sheltering Evo Morales and engaging with Nicolás Maduro crosses a red line – and it could cost Argentina investment in the Vaca Muerta shale fields.

www.batimes.com.ar

EE.UU. pone en duda inversiones para Argentina por el asilo a Evo Morales

El Gobierno de Trump también está molesto por la relación del presidente con Maduro. Y advierte que está en riesgo el respaldo del FMI y los fondos para desarrollar Vaca Muerta.

www.perfil.com

My question for those who understand the politics in Argentina better than I do is, How will this eventually play out?

I know it is sort of a crystal ball question, and there are also bigger geopolitical issues at work. But, will Fernandez be pragmatic or stick with ideology, come what may?

Anybody who says they know how it will work out should be avoided. They don't know. Same for the people who know what the blue dollar will be on February 1, March 1.....or Monday. They don't know either.

Except for maybe Bajo.

 

[toongeorges]

I think at least one can see a trend where Argentina will isolate itself again from the rest of the world.

Expect no foreign investment, foreign companies have already left. Anything that is imported will cost at least 3 times more than elsewhere. Inflation will become hyperinflation. It will all be the fault of the IMF and the US.

 

[Weyland]

In my opinion, you are underestimating the alliance with Evo, the rol of Argentina in South American politics, Russia and China while you are overestimating the IMF and the US. This is probably because you were accustomed to the puppet of Macri who was a national shame, but he is over.

Bajo is right. While Macri was a puppet of the US, the Ks are puppets of China. They allowed China to build a military base in Patagonia.

 

[jblaze5779]

Argentines better brush up on their Chinese because they'll be running this place within a few years.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Peron started the remoteness from the UK and the US while the right of Argentina began the approach to the United States and the MIF with disastrous economic results since 1956.
This debate was closed by 1982 when the military coup was betrayed by the US because they supported the UK. I know you have to be retarded if you think the US was going to be on Argentina’s side on that war but they thought so and the Macrismo is the second part of that band of idiots.
There is a famous statement of Massera (the Navy leader of that triumvirate) where he said that Argentina should jump the fence refering to the iron courtain. Until then only peronist and the left though so but not the extreme right.
In fact, the best buyer of wheat was the Soviet Union and the Invencible was sunk using Russian intellegence.
Since then there is a consensus regarding to ally with China and Russia instead of the US and UK who are seen as the enemy.

 

[mc kenna]

I wanna be friends with russia and china due to their wonderful track record of fair treatment of their own people, far far better than the US and the UK, oh and also for their famous humanitarian spirit and human rights
Come on who's with me?? viva el che y la revolucion lol

 

[JeffR]

In my opinion, you are underestimating the alliance with Evo, the rol of Argentina in South American politics, Russia and China while you are overestimating the IMF and the US. This is probably because you were accustomed to the puppet of Macri who was a national shame, but he is over.

Fernandez is going to walk away from the US and the IMF in the most polite possible way.

He has clear that there is no win win relationship with the US through the IMF.

Argentina is going to support Evo. The question is how far. In the Argentine history, there were military black operations in Bolivia and Nicaragua in the 80´s. Particularly in Bolivia, the US´s pretensions failed because Argentina intervention.

In the back of my mind I was thinking about the exact scenario you describe. Thank you also for the Argentine history; I knew about the U.S. in Central America but wasn't aware that Argentina intervened.

 

[JeffR]

I think at least one can see a trend where Argentina will isolate itself again from the rest of the world.

Expect no foreign investment, foreign companies have already left. Anything that is imported will cost at least 3 times more than elsewhere. Inflation will become hyperinflation. It will all be the fault of the IMF and the US.

Why do you say the "fault of the IMF and the U.S."? I am not arguing, but my thinking is it takes two (or more) sides to make a deal. So, what do you see to direct fault to one of the parties?